Relações internacionais: o comércio exterior do Brasil e Rio Grande do Norte no período de 1999 a 2008

The period post-war promoted several changes in relations economic, political and social world. Since then, a new division international of labor has delineated, with the great growth of Asian countries. In the field of international relations, the world still appears to transition is not completed because the old institutions were not replaced by new ones and the power of the United States as a major capitalist country remains unshaken, even with the emergence and strengthening of new economic global blocs. With globalization, Brazil emerges with more intensity in the face of new issues global, although its share in transactions trade global hasn‟t changed accordingly. In this sense, the objective of this dissertation is to examine, in a descriptive and critical the development of international relations and trade of Brazil and Rio Grande do Norte with the main blocs in the world from 1999 to 2008. As a secondary objective: to identify the assumptions theoretical that underpinned the decisions governments of the FHC and Lula, in particular, the interference of these terms in international relations and foreign trade. Adopted as the procedure methodological the literature review of the subject, as well as collection and processing of the data of foreign trade. During the Cardoso government has undergone the substantial growth in imports, as part of the economic policy of anti-inflationary, generating large deficits trade. From the first to the second term, with the inflection of exchange rate policy the country has resumed surpluses trade. The choice of government of the autonomy participation increased the relative share of the traditional blocks in total foreign trade and reduced the share of MERCOSUL. In the Lula government, there is the maintenance of some elements of the economic policy of the previous government and the partial shift in the conduct of foreign policy, with the option of autonomy through diversification, raising its stake on the blocks and other emerging countries in total foreign trade Brazilian and reducing the contribution of the traditional blocks such as NAFTA and the European Union. A trend observed in the previous government and deepened in the Lula government was the growth in commodity exports and the decline of manufactured products, confirming the model of conservative insertion of Brazilian exports. The Rio Grande do Norte followed the trend Brazilian in the growth of foreign trade, including in participating conservative, given that the products exported by the state are basically coming from horticulture irrigated and agribusiness. However, in the aspect of destination export, the state followed trajectory distinct from that in the Lula government, with the deepening of trade relations with traditional blocks, especially with the European Union and NAFTA

Economia do petróleo e desenvolvimento: estudo exploratório sobre as perspectivas do pré-sal brasileiro

A pesquisa analisa as possibilidades abertas pela exploração de petróleo na camada pré-sal, avaliando de que maneira a expansão do setor petrolífero poderá acelerar o crescimento econômico brasileiro e contribuir para novas estratégias de desenvolvimento. A hipótese inicial é que o Brasil enfrenta uma restrição estrutural de balanço de pagamentos, que poderá ser amenizada pela diminuição das importações de petróleo e derivados e pelo aumento do valor exportado no setor. Para avaliá-la são resgatados aspectos históricos e geopolíticos relacionados ao petróleo, assim como são tratadas as características microeconômicas dos recursos naturais não renováveis. Também se consideram questões de ordem macroeconômica, como a especialização produtiva da economia brasileira e sua inserção no comércio internacional, discutindo como o desenvolvimento da indústria petrolífera poderá afetá-las. Para tanto, a investigação fundamenta-se na teoria estruturalista e nos modelos de crescimento com ênfase na restrição externa. O trabalho examina ainda os casos da Rússia, Venezuela e México para avaliar a experiência de países exportadores de petróleo. Como contribuição, um modelo de crescimento é utilizado para realizar simulações acerca do Brasil, cobrindo o período 2013-2020 com a formulação de três cenários. A partir dos resultados discute-se que a necessidade de consecução das metas fiscal e de inflação pode desencadear políticas restritivas que limitam a utilização da folga fiscal e externa, oriundas do pré-sal, para induzir o crescimento. Conclui-se que um círculo virtuoso de desenvolvimento com mudança estrutural depende não apenas da modernização produtiva, mas também, e principalmente, da evolução político-institucional do país

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Estudo do óleo das sementes de Carthamus tinctorius L. Para produção de biodiesel

Most of the energy consumed worldwide comes from oil, coal and natural gas. These sources are limited and estimated to be exhausted in the future, therefore, the search for alternative sources of energy is paramount. Currently, there is considerable interest in making trade sustainable biodiesel, a fuel alternative to fossil fuels, due to its renewable nature and environmental benefits of its use in large scale. This trend has led the Brazilian government to establish a program (Probiodiesel) with the aim of introducing biodiesel into the national energy matrix, by addition of 5% biodiesel to conventional diesel in 2010 to foster not only the increase of renewable energy, but reduce imports of crude oil. This work evaluates different methods of extraction of oil Carthamus tinctorius L., their characterization by IR, 1H and 13C NMR, HPLC and TG and their use in the production of methyl ester (molar ratio of oil / alcohol 1:6, and NaOH catalyst). The physico-chemical parameters (acid value, density, viscosity, saponification index and surface tension) of oil and biodiesel were also described. The produced biodiesel had a yield of 93.65%, was characterized in relation to their physicochemical properties showing satisfactory results (density=875 kg/m3, viscosity = 6.22 mm2/s, AI = 0.01 mg (NaOH) /g) compared with the values established by the the National Agency Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels

Contabilidade do crescimento pelo lado da demanda agregada: uma proposta de cálculo das contribuições ao crescimento pela demanda agregada para o Brasil de, 2000 a 2009, utilizando matrizes insumo-produto

The demand side growth accounting studies the demand aggregate component contributions in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Traditionally, international and national organizations that uses the traditional method for calculating such contributions. However, this method does not take into account the effect the induction of imports by the various components of aggregate demand on the calculation of these. As an alternative to this method are presented others studies that consider this effect, as the alternative method proposed by Lara (2013), the attribution method, proposed by Kranendonk and Verbruggen (2005) and Hoekstra and van der Helm (2010), and the method the sraffian supermultiplier, by Freitas and Dweck (2013). Was made a summary of these methods, demonstrating the similarities and differences between them. Also, in the aim to contribute to the study of the subject was developed the “method of distribution of imports” that aims to distribute imports for the various components of aggregate demand, through the information set forth in the input-output matrices and tables of resources and uses. Were accounted the contributions to the growth of macroeconomic aggregates for Brazil from 2001 to 2009 using the method of distribution, and realized comparison with the traditional method, understanding the reasons for the differences in contributions. Later was done comparisons with all the methods presented in this work, between the calculated contributions to the growth of the components of aggregate demand and the domestic and external sectors. Was verified that the methods that exist in the literature was not enough to deal with this question, and given the alternatives for contributions to the growth presented throughout this work, it is believed that the method of distribution provides the best estimates for the account of contributions by aggregate demand sector. In particular, the main advantage of this method to the others is the breakdown of the contribution of imports, separated by aggregate demand component, which allows the analysis of contribution of each component to GDP growth. Thus, this type of analysis helps to study the pattern of growth of the Brazilian economy, not just the theoretical point of view, but also empirical and basis for the decision to economic policies