Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

A elasticidade da pobreza em relação ao crescimento e à desigualdade de renda no nordeste rural brasileiro de 1995 a 2009: uma análise comparativa

This work aims to analyze how the growth in average income and the change in inequality in income distribution have impacted rural poverty in the Northeast in the period 1995 to 2009. Under the approach in Kakwani (1993) e Duclos and Araar (2006), and under the assumption of log-normality of income per capita, exposed in Bourguignon (2002) and Hoffmann (2005), are calculated growth and inequality elasticities of poverty to FGT poverty measures in order to observe the behavior of the sensitivity of poverty to changes in average household income and the change in income distribution / Gini index. Concurrently, decomposes the changes in measures of poverty (proportion of poor) between growth and distribution components (first proposed by Datt and Ravallion, 1992) to assess the effect of weight change and the effect of income inequality change change on poverty. Regarding the estimation of elasticities of poverty and growth and inequality elasticities of the two methodologies used in this work - under the assumption of lognormal distribution of income and FGT measures under the by Kakwani (1993) andDuclos e Araar (2006) - though do not result in identical values, to corroborate same results, ie the long-term decline in rural poverty from 1995 to 2009 the Northeast and the greater sensitivity of the Northeast Rural Poverty, observed in this same period, income growth and change in inequality. The weight of growth and change in inequality in changing the Northeast rural poverty identified that most of the decline in rural poverty is linked to growth in average income. This result coincides with results found by Kraay (2005) for a group of countries

Desenvolvimento nacional, desenvolvimento regional e moeda: notas teóricas à luz da economia política do desenvolvimento

This work analyses the ability of National States and regions have to formulations development strategies. Redeeming the initial development concept as a conflictual process, the hypothesis is that it presents internal and external constraints, as the latter have a higher preponderance, revealed the role played by money. In this case, one can point to as sub-hypothesis that the growth models with external constraint, mainly through the balance of payments, may illustrate the fact that countries are subject to international economic interactions that limit the possibility of bringing acylating strategies well successful in overcoming backwardness. For the specific case of regions, indicates that the external constraint remains an element of embarrassment for regional development, but redeems itself the center-periphery relations in this context to discuss the role of monetary and financial system as an explanation for the disparities regional income. On the domestic front, we highlight the importance of social structures of accumulation as an element of internal cohesion necessary to achieve successful development trajectories. It points also to the importance of the State in the process rescuing some of the main theoretical contributions of the political economy of development, incorporating the concept of globalization on theoretical frameworks presented. This construction where development depends on the actions of external and internal conditions, where money plays a key role as a guideline for reflections on regional development. The attempt was to transplant our considerations on the general development to address the case of regions. Finally, we conclude by greater confidence in the hypothesis and sub-hypotheses of departure, which led to propositions of economic policies

Economia do petróleo e desenvolvimento: estudo exploratório sobre as perspectivas do pré-sal brasileiro

A pesquisa analisa as possibilidades abertas pela exploração de petróleo na camada pré-sal, avaliando de que maneira a expansão do setor petrolífero poderá acelerar o crescimento econômico brasileiro e contribuir para novas estratégias de desenvolvimento. A hipótese inicial é que o Brasil enfrenta uma restrição estrutural de balanço de pagamentos, que poderá ser amenizada pela diminuição das importações de petróleo e derivados e pelo aumento do valor exportado no setor. Para avaliá-la são resgatados aspectos históricos e geopolíticos relacionados ao petróleo, assim como são tratadas as características microeconômicas dos recursos naturais não renováveis. Também se consideram questões de ordem macroeconômica, como a especialização produtiva da economia brasileira e sua inserção no comércio internacional, discutindo como o desenvolvimento da indústria petrolífera poderá afetá-las. Para tanto, a investigação fundamenta-se na teoria estruturalista e nos modelos de crescimento com ênfase na restrição externa. O trabalho examina ainda os casos da Rússia, Venezuela e México para avaliar a experiência de países exportadores de petróleo. Como contribuição, um modelo de crescimento é utilizado para realizar simulações acerca do Brasil, cobrindo o período 2013-2020 com a formulação de três cenários. A partir dos resultados discute-se que a necessidade de consecução das metas fiscal e de inflação pode desencadear políticas restritivas que limitam a utilização da folga fiscal e externa, oriundas do pré-sal, para induzir o crescimento. Conclui-se que um círculo virtuoso de desenvolvimento com mudança estrutural depende não apenas da modernização produtiva, mas também, e principalmente, da evolução político-institucional do país

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

O papel da tecnologia cênica e seus desdobramentos para uma economia da produção cultural no nordeste

O papel da tecnologia na produção contemporânea em artes cênicas vem influenciando profundamente as formas de recepção e produção de Teatro, Dança, espetáculos de Circo, shows musicais, entre outras manifestações espetaculares organizadas. Sua aplicação se estende amplamente a outras áreas que necessitam enfatizar o caráter cênico de seus processos de fruição como é o caso dos museus, feiras de ciências, exibições e mostras em artes visuais e o aparato tecnológico de luz, som e configuração espacial usados para estes fins. Neste sentido, o desenvolvimento deste tipo de tecnologia vem gerando e alimentando cadeias produtivas que movimentam uma economia da produção cultural e criam uma rede de relações articuladas em diferentes níveis de atuação, envolvendo produtores de equipamento, fornecedores, lighting designers, cenógrafos, profissionais de sonorização, arquitetos, técnicos de montagem e operação, instituições ensino especializadas, associações de área, entre outros. O foco deste trabalho se concentra em demonstrar como a análise de demandas de tecnologia cênica articuladas pelos sistemas de produção cultural, em particular na região Nordeste do Brasil, possibilitam compreender modelos de organização em curso, contribuindo para o desenvolvimento de uma reflexão multidisciplinar acerca dos processos de produção artística de natureza cênica e como esta produção é afetada pelos limites e possibilidades dos aspectos que caracterizam uma economia destas produções

Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.