5 resultados para Bayesian statistical decision theory
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
Resumo:
The skin cancer is the most common of all cancers and the increase of its incidence must, in part, caused by the behavior of the people in relation to the exposition to the sun. In Brazil, the non-melanoma skin cancer is the most incident in the majority of the regions. The dermatoscopy and videodermatoscopy are the main types of examinations for the diagnosis of dermatological illnesses of the skin. The field that involves the use of computational tools to help or follow medical diagnosis in dermatological injuries is seen as very recent. Some methods had been proposed for automatic classification of pathology of the skin using images. The present work has the objective to present a new intelligent methodology for analysis and classification of skin cancer images, based on the techniques of digital processing of images for extraction of color characteristics, forms and texture, using Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) and learning techniques called Support Vector Machine (SVM). The Wavelet Packet Transform is applied for extraction of texture characteristics in the images. The WPT consists of a set of base functions that represents the image in different bands of frequency, each one with distinct resolutions corresponding to each scale. Moreover, the characteristics of color of the injury are also computed that are dependants of a visual context, influenced for the existing colors in its surround, and the attributes of form through the Fourier describers. The Support Vector Machine is used for the classification task, which is based on the minimization principles of the structural risk, coming from the statistical learning theory. The SVM has the objective to construct optimum hyperplanes that represent the separation between classes. The generated hyperplane is determined by a subset of the classes, called support vectors. For the used database in this work, the results had revealed a good performance getting a global rightness of 92,73% for melanoma, and 86% for non-melanoma and benign injuries. The extracted describers and the SVM classifier became a method capable to recognize and to classify the analyzed skin injuries
Resumo:
This work discusses the environmental management thematic, on the basis of ISO 14001 standard and learning organization. This study is carried through an exploratory survey in a company of fuel transport, located in Natal/RN. The objective of this research was to investigate the practices of environmental management, carried through in the context of an implemented ISO 14001 environmental management system, in the researched organization, from the perspective of the learning organization. The methodology used in this work is supported in the quantitative method, combining the exploratory and descriptive types, and uses the technique of questionnaires, having as scope of the research, the managers, employee controlling, coordinators, supervisors and - proper and contracted - of the company. To carry through the analysis of the data of this research, it was used software Excel and Statistical version 6.0. The analysis of the data is divided in two parts: descriptive analysis and analysis of groupings (clusters). The results point, on the basis of the studied theory, as well as in the results of the research, that the implemented ISO 14001 environmental system in the searched organization presents elements that promote learning organization. From the results, it can be concluded that the company uses external information in the decision taking on environmental problems; that the employees are mobilized to generate ideas and to collect n environmental information and that the company has carried through partnerships in the activities of the environmental area with other companies. All these item cited can contribute for the generation of knowledge of the organization. It can also be concluded that the company has evaluated environmental errors occurrences in the past, as well as carried through environmental benchmarking. These practical can be considered as good ways of the company to acquire knowledge. The results also show that the employees have not found difficulties in the accomplishment of the tasks when the manager of its sector is not present. This result can demonstrate that the company has a good diffusion of knowledge
Resumo:
The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work
Resumo:
A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.
Resumo:
A significant observational effort has been directed to investigate the nature of the so-called dark energy. In this dissertation we derive constraints on dark energy models using three different observable: measurements of the Hubble rate H(z) (compiled by Meng et al. in 2015.); distance modulus of 580 Supernovae Type Ia (Union catalog Compilation 2.1, 2011); and the observations of baryon acoustic oscilations (BAO) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by using the so-called CMB/BAO of six peaks of BAO (a peak determined through the Survey 6dFGS data, two through the SDSS and three through WiggleZ). The statistical analysis used was the method of the χ2 minimum (marginalized or minimized over h whenever possible) to link the cosmological parameter: m, ω and δω0. These tests were applied in two parameterization of the parameter ω of the equation of state of dark energy, p = ωρ (here, p is the pressure and ρ is the component of energy density). In one, ω is considered constant and less than -1/3, known as XCDM model; in the other the parameter of state equantion varies with the redshift, where we the call model GS. This last model is based on arguments that arise from the theory of cosmological inflation. For comparison it was also made the analysis of model CDM. Comparison of cosmological models with different observations lead to different optimal settings. Thus, to classify the observational viability of different theoretical models we use two criteria information, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Akaike information criteria (AIC). The Fisher matrix tool was incorporated into our testing to provide us with the uncertainty of the parameters of each theoretical model. We found that the complementarity of tests is necessary inorder we do not have degenerate parametric spaces. Making the minimization process we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are m = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059. Performing a marginalization we found (68%), for the Model XCDM the best fit parameters are m = 0.28 ± 0, 012 and ωX = −1.01 ± 0, 052. While for Model GS the best settings are M = 0.28 ± 0, 011 and δω0 = 0.00 ± 0, 059.