Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Aplicação do método de análise hierárquica na tomada de decisão para adoção de computação em nuvem: um estudo de caso na federação das indústrias do RN

The progresses of the Internet and telecommunications have been changing the concepts of Information Technology IT, especially with regard to outsourcing services, where organizations seek cost-cutting and a better focus on the business. Along with the development of that outsourcing, a new model named Cloud Computing (CC) evolved. It proposes to migrate to the Internet both data processing and information storing. Among the key points of Cloud Computing are included cost-cutting, benefits, risks and the IT paradigms changes. Nonetheless, the adoption of that model brings forth some difficulties to decision-making, by IT managers, mainly with regard to which solutions may go to the cloud, and which service providers are more appropriate to the Organization s reality. The research has as its overall aim to apply the AHP Method (Analytic Hierarchic Process) to decision-making in Cloud Computing. There to, the utilized methodology was the exploratory kind and a study of case applied to a nationwide organization (Federation of Industries of RN). The data collection was performed through two structured questionnaires answered electronically by IT technicians, and the company s Board of Directors. The analysis of the data was carried out in a qualitative and comparative way, and we utilized the software to AHP method called Web-Hipre. The results we obtained found the importance of applying the AHP method in decision-making towards the adoption of Cloud Computing, mainly because on the occasion the research was carried out the studied company already showed interest and necessity in adopting CC, considering the internal problems with infrastructure and availability of information that the company faces nowadays. The organization sought to adopt CC, however, it had doubt regarding the cloud model and which service provider would better meet their real necessities. The application of the AHP, then, worked as a guiding tool to the choice of the best alternative, which points out the Hybrid Cloud as the ideal choice to start off in Cloud Computing. Considering the following aspects: the layer of Infrastructure as a Service IaaS (Processing and Storage) must stay partly on the Public Cloud and partly in the Private Cloud; the layer of Platform as a Service PaaS (Software Developing and Testing) had preference for the Private Cloud, and the layer of Software as a Service - SaaS (Emails/Applications) divided into emails to the Public Cloud and applications to the Private Cloud. The research also identified the important factors to hiring a Cloud Computing provider

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River

Fatores de decisão da adoção do gás natural na geração de energia elétrica em pequena escala em postos de combustíveis: um estudo de anális de decusão usando o processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

A modeling of criterias and alternatives is through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP to proprietors of gas stations. The considered alternatives had been the maintenance of the current state with electric energy of the deliverer and the generation in small scale based on the natural gas. The used criteria had been Cost of the Investment, Final Cost of the Energy, Operational cost, Ambient Benefits, Risk and Variation of Costs. The study it was carried through in the city of Natal, RN in ranks that make use of the natural as for resale, where the generation alternative on the basis of the available gas is present. The main results evidence in a dimension the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method. The main results of the analysis help to show that in this in case that the profile of models of criteria and judgments of the actors is similar, with the final evidence of that it has a dominance of the maintenance of the energy of the deliverer. The main criterion to influence this decision was the risk

Análise de critérios de decisão em estratégia de arranjos produtivos locais: um estudo aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) no setor de cerâmica

This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

Uma aplicação de análise de decisão com o método AHP Processo de hierarquia analítica: um estudo sobre adoção de Sistema eletrônico de cobrança no Transporte público urbano

This thesis carries through an application of Analysis of Multicriterion Decision with use of the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the problematic one of taking of decision of the adoption of electronic collecting in the system of urban transport in the country, a subject that has been controversial. A modeling of criteria and alternatives is carried through and applied a questionnaire based on method AHP the excellent actors in the system of urban transport - Leading of the Managing Agency Public Municipal theatre of Urban Transports, Controller of Company of Bus, Controller of Labor union, Controller of Union of Companies, Communitarian Leader. The considered alternatives were: the maintenance of the current state with collectors, the implementation of electronic collection without collectors, and the implementation of electronic collection with collectors. The used criteria were: job, impact in the fare, control of the system, easiness of use, information. The study was carried through in the city of Natal, RN, where if the adoption of electronic collection argues and where this implementation in some bus lines between Natal and Parnamirim exists, city that integrates the region of the great Natal. The main results of the method evidence in a dimension, the viability of use of method AHP with questionnaire by means of validation of the judgments with analysis of variance beyond proper the normal mechanisms of analysis of consistency to the method, and in another one, the contribution of the analysis boarding multicriterion to become the judgments more clearly. The main results of the analysis help to show that although to models of criteria and distinct judgments of the actors, the method evidenced that it has inclination the adoption of the electronic collection on the current situation, even so with divergences between the maintenance or not of the collector. The research points to the possibility of accomplishment of the application of the AHP in successive rounds of judgments