Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

A framework for investigating the use of face features to identify spontaneous emotions

Emotion-based analysis has raised a lot of interest, particularly in areas such as forensics, medicine, music, psychology, and human-machine interface. Following this trend, the use of facial analysis (either automatic or human-based) is the most common subject to be investigated once this type of data can easily be collected and is well accepted in the literature as a metric for inference of emotional states. Despite this popularity, due to several constraints found in real world scenarios (e.g. lightning, complex backgrounds, facial hair and so on), automatically obtaining affective information from face accurately is a very challenging accomplishment. This work presents a framework which aims to analyse emotional experiences through naturally generated facial expressions. Our main contribution is a new 4-dimensional model to describe emotional experiences in terms of appraisal, facial expressions, mood, and subjective experiences. In addition, we present an experiment using a new protocol proposed to obtain spontaneous emotional reactions. The results have suggested that the initial emotional state described by the participants of the experiment was different from that described after the exposure to the eliciting stimulus, thus showing that the used stimuli were capable of inducing the expected emotional states in most individuals. Moreover, our results pointed out that spontaneous facial reactions to emotions are very different from those in prototypic expressions due to the lack of expressiveness in the latter.