Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Método de avaliação do gerenciamento de resíduos em canteiro de obras da construção civil : proposta baseada em empresas construtoras da cidade de Natal-RN

According to great concern between the developed industrial activities and resultant impacts over the environment, an association of several factors have occurred, procedures to the efficient management of the rotation between economical development and the environment have been improved. A research in field have been realized inside building sites of companies in order to provide knowledge about the implemented and accomplish actions according to the resolution from CONAMA nº307. Trough the interview among the representations of the companies and photographic survey in loco, such as, what makes the companies implement this management, reutilization and recycling, transport and disposition. The present study had as objective: analyze the insertion of the used tools to residuals management, proposing improvements, in a way that it can be easily identified during the procedures execution in the building sites of the building companies of the city of Natal/RN. To reach the goal, in the first place a revision of the pertinent literature was performed; there for, it can be seen the relation between residues management and environment sustainability, once it happens in a continued way it may prevent the waste and reduces the risk that the activities way bring to the employees, community and environment; once found the great difficult faced with regard to labors, material, equipment, project, planning, costumer s interference, furnisher. And still, it could be verified wich materials generate greater indexes of residues in the works and the main occurrences of waste and loss. However a greater transparency is needed coming from the high administration in the commitment with the continued actions, to make it so, there must be a cultural change inside the company. There for there will be a greater productivity and quality of the under taking such as costumer s satisfaction

Análise de resíduos em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório

We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

Participação de moradores no programa de coleta seletiva em três bairros de Natal/RN: explorando determinantes psico-socio-ambientais

The general purpose of the study was the analysis of residents' participation in the program of door-by-door collection of recyclable residuals in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. Even though the conception of such program by municipal managers was basically aimed at providing job opportunities and income for the collectors, the main objective of the investigation was to verify whether residents' participation could be attributed to their environmental commitment. Data collection involved three municipal districts and was performed in three stages, with complementary methodological strategies (observation, questionnaire, and interview), and characterized by selfevaluation, by residents, and hetero-evaluation, by collectors. Social, demographic, situational/contextual, and dispositional data were identified to help in the analysis of residents' adherence to the program. Separating and delivering recyclable residuals was the most frequent type of residents' participation, which demonstrates their low level of appropriation of decisions related to the program, taking part on it as passive agents. Two forms of motivation towards participating in the program were found: environmental and social. Despite the first being more frequent, it was associated to lack of environmental awareness related to the process, which may very well imply a mere reproduction of pro-environmental discourse. Motivation towards social issues was strongly connected to philanthropic forms of help. Knowledge was revealed as na important predictor for participation, as well as social networks, formed by neighbors, relatives and friends. Despite the social emphasis in the design of the program, it is possible to conclude that some residents also perceive its environmental benefits, possibly as consequence of a knowledge originated outside the program. Initiatives of environmental education should be promoted in order to minimize the allegation of lack of knowledge as justification for non-participation. Similarly, actions to put together municipal management and population would be welcome, to promote joint decisions towards sustainable styles of life

Produção do espaço e transformações urbanas no litoral sul de João Pessoa - PB

This present work has as its objective the analysis of transformations relating to the production processes in the Southern littoral urban space of the city of João Pessoa PB. The research estimated that the urban space is the product, means and condition of the society which produces it. The object-area of this inquiry is constituted of five districts: Altiplano Cabo Branco, Portal do Sol, Ponta do Seixas, Penha and Costa do Sol. The urban expansion which occurs in this area is characterized by the appearance of sufficient contradictory space phenomenona. On the other hand, the launching of real estate products such as the horizontal closed condominiums, directed towards the upper class, and the occurrence of areas of irregular occupation, inhabited by lower socioeconomic class and with a great lack of infrastructure and basic urban services, revealing the social contradictions. Due to this, processes such as auto-segregation and segregation imposed beyond the precarious and delinquent inclusion, has become the determining characteristic of this part of the city in analysis. The study also takes into account the appreciation of the new urban environmental zoning of Altiplano do Cabo Branco and from this moment on, start the discussion about the tendencies of urban expansion in this area, due to the interests and strategies of the real estate sector and the prominent role of the government in the current valorization process of urban soil of the area. The presence of residuals of agricultural businesses indicates a typical picture of the peri-urban areas configuring what we observe today at the Southern littoral of João Pessoa