Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Efetividade da doxiciclina na profilaxia contra letptospirose

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis of considerable medical and economical importance that affects humans in both urban and rural contexts, as well as domestic animals and wild fauna. Leptospira interrogans is the causative agent and is transmitted to humans by indirect contact with contaminated soil or water. The clinical syndromes include sub clinical infection, self-limited anicteric febrile illness, and severe and potentially fatal illness, known as Weil´s syndrome. In developed countries, leptospirosis is related to occupational or recreational activities while in developing countries, outbreaks occur during floods. In those regions, traditional strategies to prevent the transmission are difficulties to be implemented because of costs and lack of community acceptance. In addition, no efficient vaccine is available for human use. Several studies have suggested that chemoprophylaxis with doxycycline pre and post-exposure may be effective to prevent leptospirosis. Leptospirosis has been reported in rural areas of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil since 1985 in rice farmers who present the anicteric illness. The disease cause great social and economics impact. The study was conducted in São Miguel where an epidemic of leptospirosis in rice farmers was reported. The main objective was to determine the efficacy of doxycycline in preventing Leptospira exposure. A taxa de soroprevalência de leptospirose na população estudada antes e após a colheita foi de 14,2% (n=22) e de 16.6% (n=27) respectivamente. Anti-Leptospira serology was determined for 61 subjects in two instances, pre and post-exposure to potential contaminated water. There was an increased risk of 29.0 per cent in acquiring infection for individuals that did not use doxycycline. In addition, an increased risk of 30.0 % observed in farmers who did not use protection when exposed to Leptospira. The adhesion to preventive chemoprophylaxis was 55.7%. Therefore doxycycline, under specific circunstances appears to be an effective alternative to protect against leptosprirosis infection. A large sample composed of individuals to adhere to preventive therapy is needed to define time, dosage and length of use of doxycycline in this area

Uso urbano não potável de água de lagoas do sistema de drenagem de Natal

The detention and infiltration ponds of urban drainage system has function to protect the population from undesirable effects of floods. In general these ponds are not completly used and it potential is wasted. As it are disseminated at different places at cities it can reduce costs with water transport and permit water preservation of best quality. Some it utilities includes use in green areas irrigation, industrial among than cooling towers and boiler, soil compaction, cleaning urban road, pisciculture and fire fighting system. The quality these water is influenced by anauthorized sewage in the drainage system. This study was performed in six detention and infiltration ponds at drainage system of Natal, which aim was to verify the non-portable use these ponds on urban environment. As indirect aim would to incentive the water utilization these ponds as a water source to another uses in urban environment. These ponds represents the characteristics of detention and infiltration of Natal city and consequently of Brazil. As the water quality, the ponds presents following characteristics: three has apparently good quality, other showed intermediate condition and two had water polluted. Were performed twenty sample in each ponds and the following parameters assessed: pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, electrical conductivity, coliform thermotolerant, ammonia, organic nitrogen, TKN, nitrate, total phosphorus and alkalinity, bicarbonate, chloride, total hardness, calcium and magnesium hardness, total solids, TSS, TDS, COD and SAR°. To utilization on pisciculture we recommend use in ponds which presents the best quality. Only one pond presented higher pollutants and it not being appropriated for use in cooling tower. The content of solids suspension restricted the water use in all ponds in boilers. As water use in soil compaction, cleaning urban road and fire fighting system the water from these ponds are not appropriated. However, the recommended limits from literature are to domestic sewage, due to this, the parameters are restrictive to diminish the sanitary risk that could be offered with it utilization. The infiltration velocity of water these assessed ponds restrict a moderato use, however the effects are potentiated only in soil less sandy, which not occur in Natal. It is recommend the unrestricted irrigation utilization in ponds with best quality of water, and a restricted irrigation to ponds with worst quality of water. As load of pollutants, it is recommended a complementary treatment in those ponds whit higher load to diminish sanitary risks. In only one pond was found one helminth eggs and due to the convention formula of results, it was found for all ponds less than 1 helminth/liter eggs.

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

Avaliação de impacto ambiental e gestão dos recursos natuarias no estuário Apodi Mossoró, nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study is to investigate the eco-environmental vulnerability, its changes, and its causes to develop a management system for application of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment in the Apodi-Mossory estuary, Northeast Brazil. This analysis is focused on the interference of the landscape conditions, and its changes, due to the following factors: the oil and natural gas industry, tropical fruits industry, shrimp farms, marine salt industry, occupation of the sensitive areas; demand for land, vegetation degradation, siltation in rivers, severe flooding, sea level rise (SLR), coastal dynamics, low and flat topography, high ecological value and tourism in the region and the rapid growth of urbanization. Conventional and remote sensing data were analyzed using modeling techniques based on ArcGIS, ER-Mapper, ERDAS Imagine and ENVI software. Digital images were initially processed by Principal Component Analysis and transformation of the maximum fraction of noise, and then all bands were normalized to reduce errors caused by bands of different sizes. They were integrated in a Geographic Information System analysis to detect changes, to generate digital elevation models, geomorphic indices and other variables of the study area. A three band color combination of multispectral bands was used to monitor changes of land and vegetation cover from 1986 to 2009. This task also included the analysis of various secondary data, such as field data, socioeconomic data, environmental data and prospects growth. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment; it´s causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem, and identify the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR, and the loss of land due to coastal erosion in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary in order to establish a strategy for sustainable land use. The developed model includes some basic factors such as geology, geomorphology, soils, land use / land cover, vegetation cover, slope, topography and hydrology. The numerical results indicate that 9.86% of total study area was under very high vulnerability, 29.12% high vulnerability, 52.90% moderate vulnerability and 2.23% were in the category of very low vulnerability. The analysis indicates that 216.1 km² and 362.8 km² area flooded on 1m and 10m in sea levels respectively. The sectors most affected were residential, industrial and recreational areas, agricultural land, and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity. The results showed that changes in eco-environmental vulnerability have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the RN state, since the indicator is a function of sensitivity, exposure and status in relation to a level of damage. The model were presented as a tool to assist in indexing vulnerability in order to optimize actions and assess the implications of decisions makers and policies regarding the management of coastal and estuarine areas. In this context aspects such as population growth, degradation of vegetation, land use / land cover, amount and type of industrialization, SLR and government policies for environmental protection were considered the main factors that affect the eco-environmental changes over the last three decades in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary.

Alterações dos parâmetros climáticos no município de Apodi-RN, antes e após a construção da barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, e formação do lago

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal analisar as mudanças ocorridas no clima local onde o município de Apodi/RN está inserido, em virtude da construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi. Foram utilizadas para o tratamento dos dados climáticos precipitação pluviométrica, umidade relativa do ar e temperatura técnicas estatísticas como Desvio Padrão, Teste T, Coeficiente de Variação e Média aritmética, além do modelo matemático. Para o balanço hídrico foi aplicado o método de Thornthwait (1948), considerando dois períodos em análise: o anterior e posterior a construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, respectivamente 1995 e 2005. os resultados obtidos permitiram inferir que a hipótese inicial levantada se confirma, ou seja, a construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, está influenciando diretamente numa alteração no que concerne à condição atmosférica local, especialmente no parâmetro umidade relativa do ar. Quanto ao balanço hídrico, observou-se a predominância do déficit hídrico especialmente entre os meses de junho a janeiro, período de estiagem; um excedente ocorrente entre os meses de maio e junho, conseqüente do período chuvoso; e uma reposição hídrica antecedendo e sucedendo este período, chuvoso, ou seja, compreendendo os meses de fevereiro a junho. Todas as considerações e análises poderão contribuir para o planejamento de abastecimento d´água, a irrigação, auxílio na previsão de enchentes e estiagens, bem como o manejo do uso da água subterrânea

A percepção dos moradores da comunidade do Passo da Pátria em Natal-RN

This essay: The perception environmental of the Passo da Pátria dwellers in Natal-RN has as its goal, investigate the perception of the dwellers in an degraded environment in ways of urbanizing, at the Potengi River riverine. This is an area in zone environmental risk, which year after year was even forgotten by the municipality, but which attracted a huge estranger public because of its facility in access urbanized areas in Natal at the same rate of its natural riches from the mangue and the sea. Front to problems of economical nature as scarce job offers, its habitants build their dwellings without any kind order or social protection, occupying an inadequate space for the well keeping of the urban environmental equilibrium. The analyzed community is exposed to water floods, tropical diseases, and to criminal problems like gangsters and drug dealers. We propose in such essay observe the connivance of the dwellers with the natural environment and their expectations o citizen transformations. This essay has as its bases the studies of Tuan (1983), Nunes (2000) and principally in Wilhem Reich (1998) in who we found our concept of perception, that here plays like an important analytical category to confront our corpus. Our first chapter debates the concept of place, not in an historical materialistic vision, but within an phenomenological survey; the second chapter presents the impacts of the urbanization in the community perception, and in the third one is analyzed the perception of the Passo da Pátria community. Based in this analyzes we confirmed that the conditions of living of the dwellers are extremely dangerous; but, the most of them do not see such dangers, even saying that are well living in its community

Reservatório Tabatinga (Macaíba-RN): qualidade ambiental, conflitos e uso

The reservoirs are water sources built along the fluvial basins, between rivers and dams made by concrete or earth. In Brazil they are built for different purposes, standing out the generation of energy (hydroelectric power station), flowing regulation, water reserves and flooding control, therefore they have played and still play an important role in the modern society.In the Northeastern semiarid region, they are typically used to supply cities and as a source of food.In the state of Rio Grande do Norte, the large reservoirs are intended for the same purpose.The cities settled in the riverbanks, or which have river channels crossing them, face flooding related problems. In the city of Macaíba-RN, flooding occurred systematically during the rainy season, causing great inconvenience to the local population.As product of the collective claim Tabatinga Reservoir in Jundiaí river was built, upstream of the city. Facing this background, this thesis aimed to assess the sócio-environmental quality of this reservoir.To achieve this goal, methodologies pointed to assess water quality along with the aplication of a questionnaire were used aimed to verify the quality of water and to know the perception of the residents from urban and rural área settled near to the reservoir was performed. The results showed the existence of conflicts of residents of rural communities and the presence of the reservoir, while for the city's population, the reservoir is considered not only the right solution to solve flooding in urban areas, but also as economic source for the rural population. Considering the water source assessment, this study concluded that the Tabatinga Reservoir is unfit for human use, due to the presence of metals of toxicological significance with the potential to elicit damage to the genetic material of individuals that use water from this reservoir, leading to cause serious risks to health population.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Efetividade da doxiciclina na profilaxia contra letptospirose

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis of considerable medical and economical importance that affects humans in both urban and rural contexts, as well as domestic animals and wild fauna. Leptospira interrogans is the causative agent and is transmitted to humans by indirect contact with contaminated soil or water. The clinical syndromes include sub clinical infection, self-limited anicteric febrile illness, and severe and potentially fatal illness, known as Weil´s syndrome. In developed countries, leptospirosis is related to occupational or recreational activities while in developing countries, outbreaks occur during floods. In those regions, traditional strategies to prevent the transmission are difficulties to be implemented because of costs and lack of community acceptance. In addition, no efficient vaccine is available for human use. Several studies have suggested that chemoprophylaxis with doxycycline pre and post-exposure may be effective to prevent leptospirosis. Leptospirosis has been reported in rural areas of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil since 1985 in rice farmers who present the anicteric illness. The disease cause great social and economics impact. The study was conducted in São Miguel where an epidemic of leptospirosis in rice farmers was reported. The main objective was to determine the efficacy of doxycycline in preventing Leptospira exposure. A taxa de soroprevalência de leptospirose na população estudada antes e após a colheita foi de 14,2% (n=22) e de 16.6% (n=27) respectivamente. Anti-Leptospira serology was determined for 61 subjects in two instances, pre and post-exposure to potential contaminated water. There was an increased risk of 29.0 per cent in acquiring infection for individuals that did not use doxycycline. In addition, an increased risk of 30.0 % observed in farmers who did not use protection when exposed to Leptospira. The adhesion to preventive chemoprophylaxis was 55.7%. Therefore doxycycline, under specific circunstances appears to be an effective alternative to protect against leptosprirosis infection. A large sample composed of individuals to adhere to preventive therapy is needed to define time, dosage and length of use of doxycycline in this area