Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Regulação do livre acesso no transporte de gás natural à luz da ordem econômica da Constituição de 1988

In the middle of modern social changes produced by globalization and capitalism, several markets have changed. States have left the direct coordination of these markets (chiefly public utility sector in the form of monopolies), introducing regulation in order to promote competition. These changes have affected natural gas industry by promoting competition as a key factor to the development and the increase of firms in this market. The regulatory reform of natural gas industry ocurred in EUA and Europe Union and it has produced its first results. In Brazilian context, Constitutional Amendment nbr. 09 and Federal Law nbr. 9.478/97 ( Petroleum Law ) opened the natural gas market to a broad range of private economic agents and they finished the monopoly over the industry before managed by Petrobras. The new regulatory framework of Brazilian natural gas industry has designed competition as a central element to the new form of managment of business and contractual relationships of this industry. Among the regulatory instruments, open access regulation in natural gas pipelines is directed to promote competition. The questions arised about its implementation in Brazilian context are studied in the present work, in which it is discussed the constitutional rules and principles are to be applied to the open access regulation within the theme of statal regulation of economy present in constitutional economic order

Educação tecnológica e pré-sal: necessidades e urgências

The purpose of this dissertation is whether the demand for manpower trained in technical school for the sector of Oil and Gas (O&G) is in balance with the offer of that training in the Brazilian education system. The methodology used to obtain such information was based on School Census 2000 and 2008 where data were worked out in order to clarify the numbers of enrollments in secondary technical level demanded by the sector of O&G. The demand for manpower with that qualification as a data source was the 2010-2014 Business Plan Program for Mobilization of the National Oil and Natural Gas (PROMINP). This Program identified the future demand for manpower for the Sector of the O&G until 2014 where the occupational categories are mapped prerequisite training and experience. In order to better understand the object of this study was dome a review of the literature with regard to technical education in Brazil but also the importance of the education to economic growth and the peculiarities of the oil economy in different countries possessors of those mines, or that is, developed and underdeveloped countries. Analysis showed that enrollment in technical education in Brazil had a significant increase between the dates 2000 and 2008. It also don´t bring balance with the characteristic of the dynamics of the productive sectors of the economy mainly due to heating of the economy before the global growth especially in the Construction Industry as well as in the Oil and Natural Gas Engineering and a Naval account of the discovery of oil in the Pre-Salt. Another important aspect is that one of the major problems of qualification of manpower in Brazil is due to a bad quality of the student´s school and high school which makes difficult a good performance in office work and also this ability to learn new functions. The rapprochement between the supply of the education system and the demand for manpower with training mid-level technical support for the sector O&G showed that most technical courses demanded or had no enrollment in 2008, had few enrollment in 15 states with demand expect to occur and those enrollment were unevenly distributed among states. The analysis therefore signalize the needed of a public policy that enables the adequacy of the education system (Secondary Technical Education) to Sector of O&G in terms of enrollment and its distribution between the oil producing states and in relation to technical expertise offered

Utilização de indicadores financeiros e não-financeiros na gestão de hotéis no Rio Grande do Norte: um estudo sob a ótica do Balanced Scorecard

This study presents the results of a research on the use of financial and non-financial performance indicators used by medium and large hotels. The research was conducted in Rio Grande do Norte, a Brazilian State. The objective is to identify the usage of performance measures by these companies. Hotel industry is one of the most important sectors in the Rio Grande do Norte economy. The research takes the Balanced Scorecard as a conceptual framework, since it represents an original contribution to the literature of managerial accounting, for rethinking old issues, pointing out themes that were forgotten or badly interpreted, to discuss the requirements imposed by the economy environment, dominated by competitive companies, and increasing the understanding of the relationship between strategy and operation. The objective of the research is to investigate if the hotel managers make use of a managerial information system or not, when evaluating the performance of their business unit. The research reveals the usage of performance evaluation using a large variety of measures. Among them is worth mention: the usage of accounting profit altogether with the EVA/MVA, the process cycle time, total quality management, process transformation, strategic mission, vision, strategic measures, measures related to feedback, risk, costs, productivity, incomes, customers retention, customer satisfaction and profitability, measures using time as a component, quality of the process, cost of the processes, employees capabilities, information systems, motivation, empowerment and alignment. The research leads to the conclusion that the usage of the deriving concepts of Balanced Scorecard can improve the performance measurement systems used by hotels

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread