Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Alterações dos parâmetros climáticos no município de Apodi-RN, antes e após a construção da barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, e formação do lago

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal analisar as mudanças ocorridas no clima local onde o município de Apodi/RN está inserido, em virtude da construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi. Foram utilizadas para o tratamento dos dados climáticos precipitação pluviométrica, umidade relativa do ar e temperatura técnicas estatísticas como Desvio Padrão, Teste T, Coeficiente de Variação e Média aritmética, além do modelo matemático. Para o balanço hídrico foi aplicado o método de Thornthwait (1948), considerando dois períodos em análise: o anterior e posterior a construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, respectivamente 1995 e 2005. os resultados obtidos permitiram inferir que a hipótese inicial levantada se confirma, ou seja, a construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, está influenciando diretamente numa alteração no que concerne à condição atmosférica local, especialmente no parâmetro umidade relativa do ar. Quanto ao balanço hídrico, observou-se a predominância do déficit hídrico especialmente entre os meses de junho a janeiro, período de estiagem; um excedente ocorrente entre os meses de maio e junho, conseqüente do período chuvoso; e uma reposição hídrica antecedendo e sucedendo este período, chuvoso, ou seja, compreendendo os meses de fevereiro a junho. Todas as considerações e análises poderão contribuir para o planejamento de abastecimento d´água, a irrigação, auxílio na previsão de enchentes e estiagens, bem como o manejo do uso da água subterrânea

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Acidentes por quedas em um grupo específico de idosos

Este estudo objetivou conhecer a incidência do evento queda e identificar a presença de seus principais fatores de risco. Estudo exploratório, realizado de março a novembro/2009, com aplicação de um formulário sobre quedas em um grupo de idosos. Os dados foram analisados por cálculo de frequências, média e desvio-padrão. Participaram 62 idosos, 41,9% relataram queda nos últimos seis meses, a maioria mulheres. Identificou-se ocorrência de agravos concomitantes: visão regular, audição boa, polifarmácia, IMC normal, forte força de preensão palmar e condições dos pés adequadas. Na maioria dos que caiu, o desequilíbrio foi apontado como principal motivo. A queda ocorreu mais no período da manhã, em local de piso áspero e seco, sem degraus, rampas ou tapetes, iluminação adequada e o tipo de calçado mais utilizado foi chinelo de borracha. Percebe-se a alta ocorrência das quedas na população idosa, fato que fundamenta a necessidade de avaliação das condições de risco envolvidas

Utilização de um aplicativo de simulação computacional na avaliação de desempenho térmico de protótipo de habitação de interesse social (his)

This Masters Degree dissertation seeks to make a comparative study of internal air temperature data, simulated through the thermal computer application DesignBuilder 1.2, and data registered in loco through HOBO® Temp Data Logger, in a Social Housing Prototype (HIS), located at the Central Campus of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte UFRN. The prototype was designed and built seeking strategies of thermal comfort recommended for the local climate where the study was carried out, and built with panels of cellular concrete by Construtora DoisA, a collaborator of research project REPESC Rede de Pesquisa em Eficiência Energética de Sistemas Construtivos (Research Network on Energy Efficiency of Construction Systems), an integral part of Habitare program. The methodology employed carefully examined the problem, reviewed the bibliography, analyzing the major aspects related to computer simulations for thermal performance of buildings, such as climate characterization of the region under study and users thermal comfort demands. The DesignBuilder 1.2 computer application was used as a simulation tool, and theoretical alterations were carried out in the prototype, then they were compared with the parameters of thermal comfort adopted, based on the area s current technical literature. Analyses of the comparative studies were performed through graphical outputs for a better understanding of air temperature amplitudes and thermal comfort conditions. The data used for the characterization of external air temperature were obtained from the Test Reference Year (TRY), defined for the study area (Natal-RN). Thus the author also performed comparative studies for TRY data registered in the years 2006, 2007 and 2008, at weather station Davis Precision Station, located at the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE-CRN (National Institute of Space Research), in a neighboring area of UFRN s Central Campus. The conclusions observed from the comparative studies performed among computer simulations, and the local records obtained from the studied prototype, point out that the simulations performed in naturally ventilated buildings is quite a complex task, due to the applications limitations, mainly owed to the complexity of air flow phenomena, the influence of comfort conditions in the surrounding areas and climate records. Lastly, regarding the use of the application DesignBuilder 1.2 in the present study, one may conclude that it is a good tool for computer simulations. However, it needs some adjustments to improve reliability in its use. There is a need for continued research, considering the dedication of users to the prototype, as well as the thermal charges of the equipment, in order to check sensitivity

Qualidade do ar interior e conforto térmico : um estudo em espaços de estacionamento em Natal/RN

The recent tendency to utilize parking lots for other purposes has demonstrated that more time has been spent by visitors, mainly in great cities. Therefore, this paper investigates the thermal comfort and the air quality indoors in areas specifically used as parking lots by analyzing the direct relation between such environments and vehicular pollution. The thermal comfort and the quality of air indoors in parking lots with different architectonic typology (ground-floor and underground) are also studied, aiming to contribute to the proposition of suitable new areas designated to human usage. Field research was done, in two distinct periods within different weather conditions (January and July) in, two naturally cooled, parking lots located in Natal - RN. The internal environment agents were measured by using tools for air temperature, humidity, speed and direction; interviews with employees and visitors and chemical analysis through appropriate tools to analyze specific material, carbon monoxide and ozone. The results showed that chemical agents densely concentrate mostly in the closed parking space, aggravated by weather conditions, which dissatisfied the visitors. Still, it was shown that architectonic typology, alongside topographical aspects compromise internal environmental conditions, which increases the retention of pollution, leading to dissatisfactory thermal comfort levels and becoming less suitable for usage by visitors considering air and thermal comfort aspects. Consequently, they are not suitable for human stay due to the poor quality of the indoor air

Clima urbano e vegetação: estudo analítico e prospectivo do Parque das Dunas em Natal

The present study deals with the relationship between urban vegetation and climate. The process whereby the Parque das Dunas a 1,172 ha green area in the city of Natal, State of Rio Grande do Norte exerts influence on the climate of the city is analyzed. The hypothesis on which the present work rests is that the green area referred to acts upon the climate of the city. The study is based on the analysis of climatic factors and elements of this green area and of the city of Natal. In order to give rise to final recommendations, a methodology grounded on a quantitative and qualitative standpoint has been used. The data were collected both within and without the limits of the Parque das Dunas area. Secondary and primary data resulting from the measurements taken by the researcher and her work group have been used. The aim was to contribute to the understanding of the influence of vegetation on the climate of a city having a warm and humid climate. A historical and environmental characterization of the Parque das Dunas was then sought. The local climatic factors and the elements of the climate have been studied within the scope of the city of Natal. A comparative study between the climatic elements within and without the limits of the Parque das Dunas area from the survey of technical data and the systematization of the information collected has been made, aiming at proposing a set of bioclimatic recommendations for the urban design in Natal. The results of such work allowed for the validation of the important role that the Parque das Dunas plays in the climate of Natal. This has led to the acknowledgement of the relevance of the green areas on the climate of cities. They bring about important benefits to the process of rendering agreeable the climate in the urban environment by providing pleasant microclimates that give a valuable contribution to the environmental comfort of urban nuclei having the same size of Natal

Variação temporal da riqueza de táxons, abundância e biomassa de artrópodes em ambiente de restinga do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Arthropods are abundant organisms possess great wealth and diversity representing about 82% of all known animal species. Contribute as a source of biomass and their abundance is an indicator of ecological change. The aim of this study was to evaluate the biomass and abundance found in the salt marsh environment throughout the year and relate them to the climatic factors (temperature, precipitation and relative humidity) that can influence the abundance and biomass of arthropods. The study was conducted at the Centro de Lançamento de Foguetes Barreira do Inferno, city of Parnamirim, Rio Grande do Norte, in the period February 2011 to January 2012, using pitfall traps, stationary window and beating tray. Among the 26 orders found, the most abundant were: Hymenoptera, Orthoptera, Araneae. Taxa Hymenoptera, Blattodea and Orthoptera showed higher biomass volume. Climatic factors did not influence the fall of Arthropods in the traps, however, the lowest abundance during the rainy season the action of raindrops, reduced the activity of these arthropods on vegetation, reducing its capture in traps (pitfall traps and stationary window ) and method of collection(entomological umbrella)

Aspectos ambientais e sociais envolvidos na transmissão da L. chagasi no município de Parnamirim/RN

Visceral leishmaniasis hás adapted in the past 20 years to periurban and urban areas, and in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, it became endemic. Thid study aimed to evaluate the environmental and social aspectsof Leishmania chagasi infection and its epidemiologic transmission chain in an urban, periurban and rural area of Parnamirim-RN. A study with three sections was conducted: Section 1: Sectional study of the human and canine infection by L. chagasi and its environmental and social determinants. Section 2: Observational longitudinal cohort to evaluate the dynamics of the canine infection. Section 3: Longitudinal study to evaluate the behavior of Lu. Longipalpis vector and the seasonal factors related to its dynamics. To include in the study the hauses were randomly selected and georreferenciated. Montenegro skin test was done in the human population and blood samples were collected for anti-Leishmania antibody detection. The canine population was examinated for L. chagasi infection by RIFI, ELISA and ELISA for rK39. An entomologic surveillance was monthly done with CDC light trapsin 10 houses of each locality. Quantitative and qualitative analyses was done using STATISC 6.0. Probality and prediction maps were done using ArcGis 9.0 model. In the human population L. chagasi infection was associated with the area of the hause, age, sex, population densyti, vegetation, kind of the floor of thr hause, water and resides destiny. In the canine population L. chagasi infection was associated with the breed, size, time of living in the hause, presence of dogs in the neighborhood, presence of horses and donkeys in the neighborhood, vegetation, kind of the floor and walls of the hause. The human infection was associated with canine infction only when analyzed taking into account the locality. In the prospective study, serum conversion and antibody lost observed in 30,8% and 22% of the animals examined, respectively. The human infection rate by L. chagasi was 24,6%, by the presence of anti-Leishmania antibody and 38,6% by the Montenegro skin test. The canine infection rate 32,5% by the presence of anti-Leishmania antibody. The vector Lu longipalpis showed an atypical behavior. These results indicate that environmental and social factors are important variables associated with L. chagasi infection in humans and canines, with punctual association of thr last two. Control measures of the infection on the studied points are necessary, in the aim to reduce the endemic focus of the disease in the study area. This research was carried out in a multidisciplinary involving the categories of: doctor, biologist, veterinarian, statistical, pharmaceutical and biochemical

Escrever o movimento: o cinema itinerante como reinvenção de uma estética do viver

La tesis parte del presupuesto que el cine ofrece la imensa capacidad de entretejer de forma compleja realidad e imaginación. Con eso sugerimos que tal cual una "escuela de vida", según la definición de Edgar Morin (2003), el cine, por medio de sus producciones y exibiciones, pude ser capaz de operar un movimiento de reinvención de una estética del vivir en el espacio de lo improbable. De ahi surge la pregunta: ¿Cómo un fenómeno artístico, estético e imagético puede realizar tal movimiento? Tomando como referencia el guión de vida del personaje de la vida real José Isaias de Lucena Filho, más conocido por Zezeco, encontramos pistas de esa reinvención. Residente de una pequeña ciudad del interior de la província de Rio Grande do Norte, llamada Ouro Branco, en la década del 1960, se desplazó hacia el centro-sur de Brasil y retornó a su lugar de partida con la idea de trabajar proyectando peliculas. De manera singular y plural, este sujeto asumió el riesgo y la incertidumbre de enfrentar determinismos sociales, climáticos y culturales para proponer nuevas simbolizaciones por medio del cine itinerante. La presencia del séptimo arte en pequeñas ciudades de hábitos rurales marcadas por la miséria, el hambre, la negligéncia, el coronelismo político y los problemas climáticos, alteró escenários, actualizó mitos y proporcionó nuevas interacciones entre los sujetos. Zezeco entró en las cifras del éxodo rural y emigró hacia Rio de Janeiro, pero su éxodo fue cinematográfico, porque le sirvió como base para la inserción de efectos especiales fantásticos y poéticos en guiones de vidas inmersas en lo trivial y lo contingente. Tal cual un cinematógrafo vivo, capturó el escenário cultural efervescente de Rio de Janeiro y lo proyectó en la pequeña ciudad de Ouro Branco y en otras ciudades del interior de las províncias de Rio Grande do Norte y Paraiba. Con ello le atribuyó un nuevo uso a la vida de su lugar de partida y de retorno. Actuó en la ambiguedad, la ambivalencia y la complejidad entre el sapiens e el demens; real e imaginario; prosa y poesia de la vida; razón y pasión; racional y simbólico; lógico y mítico. El alcance de la investigación contempla entrevistas, memória, registros manuscritos y fotografías de colección particular de habitantes de la ciudad de Ouro Branco-RN. Como referenciales teóricos principales, tenemos las obras de Edgar Morin sobre el cine y de otros autores como Giorgio Agamben y Maria da Conceição de Almeida que expanden la comprensión sobre el entreejido de realidad e imaginación, vida e ideas

Biologia populacional comparada de duas espécies de heliconius (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) em um ambiente sazonal de floresta atlântica do nordeste brasileiro

Tropical environments often face strong seasonal variations in climate, such as alternate periods of dry and rain, that may often be important influence in the annual X the organisms lives. Here we assess how population dynamics of two butterfly species (Heliconius erato and Heliconius mepomene) respond to environmental and seasonal variations. A mark-release-recapture study carried out in an Atlantic forest reserve, 15 Km from Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, for 3 years, during the dry and rainy season, with three visits weekly done. Information such as species, wing lenght, site of capture, pollen load and phenotype (number of spots) (in H. erato only) were noted for each capture. Seasonal variation exists in capture rates of the two species, with great capture rates during the rainy season. Despite finding differences in the mean density of individuals of the two species among the different collection areas, this difference was only significant between floodplain and central areas, and no influence of seasonality was observed in the mean density between the areas. Seasonality in wing size was only observed for H. erato, with larger wings during the rainy season. Females carried larger pollen loads than males both species, but species were similar. Only males differed seasonally, with larger pollen loads during the rainy season. The distribution of the number of wing spots did not vary between the dry and rainy seasons, and the number of spots in males and females was similar. Therefore, we conclude that there was a strong influence of seasonal variation in the population dynamic of the two Heliconius species, as well as in several aspects of their biology

Estudo da viabilidade da destilação solar para polimento de águas produzidas de petróleo

This work study of solar distillation feasibility in effluent of petroleum industry: produced water, making possible your reuse for irrigation of oleaginous cultures or fodder crops or in steam generation, as well the transport phenomena involved. The methodology for development of this project was to characterize the effluent to be treated and to accomplish physical and chemical analysis in the distilled, to build distillation equipment, concomitant operation of both equipments and implementation of data processing and economical evaluation. The methodology used for all parameters is outlined in APHA (1998) and sampling of the type compound. The feeding of distillation equipment was performed with treated effluent from UTPF of Guamaré. The temperature was monitored throughout the distillers and during the time of operation. The distillers feed occur, as a rule, for sifon. The distillers were operated by a period of 17 months between July 2007 and February 2009, in which 40 experiments were performed. The radiation and temperature datas were acquired in the INPE s site and the temperature inside of the distillers was registered by DATALOGGER Novus. The rates of condensation (mL / min) were determined by measuring of the flow in a graduate test tube of 10 mL and a chronometer. We used two simple solar effect distillers of passive type with different angles in coverage: 20 ° and 45 °. The results obtained in this study and the relevant discussions are divided into six topics: sample characterization and quality of distilled; construction of distillers; operation (data, temperature profile), climatic aspects, treatment of data and economical analysis. Results obtained can be inferred that: the energy loss by the adoption of vessel glass was not significant, however, complicates the logistics of maintenance the equipment on a large scale. In the other hand, the surface of the tub with a glass shield on the equipment deterioration, both devices showed similar performance, so there is not justified for use of equipment 450. With regard to the climatological study it was verified that the Natal city presents monthly medium radiation varying in a range between 350 and 600 W/m2, and medium of wind speed of 5 m / s. The medium humidity is around 70% and rainfall is very small. The regime of the system is transient and although it has been treated as a stationary system shows that the model accurately represents the distillers system's 20 degrees. The quality of the distilled with regard to the parameters evaluated in this study is consistent with the Class 3 waters of CONAMA (Resolution 357). Therefore we can conclude that solar distillation has viability for treat oilfield produced water when considered the technical and environmental aspects, although it is not economically viable

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

A Produção do Flagelo : a re-produção do espaço social da seca na cidade de Mossoró (1877-1903-1915)

The great droughts re- produced spaces in the city of Mossoró / RN in the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth century. Its dimension exceeds the climatic effects becoming social locus when advances over the political and economic sectors, social and cultural of the North / Northeast Brazilian societies during that period. This way, analyzing the re-production of social space in episodes of Mossoró‟s droughts is our toil. So try to reveal each segment, route and aspect of production of space in its size and interface between the perceived, conceived and lived, and subjects related to it - refugees, population and authorities - during the droughts of 1877, 1903 and 1915 within Mossoró city. Therefore, issues such as the constitution and representation of the city and social space in the terrifying experience of the drought of 1877, the production of fixed objects and flows of the urban web through of migrant labor, attempts to control, discipline and spatial planning and ways to resistance to these charges in daily sphere are key issues addressed in this work. For this we use diverse sources as minutes of the city council, reports from provincial presidents, media, memory books and others that sustain us in building our narrative and problematic. This way, the spatial production of Mossoró‟s droughts reveals itself in the field of relations and political-economic transformations and sociocultural, inextricably, that shapes and mobilizes your own social space

Sistemática integrativa de Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 e Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991 (Teleostei: Cichlidae) das bacias hidrográficas do Nordeste do Brasil

Understanding the historical and ecological relationships which are influent in current biological diversity is one of the most challenging tasks of evolutionary biology. Recent systematics emphasizes the need of integrative approaches to delimit different lineages and species. The northeastern Brazil, mostly placed in Caatinga biome, is characterized by a semi-arid weather, low precipitation and seasonal behavior of rivers. This region is regarded lacking as ichthyological knowledge and one of the most threatened by anthropic activities. Further, will be affected by a massive water diverpsion work that will transfer waters from São Francisco basin, to other major four basins: Jaguaribe, Apodi-Mossoró, Piranhas-Açu and Paraiba do Norte. Loss of diversity and richness, hibridizitation, community interactions changes, population homogenization, changes in water quality and flow regime, are examples of environmental impacts already related with similar works. The present study aims to investigate morphological and molecular variation of Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 and Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991, two cichlid species present in northeastern Brazil basins. Further, the study aims to evaluate the influence of geomorphological and climatic processes in this variation, and point some possible impacts of the artificial connectivity which can be brought by São Francisco interbasin water transfer to their population dynamics. Geometric morphometrics and phylogeographical analysis were used to investigate the populations from three different hydrological regions. Our results showed a significant morphological variation of populations from basins that are involved in the São Franscisco s diversion project, not related to an ancient separation between populations, emphasizing morphological variation which could represent a set of plastic responses to the variable hydrological regime in Northeastern Brazil. The role of plastical responses in naturally variable habitats as well as the potential disturbs that could be brought by the interbasin water transfer works are discussed here. Further, our molecular data allowed us to make inferences about species distribution and their taxonomy, and identification of a potential new species of Crenicichla for São Francisco river basin. Our data also allowed to identify some shared haplotypes for both species, which could be related to lineage sorting scenarios or recent gene flow between populations. However a strong structure in most of the pairwise comparisons between populations for both species was revealed. Climatic events such as Atlantic forest regression during the Pleistocene, sea level fluctuations and dispersion by paleorivers in the mouth of Apodi-Mossoró river, and neotectonic events regulating the connection between drainages are likely to have had a contribution for the actual lineages distribution in northeastern Brazil. Further, analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA and SAMOVA) showed that the actual basin s isolation is an important factor to molecular variation, in spite of the signal of recent contact between some basins. Different genetic diversity patterns between species could be related to multiple historic events of colonization, basins landscapes or biological differences. The present study represents the first effort of integrative systematics involving fish species of northeastern Brazil, and showed important morphological and molecular patterns which could be irrecoverably affected by the artificial connection that might be caused by the São Francisco interbasin water transfer