Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Estudo da circulação hidrodinâmica e da dispersão de óleo na zona costeira entre Macau e Galinhos RN

This paper presents a study on coastal hydrodynamics and the spread of an oil spill in waters off Macau and Galinhos, on the east coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte in Northeast Brazil. This area has a very marked coastal dynamic owing to the complexity of its geomorphological features, developed in a regime of semidiurnal mesotides involving reefs, spits, estuaries, mangroves, lakes and dunes. The region also plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of the state, given that the production of oil, natural gas, salt and shrimp is concentrated there. The series of oil platforms is interconnected by a pipeline system that carries oil to the local terminal. This pipeline could leak at any moment, causing immense ecological damage. To gauge the risks of an oil leak and resulting contamination of the coastal region, two hydrodynamic scenarios were simulated. The results obtained were used to implement a contaminant transport model with the creation of various oil leak scenarios modeled at different volumes (from small to large) and intensities (sporadic and continuous), at points considered critical for the model (on two platforms and at two pipeline intersections), under different wind (summer and winter) and tidal (high and low at new, full and quarter moon phases) conditions. The use of hydrodynamic circulation computer models as a tool for representing a real project design has been increasingly frequent in recent years, given that they enable the realistic simulation of the hydrodynamic circulation pattern in bodies of water and an analysis of the impacts caused by contaminants released into the water. This study used the computer models contained in SisBAHIA®, in continuous development in the area of Coastal Engineering and Oceanography at COPPE/UFRJ

Otimização de um sistema de distribuição predial de água fria: estudo de caso

This dissertation presents a methodology to the optimization of a predial system of cold water distribution. It s about a study of a case applied to the Tropical Buzios Residential Condominium, located in the Búzio s Beach, Nísia Floresta city, the east coast of the Rio Grande do Norte state, twenty kilometers far from Natal. The design of cold water distribution networks according to Norm NBR 5626 of the ABNT - Brazilian Association of Techniques Norms, does not guarantee that the joined solution is the optimal solution of less cost. It s necessary the use of an optimization methodology, that supplies us, between all the possible solutions, the minimum cost solution. In the optimization process of the predial system of water distribution of the Tropical Búzios Condominium, is used Method Granados, that is an iterative algorithm of optimization, based on the Dynamic Programming, that supplies the minimum cost s network, in function of the piezometric quota of the reservoir. For the application of this Method in ramifies networks, is used a program of computer in C language. This process is divided in two stages: attainment of the previous solution and reduction of the piezometric quota of headboard. In the attainment of the previous solution, the minors possible diameters are used that guarantee the limit of maximum speed and the requirements of minimum pressures. The piezometric quota of headboard is raised to guarantee these requirements. In the second stage of the Granados Method, an iterative process is used and it objective is to reduce the quota of headboard gradually, considering the substitution of stretches of the network pipes for the subsequent diameters, considering a minimum addition of the network cost. The diameter change is made in the optimal stretch that presents the lesser Exchange Gradient. The process is locked up when the headboard quota of desired is reached. The optimized network s material costs are calculated, and is made the analysis of the same ones, through the comparison with the conventional network s costs

Protozoários de vida livre em dois trechos da bacia hidrográfica do rio pirangi (RN): relações com a educação em ciências e preservação

The vast hidric wealth of Brazil gets its watersheds more susceptible to impacts that compromise the water quality, affecting the ecosystem stability of aquatic environments. The decrease in the quality of water resources also results in a decrease of its multiple uses, especially in tourist areas of the coast, where the continuous flow of people to these sites increases even further the probability of inappropriate behavior of both tourists and local residents. Studies regarding the microbiological communities are still scarce, especially on the free-living protozoa that play unique roles in the food chain of aquatic ecosystems. Due to the large role played by this group of microorganisms in aquatic environments, the present study aimed at identifying the genus and species of free-living protozoa present in two sections of the Pium River, east coast of Rio Grande do Norte, making an association between the its occurrence and trophic conditions of the environment in which they are, also checking the bioindicator capacity of these organisms in water quality. It also aimed to conduct a survey with students to identify the main difficulties regarding the knowledge of free-living protozoa and hydric transmission diseases in two public schools near the river studied in the Pium district, county of Parnamirim. The survey was analyzed by means of questionnaires at both schools. Students identified several activities developed Pium river, highlighting its multifunctionality and importance to the region. A total of 76 taxa of free-living protozoa was recorded, of these, 33 were ciliates, 19 flagellates and 24 sarcodia. The spatial and temporal patterns of these organisms to both points studied revealed the bioindicator potentiality of some effective species identified. However, knowledge about the free-living protozoa proved quite lagged, presenting misconceptions that show them as pathogenic organisms exclusively, totally disregarding their ecological role. In order to remedy the flaws existing in students in relation to the functional role of protozoa, workshops were planned on these microorganisms while also addressing issues related to hydric transmission diseases through lectures, recreational activities and interactive presentations. These practical activities of Science Education had the goal of bringing students the context of local water resources, aiming to promote a greater clarification regarding of the functional role of free-living protozoa in aquatic environments

Análise de risco à erosão costeira na região de Tibau do Sul/RN através de mapeamento geoambiental e análise morfodinâmica

The research area is located on the county of Tibau do Sul, in the east coast of Rio Grande do Norte State, about 80km south of the capital Natal. The tourism represents the main income activity and Pipa beach is the most visited beach in the city, annually receives a large influx of domestic and foreign tourists. Some recent studies have reported the occurrence of coastal erosion in this littoral, being the main objective of the research, analyze the existing coastal erosion, through two methodologies, the geoenvironmental mapping and beach morphodynamics. The geoenvironmental mapping was done from oblique aerial photographs and field visits, which sought to carry out first the geomorphological mapping, with the purpose of analyzing features that suggest susceptible areas to erosion, as areas without protection of natural dunes, marine terraces, or sandstones (beach-rocks and ferruginous sandstones), areas with the presence of gullies and stretches where the sea-cliffs were in direct contact with the action of the sea, representing the beginning of the beach profile. In the morphodynamic study sought to carry out the survey of the physical and morphological characteristics, the analysis of sediment grain of the beaches and finally the analysis of the morphodynamic parameters to generate a table of risk to erosion by sector of the beach. The morphodynamic parameters were defined by the methodology proposed by Short (2006), in which considers different patterns of dynamism on beaches with characteristics favorable and unfavorable to erosive profiles. The maps indicated different levels of risk to the segments of the beaches analyzed, suggesting risk to erosion low and low to moderate only in areas north and northwest of the beaches of Madeiro and Curral, and levels of moderate and high risk sectors in the south and southeast of these beaches . The beach of Pipa showed moderate levels of risk and moderate to high at the ends and high risk to erosion in the central portion. The study of the coastal environment, its morphological evolution, and areas with problems of erosion, are of fundamental importance to assist coastal management policies, giving grants for planning activities undertaken in these regions

Caracterização geológica tridimensional e monitoramento de dunas no litoral oriental do Rio Grande do Norte

This work presents geophysical and geological results obtained in a dunefield located in the east coast of Rio Grande do Norte State, with the aim to recognize the aeolian body depositional geometries to a future geologic modeling of the aeolian petroliferous reservoirs. The research, which was done in blowouts region situated at Nisia Floresta Municipally, included the characterization of external geometries with GPS and internal geometry analysis by GPR. Data was integrated in GoCAD software, where it was possible the three-dimensional characterization and interpretation of the studied deposits. The interpretation of GPR profiling allowed identifying: First-order bounding surfaces that separated the aeolian deposits of the Barreiras Formation rocks; Second-order bounding surfaces, which limit dune generations and Third-order bounding surfaces, a reactivation surface. This classification was based and adapted by the Brookfield (1977) and Kocurek (1996) propose. Four radarfacies was recognized: Radarfacies 1, progradational reflectors correlated to foresets of the dunes, Radarfacies 2, plain parallels reflectors related to sand sheets, Radarfacies 3, plain parallels reflectors associated to reworking of the blowout dune crest and Radarfacies 4, mounded reflectors associated to vegetated mound of sand or objects buried in subsurface. The GPR and GPS methods was also employed to the monitoring of dunefields susceptible to human activities in Buzios Beach, where the constructions along the blowout region and the tourism are changing the natural evolution of the deposits. This fact possibly to cause negative impacts to the coastal zone. Data obtained in Dunas Park, a unit environmental conservation, was compared with information of the Buzios Beach. There is a major tendency of erosion in Buzios, specifically in blowout corridor and blowout dune

Feira livre de Macaíba/RN : um estudo das modificações na dinâmica socioespacial (1960/2006)

The objective of the current piece of research is to reflect upon the diverse changes that have occurred in the social and spatial dynamics of the Macaíba fair in the period between 1960 and 2006. During the second half of the 19th century, Macaíba had in the commerce one of this principle economic base a contribution for which the city became one of the main commercial warehouses of the East coast of the Rio Grande do Norte region. This helped lead to the growth of Macaíba s fair, which proved to be one of the most important existing in the state until the 1970 s. In the last two decades of the 20th century, certain elements represented challenges to the fair at Macaíba. These challenges stimulated substantial changes in the fair s dynamics which include the growth and expansion of the commercial and service sector, primarily though supermarkets; consolidation among the commercial and distribution networks, represented by the Central Office of Supply of the Rio Grande do Norte S/A (Ceasa/RN), by the wholesale and refrigeration companies; and the modernization of transportation methods, which permitted an expanded reach for these networks. Even with all these changes, the fair continues to be one of the strongest aspects of the city being the center of resistance against the surge of new forms of commerce and consumption in the city (notable the supermarkets) and the diffusion of other aspects of globalization. The fair has economic importance, as it offers a popular marketplace for the commercialization of very different products and a means for supplying goods to the residents of the city and the rural communities of Macaíba and the surrounding municipalities; and socio-cultural importance in that the fair is a place where popular tradition is expressed, a place where a great number of parallel activities occur, a place for meeting again and again, of conversations, of manifestations of culture and art, and of socialization in all of its dimensions

A reafirmação do bairro:um estudo geo-histórico do bairro do Alecrim na cidade de Natal-RN

By the end of the 21st Century, economy globalization trends to show a velocity process through which market being expanded characterized by an intense going on of the internationalization of finance, after that marginalizing the periphery of the social spaces. It is clear to see that this process occurred in those less developed countries happens in an accentuated way just because income distribution that is so regressive and also because the insufficient enclosing of the social programs, we find this situation in a big part of Brazilian cities. The marginalizing social economical process observed in Natal, a city located in the east coast part of Northeast region in Brazil and that owns a population upper to 778 thousand in habitants is nearly linked to the extension of goods and services commerce. The installation of new urban activities in the city pointed out tourist activity as the greater impulsive thing in the phenomenon promotion, most of them aiming to promote Natal to the national and international scenery. It privilege strongly in the South zone with economical implementations such as shopping s centers, supermarkets, and home buildings condominiums leading to a loss of functionality of some traditional district located in central areas of the city. Notwithstanding, some spaces, for instance Alecrim district officially created in 1911, has notably resisted to the expansion of the urban process pointed out in Natal in the last years. So that this put Alecrim District as a district with originally characteristics reaffirmed along the historical process form old times. The predominance of some residential characteristics such as the incidence of some villages and a concentration of a big and confuse popular commerce distributed along streets puts Alecrim District as a resistant space in Natal. The same way analyze Alecrim District under the prism of Historic Geography because we understand this way it accomplishes a fundamental role in the theoretical methodological development of our work, just when we analyze the time as a variant in our object of study. It is still inside this theoretical field that we carry out a brief reviewing about quarter/district definition, under the optic from several registered and scientific resources taken into account along this work, because we understand that it was necessary to think this important spatial unit especially to know exactly what we are referring to as a district and so we can reaffirm Alecrim as an important and traditional district to Natal and it has been resisting to spatial transformation verified in the last years in Natal city. To give support to our reflection we used methodological tools related to inhabitants lifestyles knowledge and also the study of Alecrim District as a space that promote a certain centrality in Natal as some indicators to keep original characteristics in the district in Natal

Ícones urbanos na cidade de Natal: arquitetura e desenvolvimento urbano na cidade do sol e mar

Natal has come through major changes in the last 150 years, since the actions of city beautification, in the 19th century, until the present day, when such transformations start to have the objective of including the city in the competition for the attraction of the capital flows and consumption, domestically and in a foreign sense. It is thought that the first initiatives aimed at increasing tourism in Natal occurred in the 1960s, however, it became apparent that only from the 1980s was there a significant increase in tourist activities in Natal and the Metropolitan Region, especially on the east coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, leading to an expansion of the labour market, the significant increase of foreign investment, territorial changes of great impact and the production of buildings primarily intended for the hotel industry and second residence for European tourists. Since then, the incentives for tourist activity in the state have been maintained and even increased, based on tourism aimed at natural beauties, local cuisine and events, which transformed the tourist activity in one of the main sources of foreign exchange for the city of Natal. In the early 21st century, the construction of high-rise condominiums, monuments (including the designer ones), such as the Parque da Cidade, designed by Oscar Niemeyer, were already established. Also, shopping centers and, in order to host the World Cup, the new football stadium, the Arena das Dunas, among others, which were aimed at local and foreign consumers, especially European, stood out in the city. It is understood that these new buildings, monuments and also renovations and restorations that were deployed in the city of Natal aimed at constructing a new identity for the city, within the process of capitalist development and urban spectacle. It is considered that the monuments and the iconic buildings are attributes of the cities aimed at selling locations as goods, establishing a new urban environment, a new role as cities, which aimed at seeking greater autonomy from the nation-state. In this research, it was sought to analyze the architectural object, that is, buildings and monuments built or restored in Natal and its relevance to the city marketing promoted by the city itself. It was found that, indeed, such buildings and monuments are inserted in contemporary architectural production as a basis for increasing the competitive nature of Natal. In addition, they reveal a capitalist mode of production, supported by public resources, operating in the production of urban space with a view to repeating the hegemonic model of a competitive city

Investimentos internacionais e a valorização imobiliária dos municípios de Maxaranguape e Rio do Fogo

Since the middle of 1970´s the world has been undergoing significant transformations, comes in a new era of global capital accumulation, and starts the called productive restructuring. This restructuring is materialized spatially through the reconfiguration of territory, redefining its uses and providing a new spatial structure. With regard to native of Rio Grande do Norte territory, there is, from the 1980s, the emergence of new economic activities, among which stand out tourism, which become stimulated from government policies. In this context, has stood the east coast of the state, because its beaches have recognized scenic appeal and environmental quality. Therewith business opportunity, international investors ended up investing in this portion of Rio Grande do Norte´s territory, especially over the last decade. The expansion of this process, to the north coast, resulted in the emergence of intense property dynamics in the municipalities of Maxaranguape and Rio do Fogo. The low value of the property and buildings, compared to the European market and the availability of real property, were the main factors that explain the attraction of such investors, who are now seen as new business opportunities with high rates of profitability, in tropical areas, hitherto remote geographical location of the economic system. Therefore, the objective of the research is to analyze to what extent the International Investment promoted the appreciation of property in the municipalities of Maxaranguape and Rio do Fogo. The time frame covers the period among 2000- 2013. The methodology consisted of the following proceedings: surveys and analysis of data collected in the property registry office of the Maxaranguape and Rio do Fogo municipalities; interviews with public and private officials that were important for the analysis of spatial transformations and the recovery of the property that occurred in the municipalities studied; collection of secondary data from official bodies, such as IBGE, MTUR, SETUR, BNB etc. Analyzing the information and data that have been cataloged, it was concluded that this investments are reinforcing old leisure and tourism practices existing in the past in those territories and, shifted (creating new territorial arrangements) a significant part of the eastern coast zone areas of the state. Another consequence connected to this recent phenomenon refers to property’s increase in value that has occurred in this part of the state, episode which is directly connected to that event. Therefore, it is realize that the expansion and the incorporation of the capital territories reveal, in part, the strategies of the capitalist mode of production, which are evident in the search for better conditions of accumulation, expanding the alternative of use of the properties which occurs in selective way and uneven in the geographic space form. It is observed that the mechanisms that capital makes use to impose their practices can happen through the property’s increase in value market, meaning, thereby, that the reproduction of imbalances happens, often, through the marked property speculation with the fast increase in value of properties.

Parâmetros biológicos de Herpsilochmus pectoralis Sclater 1857 (Aves: Thamnophilidae) em fragmentos de mata atlântica do Nordeste do Brasil

The study of birds represents an important tool for the understanding of the processes involved in behavioral and morphological patterns. The species we have studied belongs to Thamnophilidae family, the third largest family restricted to the Neotropic ecozone. They are popularly known as antbirds and comprise 209 species. A large portion of the species has cryptic behavior, making the acoustic communication an important tool for maintaining contact among birds. Herpsilochmus pectoralis Sclater 1857 has evident sexual dimorphism, measured between 10 and 12 cm height and it is found in forest fragments in the Northeast and it is also categorized as vulnerable to extinction process. This study was conducted in three sandbank fragments on the east coast of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. With the help of tape recordings between 2006 and 2012 it was possible to describe and characterize the sing of H. pectoralis. The sing from male birds has more and longer length than the female sing (16% of dimorphism). No differences were found in the dominant frequency between the sexes. We describe four types of calls from this species repertoire. Through capturing with ornithological nets between 2009 and 2012 it was possible to describe and compare the morphology of H. pectoralis. The species have shown lower corporal mass in the dry season. The young birds showed morphometric similarities in comparison to adults. The species has no accentuated dimorphism in their morphometric characteristics. The young ones with flying capabilities have morphometric characteristics of adults, even though they do not show a characteristic adult plumage. The moult pattern in the species is a characteristic of tropical birds, but it shows short reproductive period, typical of temperate species. Even being in the tropical region, the species suffers with seasonal rainfall, which influences their reproductive phenology and moult (remex and rectrix) cycle. Thus, this dissertation provides information on the biology of H. pectoralis to support the understanding of the relationship of this species to the environment and also to know the variations of morphology and vocal aspects, in order to understand patterns and general characteristics of Thamnophilidae.

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore