Influência de eventos hidrológicos extremos na qualidade da água de reservatórios na região tropical semiárida

Reservoirs are artificial ecosystems, intermediate between rivers and lakes, with diferent morphological and hydrological characteristics that can provide many important benefits to society. However, the use of this water for human consumption, watering livestock, leisure, irrigated agricultural production and pisciculture development, directly influence the increase loading of nutrients to aquatic environments and contribute to acceleration of eutrophication. Furthermore, global climate models are predicting a higher occurrence of extreme events such as floods and severe droughts, which will create hydrological stresses in lakes. In the semiarid northeast we can see the occurrence of these events, the drought of the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 was the worst drought in 60 years, according to the National Water Agency (ANA). Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the quality of the semiarid tropical water sources, identifying temporal patterns in periods with extreme hydrological events (floods and severe droughts). The study results showed that Gargalheiras and Cruzeta reservoirs presented significative changes in the limnological variables between rain and severe drought periods, with better appearance and in the most of the water quality variables in the rainy season and higher nutrientes concentrations and high electrical conductivity values in severe season, indicating decay of its quality. However, we found diferent behaviors between the reservoirs in severe drought. While Gargalheiras showed a typical behavior of the region, with high concentrations of algal biomass, indicating the worsening eutrophication, Cruzeta demonstrated a colapse in the total phytoplankton biomass, evidenced by the decrease in chla concentrations. This fact occurred because the low depth and proximity with the sediment facilited the inorganic solids resuspension and, consequently, resulted in turbid water column and light by limitation. In addition, the different behaviors between the reservoirs indicate that the responses of these environments problems such as extreme events must take into account factors such the region climate, size, depth of the reservoir and the basin characteristics.

Os impactos na qualidade da água e do solo de um manancial tropical do semiárido devido ao uso e ocupação e evento de seca extrema

Human activities alter soil features, causing the deterioration of its quality. Land use and occupation in drainage basins of water supply reservoirs can change the environmental soil quality and, thus, lead to the expansion of the soil potential of being a diffuse pollution source. In the Brazilian semiarid region, the soils are generally shallow with high susceptibility to erosion, favoring the sediment and nutrients input into the superficial waterbodies, contributing to the eutrophication process. Moreover, this region has high temperatures and high evapotranspiration rates, that are generally higher than the precipitation rates, causing a negative hydric balance and big volume losses by evaporation. The water volume reduction increases the nutrients’ concentration and, therefore, exacerbates the eutrophication process, deteriorating the water quality. Thereby, we hypothesized that the eutrophication process of semiarid reservoirs is intensified both by the extreme climatic events of prolonged drought, and by the diffuse pollution due to the basin land use and occupation. The study aimed to test whether the land use and occupation activities of the basin and the severe drought events intensify the eutrophication process of a semiarid tropical reservoir. To verify the influence of human activities carried out in the water supply of drainage basin on the soil quality and the eutrophication process, we conducted the mapping of the kind of use and occupation, as well the calculation of erosion for each activity and the soil quality evaluation of the riparian zone and water quality of the water supply. For the water analyses, the samplings were carried out monthly in the deeper point, near dam. For the soil, deformed composite samples were taken for the physical and chemical attributes analysis, according to the identified land use and occupation classes. The results showed that extreme droughts drastically reduces the water volume and elevates the nutrients concentration, contributing, thus, to a bigger degradation of water quality. Furthermore, we verified that human activities in the drainage basin promote the diffuse pollution, by increasing the soil susceptibility to erosion and nutrients contents. Summarizing, our results support the investigated hypothesis that activities of land use and occupation and extreme drought generate a combined effect that provide the intensification of eutrophication process of semiarid reservoirs.

Sistemática integrativa de Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 e Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991 (Teleostei: Cichlidae) das bacias hidrográficas do Nordeste do Brasil

Understanding the historical and ecological relationships which are influent in current biological diversity is one of the most challenging tasks of evolutionary biology. Recent systematics emphasizes the need of integrative approaches to delimit different lineages and species. The northeastern Brazil, mostly placed in Caatinga biome, is characterized by a semi-arid weather, low precipitation and seasonal behavior of rivers. This region is regarded lacking as ichthyological knowledge and one of the most threatened by anthropic activities. Further, will be affected by a massive water diverpsion work that will transfer waters from São Francisco basin, to other major four basins: Jaguaribe, Apodi-Mossoró, Piranhas-Açu and Paraiba do Norte. Loss of diversity and richness, hibridizitation, community interactions changes, population homogenization, changes in water quality and flow regime, are examples of environmental impacts already related with similar works. The present study aims to investigate morphological and molecular variation of Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 and Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991, two cichlid species present in northeastern Brazil basins. Further, the study aims to evaluate the influence of geomorphological and climatic processes in this variation, and point some possible impacts of the artificial connectivity which can be brought by São Francisco interbasin water transfer to their population dynamics. Geometric morphometrics and phylogeographical analysis were used to investigate the populations from three different hydrological regions. Our results showed a significant morphological variation of populations from basins that are involved in the São Franscisco s diversion project, not related to an ancient separation between populations, emphasizing morphological variation which could represent a set of plastic responses to the variable hydrological regime in Northeastern Brazil. The role of plastical responses in naturally variable habitats as well as the potential disturbs that could be brought by the interbasin water transfer works are discussed here. Further, our molecular data allowed us to make inferences about species distribution and their taxonomy, and identification of a potential new species of Crenicichla for São Francisco river basin. Our data also allowed to identify some shared haplotypes for both species, which could be related to lineage sorting scenarios or recent gene flow between populations. However a strong structure in most of the pairwise comparisons between populations for both species was revealed. Climatic events such as Atlantic forest regression during the Pleistocene, sea level fluctuations and dispersion by paleorivers in the mouth of Apodi-Mossoró river, and neotectonic events regulating the connection between drainages are likely to have had a contribution for the actual lineages distribution in northeastern Brazil. Further, analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA and SAMOVA) showed that the actual basin s isolation is an important factor to molecular variation, in spite of the signal of recent contact between some basins. Different genetic diversity patterns between species could be related to multiple historic events of colonization, basins landscapes or biological differences. The present study represents the first effort of integrative systematics involving fish species of northeastern Brazil, and showed important morphological and molecular patterns which could be irrecoverably affected by the artificial connection that might be caused by the São Francisco interbasin water transfer

Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

Militância, organização e mobilização antiproibicionista da maconha: coletivos, eventos e marchas em Natal (RN)

Based on the proposal entitled anti-prohibitionist, contrary to prohibition and illegality of cannabis and its use, the anti-prohibitionist Collectives proposes to discuss the topic of drugs, especially marijuana, aiming decriminalization and legalization of this psychoactive. With this idea was articulated anti-prohibitionist movement in Natal, by organizing collectives that discuss issues related to drug use and conduct activities directed to this issue, such as Marijuana Marches and Cycles of Debates anti-prohibitionist. In this study we sought to understand the positioning in social and cultural terms, the marijuana users participating of the collectives, on the situation of illegality of their actions, in front of social, legal and moral question involved in the illicit psychoactive, through initiatives conferences, events and demonstrations for this purpose

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Eventos de oralidade em aulas de língua portuguesa: um estudo de caso

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo investigar el tratamiento ofrecido al estudio de la lenguaje en la modalidad oral en clases de lengua portuguesa en los 3º y 4º ciclos del Nivel Fundamental a la luz de concepciones sociointeracionistas de lenguaje. Para tal, tomamos como referencia las contribuciones de Bakhtin (1992) Marcuschi (2005), Batista (2001), Antunes (2009), Bagno (2002), Suassuna (2009), Ramos (2002), Castilho (2000), Oliveira (2003), entre otros, como también tomamos como referencia los objetivos establecidos en los programas oficiales, entre los cuales están los PCN de lengua portuguesa, el PNLD y el regimiento escolar. El campo de pesquisa seleccionado fue una escuela pública de la ciudad de Parnamirim donde los datos fueran colectados en visitas, en las entrevistas grabadas con los sujetos y también durante las observaciones a las clases. Hecho estos procedimientos de coleta de datos se hizo su análisis que estuvo vinculada al referencial teórico. Los resultados de la pesquisa indican características en el tratamiento ofrecido al lenguaje oral que refleja, principalmente, una concepción de lengua y lenguaje adoptada por los profesores aún muy vinculada a las concepciones estructuralistas, sin lograr una práctica que contemple la oralidad como objeto de estudio

Turismo de eventos como estratégia no combate à sazonalidade: uma análise na hotelaria de Natal - RN

The aim of this work is to analyse the tourism events and the performance of this segment from market as strategy in the combat of Natal's hotel seasonality, in the executives/managers's vision from this sector. Two searches were realized to turn available this study: Inicialy a bibliographic search involving the concepts associated with the tematic in question so that it arranges the embasament theoric-scientific and a survey from facts through the country search, where it was applicable in the establishments of work's population with the auxiliary from a formulary answered by a personal interview. The analyses techniques through facts were: estatistic descritive and Kolmogorov-smirnov test.Among the results found, it was verified that the main reasons alleged by the hotels to ingress in the segment from the events were the alinement from the competitive company, the diversification in the options in the sense of occupy the establishments during the period of low season and answer to the demand of market. Investigated the profile from the events occured in the Natal hotels referring to the port, public origin , kinds of events and frequency from their realizations, as well as , the capacity from these establishments to attend this segment.It was noticed that in spite of the hotels agree that the events are important estrategies to combat the seasonality, the establishments still suffer with the flutuation, what can be justified from the moment that it's considered that the events also behave from seasonal manner, having more concentration in certain periods from the year. It was evaluated that the main advantage noticed by the realization from the hotels's events is the utilization from alimentation and drinking services, surpassing the advantage from elevation of taxes occupation from the apartments

Estratégia pública de gestão ambiental :uma contribuição para a realização de eventos públicos

The present study is included in the environmental international theme, approaching the search for the environmental conformity in public events. It describes the main environmental impacts, objects of the study Sound Disturbances, implications concerning the increase in the Volume of Traffic and in the volume of Solid Residues generated in the surroundings of the event. The methodology used consists of the report of the case study of the festivity called Carnatal, held in Natal/RN, in December of 2001. As a work method, it was used a quantitative evaluation of the sound intensity level, according to the effective legislation, an electronic count of volume of traffic and an evaluation of the productive performance of the means of production of public urban sanitation company used in the event. The results pinpoint the recognition of the impacts generated by the event and the proposition of a Program of Environmental Management, aiming at, in addition to the establishment of the instruments and goals for the mitigation of the impacts, defining the role of the social actors in the search for the environmental conformity of festivities