Automação da detecção de fraudes em sistemas de medição de energia elétrica utilizando lógica fuzzy em ambiente SCADA

This works presents a proposal to make automatic the identification of energy thefts in the meter systems through Fuzzy Logic and supervisory like SCADA. The solution we find by to collect datas from meters at customers units: voltage, current, power demand, angles conditions of phasors diagrams of voltages and currents, and taking these datas by fuzzy logic with expert knowledge into a fuzzy system. The parameters collected are computed by fuzzy logic, in engineering alghorithm, and the output shows to user if the customer researched may be consuming electrical energy without to pay for it, and these feedbacks have its own membership grades. The value of this solution is a need for reduce the losses that already sets more than twenty per cent. In such a way that it is an expert system that looks for decision make with assertivity, and it looks forward to find which problems there are on site and then it wont happen problems of relationship among the utility and the customer unit. The database of an electrical company was utilized and the datas from it were worked by the fuzzy proposal and algorithm developed and the result was confirmed

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Nova técnica para obtenção de fraturas com altíssima condutividade em poços de petróleo

Increase hydrocarbons production is the main goal of the oilwell industry worldwide. Hydraulic fracturing is often applied to achieve this goal due to a combination of attractive aspects including easiness and low operational costs associated with fast and highly economical response. Conventional fracturing usually involves high-flowing high-pressure pumping of a viscous fluid responsible for opening the fracture in the hydrocarbon producing rock. The thickness of the fracture should be enough to assure the penetration of the particles of a solid proppant into the rock. The proppant is driven into the target formation by a carrier fluid. After pumping, all fluids are filtered through the faces of the fracture and penetrate the rock. The proppant remains in the fracture holding it open and assuring high hydraulic conductivity. The present study proposes a different approach for hydraulic fracturing. Fractures with infinity conductivity are formed and used to further improve the production of highly permeable formations as well as to produce long fractures in naturally fractured formations. Naturally open fractures with infinite conductivity are usually encountered. They can be observed in rock outcrops and core plugs, or noticed by the total loss of circulation during drilling (even with low density fluids), image profiles, pumping tests (Mini-Frac and Mini Fall Off), and injection tests below fracturing pressure, whose flow is higher than expected for radial Darcian ones. Naturally occurring fractures are kept open by randomly shaped and placed supporting points, able to hold the faces of the fracture separate even under typical closing pressures. The approach presented herein generates infinite conductivity canal held open by artificially created parallel supporting areas positioned both horizontally and vertically. The size of these areas is designed to hold the permeable zones open supported by the impermeable areas. The England & Green equation was used to theoretically prove that the fracture can be held open by such artificially created set of horizontal parallel supporting areas. To assess the benefits of fractures characterized by infinite conductivity, an overall comparison with finite conductivity fractures was carried out using a series of parameters including fracture pressure loss and dimensionless conductivity as a function of flow production, FOI folds of increase, flow production and cumulative production as a function of time, and finally plots of net present value and productivity index

Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Avaliação da incontinência urinária de esforço em mulheres na pós-menopausa com e sem queixa de perda urinária através da aplicação do pad-test de 1 hora

Stress urinary incontinence (SUI) is defined as "involuntary loss of urine" due to several processes that alter the ability of the bladder to hold urine properly, regarded as a social and hygienic problem that adversely affects quality of life. In postmenopausal women, IU is associated with atrophy and weakness of the pelvic floor muscles. The objective this study was investigate, using the onehour pad test, stress urinary leakage (SUI), evaluate and compare their results in postmenopausal and premenopausal women. The survey was characterized as a cross-sectional study. The study consisted of 60 postmenopausal women were divided into GIU - consisting of 34 volunteers complaining of involuntary loss of urine during stress - and GSIU - consisting of 26 volunteers without complaints of loss of urine during stress, and 15 women, during the premenopausal (GPM), and ovulatory with normal menstrual cycle. All volunteers were evaluated clinically, subjected to one-hour pad test, after the biochemical evaluation of blood and sex hormones. Statistical analysis was performed by descriptive analysis, ANOVA, Turkey´s post-test and Pearson correlation. The results showed that 100% of postmenopausal patients had involuntary loss of urine during one hour pad test (GIU: 4.0 g; GSIU: 4.5 g). GPM remained continent after an hour pad test (GPM: 0.4 g). In addition, Pearson showed a strong correlation between urine loss with time since menopause (r = 0.8, p <0.01) and body mass index - BMI (r = 0.7; p = 0.01). These data suggest that the one-hour pad test is a useful test to assess and quantify urinary leakage, including those volunteers who had no previous complaint of SUI

Estudo psicossocial das perdas dentárias na terceira idade

The present study seeks to understand tooth loss by investigating the social representations in the daily life of elderly individuals, thus characterizing itself as a comparative and analytic research. It is known that tooth loss is a common occurrence in elderly individuals, interfering at the psychosocial and biological levels, through its functional, esthetical and social implications. The area of oral health in Brazil is lacking studies on this topic, especially with respect to the psychosocial aspects of the elderly. The Theory of Social Representations and the Central Nucleus Theory were selected for theoretical-methodological support. The Free Association of Words Test was used, whose inducing stimulus were the words tooth loss , in which each subject was asked to associate 3 words, to respond to a questionnaire related to socio-economic conditions and containing an investigation of tooth loss, access to odontological services and the need for dental treatment, and to undergo a focus group interview. The study sample consisted of 120 individuals 60 years of age or over, resident in Natal, RN, Brazil and participants of the Live Together to Live Better group of the Basic Health Unit of Felipe Camarão Residential District and Unati (Open University of the Elderly); an interview was performed with 36 subjects. Data analysis was performed by Evoc 2000, SPSS/99, Graph Pad and Alceste softwares. The results demonstrate that the central nucleus of the social representations of tooth loss for the Live Together group emerged from the difficulty in eating categories, showing a relation between physiologic necessity, desire and pleasure from eating, not to mention the pain that resulted from justifying the tooth loss. Besides the central discourses, the following peripheral elements were gathered: difficulty in adapting to the prosthesis, treatment and difficulty in speaking. All of these categories, except the last, also comprised the class themes of the group interview. For the Unati group the central nucleus emerged from the socio-economic difficulties categories, demonstrating a narrow relation between poverty, access to health and education and esthetics, confirming in the discourse of common sense, the association between tooth loss and aging. At the margin of the central discourses was collected the peripheral element difficulty in adapting to the prosthesis, found both in the Live Together and Unati groups, which expresses the resistance of the subject to this new situation and the failure of the rehabilitation treatment in the sense of reviving the memory of their natural teeth. All of these categories also constitute the class themes of the of the group interview. Thus, through the study of the social representations, we can reveal a reality in the perspective of the social subjects, contemplating the multiple facets of the social-cultural reality experienced by these individuals

Método de avaliação do gerenciamento de resíduos em canteiro de obras da construção civil : proposta baseada em empresas construtoras da cidade de Natal-RN

According to great concern between the developed industrial activities and resultant impacts over the environment, an association of several factors have occurred, procedures to the efficient management of the rotation between economical development and the environment have been improved. A research in field have been realized inside building sites of companies in order to provide knowledge about the implemented and accomplish actions according to the resolution from CONAMA nº307. Trough the interview among the representations of the companies and photographic survey in loco, such as, what makes the companies implement this management, reutilization and recycling, transport and disposition. The present study had as objective: analyze the insertion of the used tools to residuals management, proposing improvements, in a way that it can be easily identified during the procedures execution in the building sites of the building companies of the city of Natal/RN. To reach the goal, in the first place a revision of the pertinent literature was performed; there for, it can be seen the relation between residues management and environment sustainability, once it happens in a continued way it may prevent the waste and reduces the risk that the activities way bring to the employees, community and environment; once found the great difficult faced with regard to labors, material, equipment, project, planning, costumer s interference, furnisher. And still, it could be verified wich materials generate greater indexes of residues in the works and the main occurrences of waste and loss. However a greater transparency is needed coming from the high administration in the commitment with the continued actions, to make it so, there must be a cultural change inside the company. There for there will be a greater productivity and quality of the under taking such as costumer s satisfaction

Modelo de classificação para pequenas empresas supermercadistas quanto ao uso de técnicas de prevenção de perdas: um estudo de caso

The objective of this work is to draw attention to the importance of use of techniques of loss prevention in small retail organization, analyzing and creating a classification model related to the use of these in companies. This work identifies the fragilities and virtues of companies and classifies them relating the use of techniques of loss prevention. The used methodology is based in a revision of the available literature on measurements and techniques of loss prevention, analyzing the processes that techniques needed to be adopted to reduce losses, approaching the "pillars" of loss prevention, the cycle life of products in retail and cycles of continues improvement in business. Based on the objectives of this work and on the light of researched techniques, was defined the case study, developed from a questionnaire application and the researcher's observation on a net of 16 small supermarkets. From those studies a model of classification of companies was created. The practical implications of this work are useful to point mistakes in retail administration that can become losses, reducing the profitability of companies or even making them impracticable. The academic contribution of this study is a proposal of an unpublished model of classification for small supermarkets based on the use of techniques of loss prevention. As a result of the research, 14 companies were classified as Companies with Minimum Use of Loss Prevention Techniques - CMULPT, and 02 companies were classified as Companies with Deficient Use of Loss Prevention Techniques - CDULPT. The result of the research concludes that on average the group was classified as being Companies with Minimum Use of Techniques of Prevention of Losses EUMTPP, and that the companies should adopt a program of loss prevention focusing in the identification and quantification of losses and in a implantation of a culture of loss prevention

Fatores que afetam a satisfação e a fidelidade do cliente: um estudo com compradores de automóveis

This thesis presents a contribution to the study customer satisfaction models, analyzing the relationship between antecedent variables satisfaction and customer loyalty, through a survey with car s buyers in Natal. The theorical survey is focused in concepts of customer satisfaction and loyalty, and in the customer satisfaction index models. For the field survey, was applied a questionnaire, based on the Norwegian Customer Satisfaction Barometer (NCSB), considered by Johnson et al. (2001), with 106 customer of concessionary Fiat, the Pontanegra Automóveis. The main results obtained by the multiple regression analysis reveal that, considering the Fiat, the satisfaction is influencing by reliance degree in the firm seriousness and by complaining handling, the loyalty is influenced by possibility of again pay the same value if was again buy a car, the satisfaction degree with a car, affective commitment relationship firm customer of the own car and the complaining handling. Considering the concessionaire, the satisfaction is influenced by reliance degree in the firm seriousness, ability degree of the concessionaire in delivery service and by complaining handling, already the loyalty is influencing by possibility of again pay the same value if was again buy a car, affective commitment relations to be concessionaire s customer, by calculate commitment in relation the economic loss of bought this car of this firm and complaining handling

Avaliação da eficiência dos investimentos do programa Inova-RN em micro e pequenas empresas Uma integração da análise envoltória de dados e índice Malmquist

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Análise da influência de superfícies refletivas nas perdas de calor de sistema térmicos

The use of reflective surfaces functioning as thermal insulator has grown significantly over the years. Reflective thermal insulator are materials that have several characteristics such as low emissivity, low absorptivity and high reflectivity in the infrared spectrum. The use of these materials has grown a lot lately, since it contains several important radioactive properties that minimize the heat loss of thermal systems and cooling systems that are used to block the heat on the roof of buildings. A system made of three surfaces of 316 stainless steel mirror was built to analyze the influence of reflective surfaces as a way to reduce the heat loss and thereby conserve the energy of a thermal system. The system was analyzed both with and without the presence of vacuum, and then compared with a system that contained glass wool between the stainless steel mirror walls, since this isolator is considered resistive and also broadly used around the world in thermal systems. The reflectivity and emissivity of the surfaces used were also measured in this experiment. A type K thermocouple was fixed on the wall of the system to obtain the temperature of the stainless steel mirror surfaces and to analyze the thermal behavior of each configuration used. The results showed an efficiency of 13% when the reflective surfaces were used to minimize the heat loss of the thermal system. However, the system with vacuum had the best outcome, a 60% efficiency. Both of these were compared to the system made of glass wool as a thermal insulator

Remoção de hidrocarbonetos do gás natural visando o ajuste do índice de metano

The use of the natural gas is growing year after year in the whole world and also in Brazil. It is verified that in the last five years the profile of natural gas consumption reached a great advance and investments had been carried through in this area. In the oil industry, the use of the natural gas for fuel in the drive of engines is usual for a long date. It is also used to put into motion equipment, or still, to generate electric power. Such engines are based on the motor cycle of combustion Otto, who requires a natural gas with well definite specification, conferring characteristic anti-detonating necessary to the equipment performance for projects based on this cycle. In this work, process routes and thermodynamic conditions had been selected and evaluated. Based on simulation assays carried out in commercial simulators the content of the methane index of the effluent gas were evaluated at various ranges of pressure, temperature, flowrate, molecular weight and chemical nature and composition of the absorbent. As final result, it was established a route based on process efficiency, optimized consumption of energy and absorbent. Thereby, it serves as base for the compact equipment conception to be used in locu into the industry for the removal of hydrocarbon from the natural gas produced

Remoção de nitrogênio em biofiltros aerado e anóxico, com alto índice de vazios e sem remoção de lodo

The improper disposal of nitrogen in receiving water courses causes problems such as toxicity to living beings through the consumption of oxygen to meet the nitrogen demand, eutrophication and nitrate contamination of aquifers. For this reason it is often necessary to be carried out complementary treatment of wastewater to eliminate or reduce the concentration of this compound in the wastewater. The objective of this study is to evaluate the biological removal of nitrogen compounds using submerged aerated and anoxic filters as post-treatment of an anaerobic system, with low cost and innovative technology, which in previous studies has shown high removal efficiency of organic matter and great potential biological nitrogen compounds removal. The simple design with perforated hoses for air distribution and filling with plastic parts proved to be very efficient in relation to organic matter removal and nitrification. The system presented, in the best stage, efficiency in converting ammonia to nitrate by 71%, and produced a final effluent concentration below 10 mg / L of NH3-N. In addition, carbon concentration was removed by 77%, producing final effluent with 24 mg/L COD. However, denitrification in anoxic filter was not effective even with the addition of an external carbon source. There was a reduction of up to 56% of nitrogen caused by the process of simultaneous nitrification and denitrification (SND). The high voids space presented by this type of support material coupled with direct aeration of the sludge, allows the respiration of biomass retained between the endogenous phase, increased cell retention time and sludge retention capacity, producing a final effluent with turbidity less than 5 UT and total suspended solids around 5.0 mg/L

A produção das perdas dentárias: narrativas de usuários do SUS

For a complete comprehension of the effect of tooth loss is necessary to listen to the patients that have it. This study, of qualitative approach, investigate, in the dental history of users of SUS, listening to his/her experiences with the services of dental care, the reason that lead his/her to dental lost and the repercussion of this in his/her life. The collect of data was made by narrative interview, obeying to a pre-defined schema. The subjects interviewed were six (three of urban zone and three of rural zone), all of them were users of Family Health Units. The criterions of inclusion were the followings: the presence of tooth lost (total lost in both dental arch or in one of them, or partial lost in at least six elements in one of the arches); age between 25 and 59; male or female; to live in municipal district of São Tomé/RN or Natal/RN. Based on previous interviews was elaborated the odontological history of each patient. Such narratives, systemized in odontological history, were analyzed taking as base the studies of Souza71 and the proposal of Schutze, suggested for Jovchelovitch, Bauer34. The results show that toothache was the main reason for the search of odontological care. The patients confront the ache with home-made medicaments, allopathic ones, and searching for dental care. The searching for exodontics was stimulated for geographic access difficulties or for repressed demand, which as a result produced the aggravation of the lesions and the discredit in restoration s treatment. The self-care practice of tooth-brush with juá or toothpaste and the controlled ingestion of sugar was not sufficient to avoid dental lost. Guilty sentiments were identified in relation with lack of care with teeth. The acceptance of dental lost as a natural factor is an important motivation in lack of pain and in the belief that it was a simple part of life in old age. Life with dental prosthesis makes clear the difference between which was natural and which was unnatural, and difficulties with the prosthesis appeared. The limitation of the prosthesis in its functional aspect can be compensated by esthetic restitution, making possible smiling expression. Starting with this study and considering the high number of dental lost, mainly in low-rent population, which live with toothless limitations or bad-quality prosthesis which do not rehabilitate adequately, we suggested the realization of qualitative researches which include, also, another actors in heath care services such as professionals and administrators

Avaliação clínica da relação entre o índice de placa, índice gengival, alinhamento dental, mucosa ceratinizada, tipo de periodonto e distúrbios oclusais com a ocorrência de recessão gengival

This study clinically evaluated the relationship of gingival recessions with the periodontal index of gingival and plaque, dental alignment, keratinized mocous, type of periodontal, and occlusal disorders. Study participants were individuals aged between 19 and 33 years. The evaluations were performed by using questionnaires and clinical examinations. In subjects examined, the teeth were assessed and divided into groups (Molars, premolars, canines and incisors). The gingival recession were measured in the central region of the teeth and individuals were subject to disclosure to the plate and observing the poll of plaque and gingival index, respectively. 558 teeth were examined, with 24.1%, 135 had gingival recession greater than or equal to 1mm. Through the combination of tests used to evaluate the average of the recession and its relationship with the variables studied, we observed that the degree of recession of the elements assessed dental showed, almost for the most part, when higher values associated with the index plaque (p = 0.101), Gingival Index (p = 0.053), dental alignment (p = 0.962), width of keratinized mocous (p = 0.004) and type of periodontium (p = 0.033), however statistically significant difference could only be considered when related the recessions in the keratinized mocous and the type of the periodontium. Although we identify, when we evaluate the whole set of teeth that occlusal disturbances (p = 0.002) were more strongly associated with cases of gum recession that the gingival index (p = 0.006), however, these two conditions were correlated with the cases of recession, contributing to its occurrence