Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Lógica por trás dos contratos sociais

Natural selection shapes body and behavior of each species. For primates, the social environment constituted one of the greatest selective pressure for the development of their cognition. When we consider gender differences, we see that sexual selection also operates through different selective pressures for men and women not only in physical terms but in terms of cognitive skills. Among these, the primary cognitive abilities - that emerge naturally - and secondary - that rely on an artificial environment for learning - develop differently for each sex, making them suitable for specific tasks in different capacities. Previous studies utilized the Wason Selection Test a conditional logic tool - to measure, among several other things, the ability to recognize violation of rules in abstract contexts and social contexts. Subjects generally had better performance in the latter, however, in these studies possible differences motivated by learning in formal logic or genre were not considered. Our study investigated these two variables, as well as the time spent to solve each task. Furthermore, we used an index to take into account the rights and wrongs of the participants in tasks. We realized that although learning in formal logic does not bring significant differences in solving tests, the gender differences are strongly observed when we consider the social contexts and abstract. Women perform better in social tasks. This can be explained due to different sexual selective pressures for this gender in terms of one-on-one relationships within the group. Men are better at tasks of abstract context and this is probably due to the same reason. Their capabilities for territory defense, habitat navigation and forming coalitions depends on primary cognitive abilities that support secondary cognitive skills of abstraction. Thus, gender differences are a factor to be taken into account in controlling future experiments with the same tool

Análise da eficiência de contratos de serviços de elevada especificidade terceirizados pela petrobras

The definition of the boundaries of the firms is subject that has occupied the organizational theorists long ago, being the seminal work of Coase (1937) indicated as the trigger for one theoretical evolution, with emphasis on governance structures, which led to a modern theory of incomplete contracts. The Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Agency Theory arise within this evolution, being widely used in studies related to the theme. Empirically, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has established itself as a suitable tool for analysis of efficiency. Although TCE argues that specific assets must be internalized, recent studies outside the mainstream of theory show that, often, firms may decide, for various reasons, hire them on the market. Researches on transaction costs face with the unavailability of information and methodological difficulties in measuring their critical variables. There`s still the need for further methodological deepening. The theoretical framework includes classic works of TCE and Agency Theory, but also more recent works, outside the mainstream of TCE, which warn about the existence of strategies in use of specific assets that aren`t necessarily aligned with the classical ideas of TCE. The Brazilian oil industry is the focus of this thesis, that aimed to evaluate the efficiency of contracts involving high specificity service outsourced by Petrobras. In order to this, we made the categorization of outsourced services in terms of specificity, as well the description of services with higher specificity. Then, we verified the existence of relationship between the specificity of services and a number of variables, being found divergent results than those that are preached by the mainstream of TCE. Then, we designed a DEA model to analyze the efficiency in the use of onshore drilling rigs, identified among the services of highest specificity. The next step was the application of the model to evaluate the performance of drilling rigs contracts. Finally, we verified the existence of relationship between the efficiency of contracts and a number of variables, being found, again, results not consistent with the theory mainstream. Regarding to analyze of efficiency of drilling rigs contracts, the model developed is compatible with what is found in academic productions in efficiency of drilling rigs. The results on efficiency show a wide range of scores, with efficiencies ranging from 31.79% to 100%, being low the sample efficiency average. There is consonance between the model results and the practices adopted by Petrobras. The results strengthen the DEA as an important tool in studies of efficiency with possibility to use for analysis other types of contracts. In terms of theoretical findings, the results reinforce the arguments that there are situations in which the strategies of the organizations, in terms of use of assets and services of high specificity, do not necessarily follow what is recommended by the mainstream of TCE

A Eficácia dos direitos fundamentais nos contratos civis e de consumo: uma teoria contratual baseada na colisão dos direitos ou bens constitucionalmente protegidos

The apparent virtuosity that if could wait of the globalization and the neoliberalism has given signals of deterioration in the contractual relations, especially in contracts of mass consumption, generating innumerable offensive situations to the basic rights and the goods constitutionally protected of the contractors. In the world of today, still that it does not reveal any desire, the individual practically is compelled to contract, for force of necessities and customs completely imposed, mainly in face of the essentiality of the services or agreed to goods. Ahead of as much and unexpected changes in the civil liames and of consumption, dictated for the globalization, it comes to surface the reflection if the private law e, more specifically, the civil law, meet prepared adequately to deal with these new parameters of the economy. The present dissertation has the intention to investigate if the globalization and the consequent neoliberalism, in this beginning of third millennium, will imply to revive of the principles and the basics paradigms of the contracts that consolidated and had kept, for more than two centuries, the liberal State. One notices that the study of this phenomenon it gains importance to the measure where if it aggravates the decline of the social State (Welfare State), with the embrittlement and the loss of the autonomy of the state authority, over all in countries of delayed modernity, as it is the case of Brazil, that presents deep deficiencies to give or to promote, with a minimum of quality and efficiency, essential considered public services to the collective and that if they find consecrated in the Federal Constitution, as basic rights or as goods constitutionally protecting, the example of the health, the education, the housing, the security, the providence, the insurance, the protection the maternity, the infancy and of aged and deficient. To the end, the incidence of constant basic rights of the man in the Constitution is concluded that, in the process of interpretation of the right contractual conflicts that have as object rights or goods constitutionally proteges, in the universe of the globalized perhaps economy and of the neoliberalismo, it consists in one of the few ways - unless the only one - that still they remain to over all deal with more adequately the contractual relations, exactly that if considers the presence of clauses generalities in the scope of the legislation infraconstitutional civil and of consumption, front the private detainers of social-economic power. To be able that it matters necessarily in disequilibrium between the parts, whose realignment depends on the effect and the graduation that if it intends to confer to the basic right in game in the private relation. The Constitution, when allowing the entailing of the basic rights in the privates relations, would be assuming contours of a statute basic of all the collective, giving protection to the man against the power, if public or independently private

A percepção da fiscalização dos contratos de mão de obra terceirizada pelos agentes envolvidos nesse processo no âmbito da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte: uma análise sob o modelo do principal-agente

Outsourcing has emerged as one of the new ways of guiding the work. For its advantages and be consistent with the paradigms of managerial reform, outsourcing also started to be used in the Public Administration. However, taking into account the particularities of the latter, some issues are relevant when outsourcing concluded with the State. Gains notoriety, for example, the step of monitoring these contracts, to the extent that, from this activity, we can avoid the negative effects of outsourcing like the fact that the state will pay for labor and wage liens that are obligation of the company providing the services. This study aims to understand the perception that this process is under the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, from the point of view of different stakeholders, also explaining the motivations that these agents have to perform the supervisory process. As a theoretical basis was used the Agency Theory, which reinforces the supervisory activities as a necessary means to minimize moral hazard and adverse selection, seeking to understand not only the different motivations tax contracts to properly perform their duties, but also analyze other phenomena arising from this contractual relationship. To achieve the proposed objectives, were taken a literature review and a presentation of how to organize the management and oversight of contracts in UFRN. The methodological procedures included questionnaires and interviews with those involved in the process. After analyzing the results obtained in the survey instruments , and also based on the laws, regulations and instructions governing the procurement process within the UFRN, it was concluded that the process of overseeing the outsourcing of labor contracts in UFRN is not fully institutionalized, some points should be strengthened in order to have the consolidation of this process, highlighting the need for training of UFRN servers that act as tax, the knowledge that the contractual penalties are applied effectively, the need that there is a supervisor of tax of contractors and also the realization of the rotation system of outsourced employees

Evolução da paisagem do baixo curso do rio de Piranhas-Assu (1988-2024): uso de autômatos celulares em modelo dinâmico espacial para simulação de cenários futuros

The lower course of Piranhas-Assu river, located in the north coast of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, arouses a keen interest as a study field, once it concentrates, besides petroleum and gas exploration, activities related to shrimp culture, salt and horticulture, factors that also deserve special attention. Thus, the awareness of the study field environmental stage demands studies from researchers and discernment from society, as a way of understanding the inter-relation between environment and men. Therefore, this work attempts at understanding and studying the dynamics of land use in the lower course of Piranhas-Assu river, through a multitemporal analysis of present and past, accomplishing future projections through simulation models. The work is divided in stages that include the research, analysis, interpretation of results, and the generation of simulation models, to analyze the landscape tendencies, making possible to identify indicators which cause such changes in the lower course of the river. From Geographical Database, the necessary exploratory analyses were accomplished to the following items: land use evolution, natural and environmental vulnerability, multiple geodiversity indexes, and preparation of the data to be used in the simulation model. Later, the construction of the landscape simulation model was conducted. Sequentially, simulations of future sceneries were accomplished through the execution of the model in a specific software environment. Last, the analyses of landscape tendencies in the study field were carried out. The lower course of Piranhas-Assu River didn't show any intense dynamics in landscape changing, once in the period taken into account (from 1988 to 2004) class stability proved to be superior to its transformations. Activities related to agriculture and livestock are the ones that influence, mostly, the landscape dynamics. The production of sea shrimp and petroleum also infers in the landscape, although in smaller proportion. INCRA s public policies excessively determined the dynamics of the landscape in the lower course of Piranhas-Assu River, RN. In respect to its natural vulnerability, the lower course of Piranhas-Assu River, RN, features more vulnerable than stable areas. The landscape simulation, in the first taken period (2004-2009), indicated considerable increases and decreases of antropic activities, if compared to its sequent periods (2009-2014, 2014-2019 and 2019-2024). The simulation, in a wider analysis, showed that the determining factors for the space mobility of antropic activities, in the focused area, are related to the pre-existence of communities with agricultural capability and to the existence of access routes and drainage. Considering the area that features fixed and mobile dunes, located in Porto do Mangue district, we recommend its conversion into a conservation area

Desenvolvimento profissional de futuros professores: travessias que se entrecruzam em contextos formativos

This study aimed to understand how the educational context contributes to the professional development of future teachers on introduction to teaching practice. To this end, we seek to characterize what the learning and the difficulties experienced in training contexts by future teachers, as well as the intrinsic elements to the training contexts that enable professional development. The investigated contexts were the Institutional Program Initiation Grant to Teaching (Programa Institucional de Bolsa de Iniciação à Docência – PIBID), specifically the sub-projects of Chemistry and Physics of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte – UFRN) and Masters in Teaching of Physics and Chemistry of the University of Lisbon (MEFQ ). In both contexts, the future teachers are in contact with the school in a systematic way. The methodology used in our study is rooted in qualitative research with interpretative guidance and the design in the study of multiple cases with instrumental purpose. Participated in this study as the main subject, 40 future teachers PIBID of Physics, 24 PIBID future teachers of Chemistry and 5 future Master Teachers in Teaching Chemistry and Physics. As supporting subjects, participated in 3 PIBID Area Coordinators, the teacher of Introduction to Professional Practice of MEFQ, and 8 teachers who teach chemistry and / or physics in public schools. Multiple data collection tools were used: naturalistic observation, descriptive questionnaire, individual interviews, focus groups, reading of written records and official documents. In analyzing the data, we used the method of questioning and constant comparison. The results showed that the main learning of future teachers are related to the strategy employed in class, the change in the understanding of the role of teacher and student in the classroom, the construction of the professional profile and the development of collaborative practices. The main difficulties were related to the development of activities, the management of time and group, the dynamics of the classroom and the material conditions of work. The characteristics inherent in training contexts investigated for professional development are: the practice itself of the research, the collaboration, the focused reflection on practice, focus on student learning and the improving public schools. From the results, it is evidenced that the training contexts centered at school have the capability to resize the practice based on the analysis of actions, in a collaborative work as well as create opportunities for awareness of the concepts, the acting and the way to understand the profession. It is needed for effective mediation trainers, so that future teachers undertake their own practice and, therefore, they can build teaching strategies that promote learning which, in addition to increase the quality of education, favor the professional development throughout life.

Análise da eficiência de contratos de serviços de elevada especificidade terceirizados pela petrobras

The definition of the boundaries of the firms is subject that has occupied the organizational theorists long ago, being the seminal work of Coase (1937) indicated as the trigger for one theoretical evolution, with emphasis on governance structures, which led to a modern theory of incomplete contracts. The Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Agency Theory arise within this evolution, being widely used in studies related to the theme. Empirically, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has established itself as a suitable tool for analysis of efficiency. Although TCE argues that specific assets must be internalized, recent studies outside the mainstream of theory show that, often, firms may decide, for various reasons, hire them on the market. Researches on transaction costs face with the unavailability of information and methodological difficulties in measuring their critical variables. There`s still the need for further methodological deepening. The theoretical framework includes classic works of TCE and Agency Theory, but also more recent works, outside the mainstream of TCE, which warn about the existence of strategies in use of specific assets that aren`t necessarily aligned with the classical ideas of TCE. The Brazilian oil industry is the focus of this thesis, that aimed to evaluate the efficiency of contracts involving high specificity service outsourced by Petrobras. In order to this, we made the categorization of outsourced services in terms of specificity, as well the description of services with higher specificity. Then, we verified the existence of relationship between the specificity of services and a number of variables, being found divergent results than those that are preached by the mainstream of TCE. Then, we designed a DEA model to analyze the efficiency in the use of onshore drilling rigs, identified among the services of highest specificity. The next step was the application of the model to evaluate the performance of drilling rigs contracts. Finally, we verified the existence of relationship between the efficiency of contracts and a number of variables, being found, again, results not consistent with the theory mainstream. Regarding to analyze of efficiency of drilling rigs contracts, the model developed is compatible with what is found in academic productions in efficiency of drilling rigs. The results on efficiency show a wide range of scores, with efficiencies ranging from 31.79% to 100%, being low the sample efficiency average. There is consonance between the model results and the practices adopted by Petrobras. The results strengthen the DEA as an important tool in studies of efficiency with possibility to use for analysis other types of contracts. In terms of theoretical findings, the results reinforce the arguments that there are situations in which the strategies of the organizations, in terms of use of assets and services of high specificity, do not necessarily follow what is recommended by the mainstream of TCE