Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Argamassas do grupo escolar Augusto Severo/RN: caracterização e incidência de manifestações patológicas

The search for cultural heritage preservation should be a constant, in order to minimize the lost of historical and cultural identity of a country. As part of this cultural heritage, highlights the importance of historical buildings. For the principles of restoration are met its important to know the state of conservation and the existing materials. Given the above, this work aims to study the pathological manifestations of the mortar coating from the Grupo Escolar Augusto Severo. For this, was conducted historical survey of the building, on-site visits with visual observation, collecting samples of mortar coating and characterization through visual and laboratory analysis, XRF, XRD, TG/DTG, OM and SEM-EDS. From the observations, pathological manifestations were found as: cracks, detachment of the coating, dirt, use of inappropriate material basis of cement, efflorescence, mold and mildew and also incompatible material base of cement. It was found that the pathological manifestations were intensified due to lack of coverage in some spots and especially the abandonment of the building, that many years does not have restoration or any other type of preventive and corrective maintenance. The results of laboratory tests indicated that the mortars studied are based on lime, with calcitic nature, and siliceous aggregate, with the presence of clay in two samples. From the samples collected, two are composed of lime, sand and clay and two by lime and sand. In this regard, it is important to conduct periodic inspections and maintenance, as well as carrying out restoration with use of material compatible with the original

Metodologia para modelagem, validação e programação de controladores lógicos industriais usando statecharts básicos

Due of industrial informatics several attempts have been done to develop notations and semantics, which are used for classifying and describing different kind of system behavior, particularly in the modeling phase. Such attempts provide the infrastructure to resolve some real problems of engineering and construct practical systems that aim at, mainly, to increase the productivity, quality, and security of the process. Despite the many studies that have attempted to develop friendly methods for industrial controller programming, they are still programmed by conventional trial-and-error methods and, in practice, there is little written documentation on these systems. The ideal solution would be to use a computational environment that allows industrial engineers to implement the system using high-level language and that follows international standards. Accordingly, this work proposes a methodology for plant and control modelling of the discrete event systems that include sequential, parallel and timed operations, using a formalism based on Statecharts, denominated Basic Statechart (BSC). The methodology also permits automatic procedures to validate and implement these systems. To validate our methodology, we presented two case studies with typical examples of the manufacturing sector. The first example shows a sequential control for a tagged machine, which is used to illustrated dependences between the devices of the plant. In the second example, we discuss more than one strategy for controlling a manufacturing cell. The model with no control has 72 states (distinct configurations) and, the model with sequential control generated 20 different states, but they only act in 8 distinct configurations. The model with parallel control generated 210 different states, but these 210 configurations act only in 26 distinct configurations, therefore, one strategy control less restrictive than previous. Lastly, we presented one example for highlight the modular characteristic of our methodology, which it is very important to maintenance of applications. In this example, the sensors for identifying pieces in the plant were removed. So, changes in the control model are needed to transmit the information of the input buffer sensor to the others positions of the cell

Desenvolvimento de um protocolo de comunicação para automação de subestações móveis via satélite

One of the most important decisions to turn a substation automatic and no attended it relates to the communication media between this substation and Operation Center. Generally energy companies uses radio or optic fiber, depending of distances and infrastructure of each situation. This rule applies to common substations. Mobile substations are a particular case, therefore they are conceived for use at provisional situations, emergencies, preventive or corrective maintenance. Thus the telecommunication solution used at common substations are not applied so easily to mobile substations, due absence of infrastructure (media) or difficulty to insert the mobile substation data in existing automation network not long. The ideal media must supply covering in a great geographic area to satisfy presented requirements. The implantation costs of this big infrastructure are expensive, however a existing operator may be used. Two services that fulfill that requirements are satellite and cellular telephony. This work presents a solution for automation of mobile substations through satellite. It was successfully implanted at a brazilian electric energy concessionaire named COSERN. The operation became transparent to operators. Other gotten benefits had been operational security, quality in the supply of electric energy and costs reduction. The project presented is a new solution, designed to substations and general applications where few data should be transmitted, but there is difficulties in relation to the media. Despite the satellite having been used, the same resulted can be gotten using celullar telephony, through Short Messages or packet networks as GPRS or EDGE.