5 resultados para Distributed lag non-linear model
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
Resumo:
This work presents a modelling and identification method for a wheeled mobile robot, including the actuator dynamics. Instead of the classic modelling approach, where the robot position coordinates (x,y) are utilized as state variables (resulting in a non linear model), the proposed discrete model is based on the travelled distance increment Delta_l. Thus, the resulting model is linear and time invariant and it can be identified through classical methods such as Recursive Least Mean Squares. This approach has a problem: Delta_l can not be directly measured. In this paper, this problem is solved using an estimate of Delta_l based on a second order polynomial approximation. Experimental data were colected and the proposed method was used to identify the model of a real robot
Resumo:
Slugging is a well-known slugging phenomenon in multiphase flow, which may cause problems such as vibration in pipeline and high liquid level in the separator. It can be classified according to the place of its occurrence. The most severe, known as slugging in the riser, occurs in the vertical pipe which feeds the platform. Also known as severe slugging, it is capable of causing severe pressure fluctuations in the flow of the process, excessive vibration, flooding in separator tanks, limited production, nonscheduled stop of production, among other negative aspects that motivated the production of this work . A feasible solution to deal with this problem would be to design an effective method for the removal or reduction of the system, a controller. According to the literature, a conventional PID controller did not produce good results due to the high degree of nonlinearity of the process, fueling the development of advanced control techniques. Among these, the model predictive controller (MPC), where the control action results from the solution of an optimization problem, it is robust, can incorporate physical and /or security constraints. The objective of this work is to apply a non-conventional non-linear model predictive control technique to severe slugging, where the amount of liquid mass in the riser is controlled by the production valve and, indirectly, the oscillation of flow and pressure is suppressed, while looking for environmental and economic benefits. The proposed strategy is based on the use of the model linear approximations and repeatedly solving of a quadratic optimization problem, providing solutions that improve at each iteration. In the event where the convergence of this algorithm is satisfied, the predicted values of the process variables are the same as to those obtained by the original nonlinear model, ensuring that the constraints are satisfied for them along the prediction horizon. A mathematical model recently published in the literature, capable of representing characteristics of severe slugging in a real oil well, is used both for simulation and for the project of the proposed controller, whose performance is compared to a linear MPC
Resumo:
The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period
Resumo:
Studies reveal that in recent decades a decrease in sleep duration has occurred. Social commitments, such as work and school are often not aligned to the "biological time" of individuals. Added to this, there is a reduced force of zeitgeber caused by less exposure to daylight and larger exposure to evenings. This causes a chronic sleep debt that is offset in a free days. Indeed, a restriction and extent of sleep called "social Jet lag" occurs weekly. Sleep deprivation has been associated to obesity, cancer, and cardiovascular risk. It is suggested that the autonomic nervous system is a pathway that connects sleep problems to cardiovascular diseases. However, beyond the evidence demonstrated by studies using models of acute and controlled sleep deprivation, studies are needed to investigate the effects of chronic sleep deprivation as it occurs in the social jet lag. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of social jet lag in circadian rest-activity markers and heart function in medical students. It is a cross-sectional, observational study conducted in the Laboratory of Neurobiology and Biological Rhythmicity (LNRB) at the Department of Physiology UFRN. Participated in the survey medical students enrolled in the 1st semester of their course at UFRN. Instruments for data collection: Munich Chronotype Questionnaire, Morningness Eveningness Questionnaire of Horne and Östberg, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Actimeter; Heart rate monitor. Analysed were descriptive variables of sleep, nonparametric (IV60, IS60, L5 and M10) and cardiac indexes of time domain, frequency (LF, HF LF / HF) and nonlinear (SD1, SD2, SD1 / SD2). Descriptive, comparative and correlative statistical analysis was performed with SPSS software version 20. 41 students participated in the study, 48.8% (20) females and 51.2% (21) males, 19.63 ± 2.07 years. The social jet lag had an average of 02: 39h ± 00:55h, 82.9% (34) with social jet lag ≥ 1h and there was a negative correlation with the Munich chronotype score indicating greater sleep deprivation in subjects prone to eveningness. Poor sleep quality was detected in 90.2% (37) (X2 = 26.56, p <0.001) and 56.1% (23) excessive daytime sleepiness (X2 = 0.61, p = 0.435). Significant differences were observed in the values of LFnu, HFnu and LF / HF between the groups of social jet lag <2h and ≥ 2h and correlation of the social jet lag with LFnu (rs = 0.354, p = 0.023), HFnu (rs = - 0.354 , p = 0.023) and LF / HF (r = 0.355, p = 0.023). There was also a negative association between IV60 and indexes in the time domain and non-linear. It is suggested that chronic sleep deprivation may be associated with increased sympathetic activation promoting greater cardiovascular risk.
Resumo:
This study offers an analytical approach in order to provide a determination of the temperature field developed during the DC TIG welding of a thin plate of aluminum. The non-linear characteristics of the phenomenon, such as the dependence of the thermophysical and mechanical properties with temperature were considered in this study. In addition to the conductive heat exchange process, were taken into account the exchange by natural convection and radiation. A transient analysis is performed in order to obtain the temperature field as a function of time. It is also discussed a three-dimensional modeling of the heat source. The results obtained from the analytical model were be compared with the experimental ones and those available in the literature. The analytical results show a good correlation with the experimental ones available in the literature, thus proving the feasibility and efficiency of the analytical method for the simulation of the heat cycle for this welding process.