2 resultados para Bayesian probability
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
Resumo:
Bayesian networks are powerful tools as they represent probability distributions as graphs. They work with uncertainties of real systems. Since last decade there is a special interest in learning network structures from data. However learning the best network structure is a NP-Hard problem, so many heuristics algorithms to generate network structures from data were created. Many of these algorithms use score metrics to generate the network model. This thesis compare three of most used score metrics. The K-2 algorithm and two pattern benchmarks, ASIA and ALARM, were used to carry out the comparison. Results show that score metrics with hyperparameters that strength the tendency to select simpler network structures are better than score metrics with weaker tendency to select simpler network structures for both metrics (Heckerman-Geiger and modified MDL). Heckerman-Geiger Bayesian score metric works better than MDL with large datasets and MDL works better than Heckerman-Geiger with small datasets. The modified MDL gives similar results to Heckerman-Geiger for large datasets and close results to MDL for small datasets with stronger tendency to select simpler network structures
Resumo:
We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.