5 resultados para Deviance information criterion

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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Stellar differential rotation is an important key to understand hydromagnetic stellar dynamos, instabilities, and transport processes in stellar interiors as well as for a better treatment of tides in close binary and star-planet systems. The space-borne high-precision photometry with MOST, CoRoT, and Kepler has provided large and homogeneous datasets. This allows, for the first time, the study of differential rotation statistically robust samples covering almost all stages of stellar evolution. In this sense, we introduce a method to measure a lower limit to the amplitude of surface differential rotation from high-precision evenly sampled photometric time series such as those obtained by space-borne telescopes. It is designed for application to main-sequence late-type stars whose optical flux modulation is dominated by starspots. An autocorrelation of the time series is used to select stars that allow an accurate determination of spot rotation periods. A simple two-spot model is applied together with a Bayesian Information Criterion to preliminarily select intervals of the time series showing evidence of differential rotation with starspots of almost constant area. Finally, the significance of the differential rotation detection and a measurement of its amplitude and uncertainty are obtained by an a posteriori Bayesian analysis based on a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (hereafter MCMC) approach. We apply our method to the Sun and eight other stars for which previous spot modelling has been performed to compare our results with previous ones. The selected stars are of spectral type F, G and K. Among the main results of this work, We find that autocorrelation is a simple method for selecting stars with a coherent rotational signal that is a prerequisite to a successful measurement of differential rotation through spot modelling. For a proper MCMC analysis, it is necessary to take into account the strong correlations among different parameters that exists in spot modelling. For the planethosting star Kepler-30, we derive a lower limit to the relative amplitude of the differential rotation. We confirm that the Sun as a star in the optical passband is not suitable for a measurement of the differential rotation owing to the rapid evolution of its photospheric active regions. In general, our method performs well in comparison with more sophisticated procedures used until now in the study of stellar differential rotation

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The population aging process increases the number of elderly people worldwide. In Brazil, a country of continental size, this process began in the 40s and happens with specific features in each of the different region s realities. This way, this thesis aimed to evaluate the psychometric properties of a elderly s quality of life (QOL) scale, the WHOQOL-old, in a population of the Northeast of Brazil. We sought to investigate the congruence between the content covered by the scale and the ones deemed as relevant by the participants. It aimed also study the validity evidences of the instrument s internal structure. To achieve the research objectives we adopted the design of multiple methods. The research was organized in two studies. For data collection, both studies used a sociodemographic questionnaire to obtain a profile of the participants and the Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE), used as exclusion criterion. A number of 18 elderly residents of the cities of Natal-RN and Campina Grande-PB, mean age of 73.3 years (SD = 5.9) took part od the study, They were organized into three focal groups (FG) in witch they discussed about the concept of QOL, what enhance and what hinders QOL. For Study II, a quantitative approach, 335 elderly from Campina Grande responded scale WHOQOL-old. They are between 65 and 99 years (M = 74.17, SD = 6.5). The FG data were analyzed by categorical thematic content. For the data analysis of the WHOQOL-old scale were used exploratory factor analysis and calculation of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. The results of both studies were triangulated. According to the discussions in the FG, health and social participation have central roles in quality of life. Social participation is related to all the other QOL s influences raised. The participants indicated the relevance of religiosity and were divided about the importance of sexual activity. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) extracted a model of six factors. Two items (OLD_3 and OLD_9), not loaded on any factor and were excluded. The other items had factor loadings > 0.3. The response categories were reduced from five to three. After the scale changes, the empirical model showed better fit (-2loglikelihood = 8993.90, BIC and AIC = 9183.90 = 9546.24) than the theoretical model (-2loglikelihood = 18390.88, AIC = 18678.88 and BIC = 19228.11). Despite the best information criterion values, the RMESA remained above the ideal (0.06). We conclude that the WHOQOL-old presents psychometric parameters below the ideal when used with the Northeast population, but the improvements made the scale s use acceptable. The WHOQOL-old uses observable variables that matches with the participants' perceptions on quality of life. However, new strategies must be tested for a better sacale refinement

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While the carnivores are considered regulators and structuring of natural communities are also extremely threatened by human activities. Endangered little-spotted-cat (Leopardus tigrinus) is one of the lesser known species from the Neotropical cats. In this work we investigate the occupancy and the activity pattern of L. tigrinus in Caatinga of Rio Grande do Norte testing: 1) how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence their occupation and 2) how biotic and abiotic factors influence their activity pattern. For this we raised occurrence data of species in 10 priority areas for conservation. We built hierarchical models of occupancy based on maximum likelihood to represent biological hypotheses which were ranked using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). According to the results the feline occupancy is more likely away from rural settlements and in areas with a higher proportion of woody vegetation. The opportunistic killing of L. tigrinus and in retaliation for poultry predation close to residential areas can explain this result; as well as more complex vegetation structure can better serve as refuge and ensure more food. Analyzing the records of the species through circular statistics we conclude that the activity pattern is mostly nocturnal, although considerable crepuscular and a small diurnal activity. L. tigrinus activity was directly affected by the availability of small terrestrial mammals, which are essentially nocturnal. In addition, the temperatures recorded in the environment directly and indirectly affect the activity of the little-spotted-cat, as also influence the activity of their potential prey. Generally, the cats were more active when possible prey were active, and this happened at night when lower temperatures are recorded. Moreover, the different lunar phases did not affect the activity pattern. The results improve the understanding of an endangered feline inhabiting the Caatinga biome, and thus can help develop conservation and management strategies, as well as in planning future research in this semi-arid ecosystem.

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A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.

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A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.