Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Dinâmica da paisagem no litoral oriental do Rio Grande do Norte: geocartografia e padrões espaciais dos campos de dunas móveis

This study shows the results of a research developed in the coastal regions of the Maxaranguape and Touros municipalities, more specific in the mobile dune fields of the Rio Grande do Norte's eastern coast. Although the coastal zones, represent a small percentage of the earth's surface it concentrates a great part of the world's population. The Rio Grande do Norte's state coastal landscape mosaic composed by the dune fields suggest a dynamic scene of changes in the spatial and temporal arranges, with significant changes in the geometry of the sedimentary cover. Following this perspective this research has the objective to map the emerged coastal zone of the Rio Grande do Norte's eastern coast under the perspective of the time-space evolution of the mobile dune fields using geoprocessing techniques, which includes remote sensing, digital images processing and geographic information system (GIS). The results imply the issue of thematic maps: Geologic map; multitemporal evolution map of the mobile dune fields; quantification of the mobile dune fields differences map; temporal evolution of the mobile dune fields surrounds map. The El Niño episodes have directly affected the atmospheric circulation, what have enhanced the sedimentary input in the sand dune, what can justify the relative area growth between the years of 1993 and 2001. The dynamic of the landscape transition were higher than the stability of the spatial pattern of the dune and it's surrounds, as a result the Rio Grande do Norte eastern coast dune fields, specially the mobile dunes from Touros, Zumbi and Maracajau have shown a decrease on the sedimentary cover without vegetation area from 1970 to 2007. Therefore, the data acquired and the techniques used, can be, eventually applied to the mobile dune fields monitoring in order to preserve the dune ecosystems in the Rio Grande do Norte coast