A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista

The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

Alterações da default mode network provocadas pela ingestão de Ayahuasca investigadas por Ressonância Magnética Funcional

Ayahuasca is psychotropic beverage that has been used for ages by indigenous populations in South America, notably in the Amazon region, for religious and medicinal purposes. The tea is obtained by the decoction of leaves from the Psychotria viridis with the bark and stalk of a shrub, the Banisteriopsis caapi. The first is rich in N-N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT), which has an important and well-known hallucinogenic effect due to its agonistic action in serotonin receptors, specifically 5-HT2A. On the other hand, β-carbolines present in B. caapi, particularly harmine and harmaline, are potent monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOi). In addition, the tetrahydroharmine (THH), also present in B. caapi, acts as mild selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor and a weak MAOi. This unique composition induces a number of affective, sensitive, perceptual and cognitive changes in individuals under the effect of Ayahuasca. On the other hand, there is growing interest in the Default Mode Network (DMN), which has been consistently observed in functional neuroimaging studies. The key components of this network include structures in the brain midline, as the anterior medial frontal cortex, ventral medial frontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, and some regions within the inferior parietal lobe and middle temporal gyrus. It has been argued that DMN participate in tasks involving self-judgments, autobiographical memory retrieval, mental simulations, thinking in perspective, meditative states, and others. In general, these tasks require an internal focus of attention, hence the conclusion that the DMN is associated with introspective mental activity. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) changes in DMN caused via the ingestion of Ayahuasca by 10 healthy subjects while submitted to two fMRI protocols: a verbal fluency task and a resting state acquisition. In general, it was observed that Ayahuasca causes a reduction in the fMRI signal in central nodes of DMN, such as the anterior cingulate cortex, the medial prefrontal cortex, the posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus and inferior parietal lobe. Furthermore, changes in connectivity patterns of the DMN were observed, especially a decrease in the functional connectivity of the precuneus. Together, these findings indicate an association between the altered state of consciousness experienced by individuals under the effect of Ayahuasca, and changes in the stream of spontaneous thoughts leading to an increased introspective mental activity