Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

O modelo de gestão estratégica do Ministério Público do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte: a análise da implantação do Balanced Scorecard

The goal of this research was to analyze the model of strategic management of the MPRN concerning the methodological guidelines presented by Balanced Scorecard. It is based in a theoretical referential which contemplates the themes, new public management, strategic management and Balanced Scorecard, focusing on applying the methodology in the public sector. This research is classified as descriptive and exploratory. According to the methods applied, it is a case study and, according to its approach, it is qualitative. The subjects of this research are members of the institution involved in the process of its strategic management. The data was collected by means of semi-structured interviews and document analysis, done by means of method content analysis. Concerning the goal of this research, it points out that the MPRN has not concluded the implantation cycle of Balanced Scorecard, furthermore, important flaws in the steps of organizational alingment have been identified, specially when it refers to communication policy, implementing incentive actions and focused training in developing competences. It yet reveals that the implantation of BSC has allowed the introduction of changes in the Institution dynamics to seek better results, however the MPRN has faced and has not adequately gotten over the same difficulties reported in various cases of BSC implantation in public organizations

Analise das melhores práticas em business process management: estudo de casos em organizações hospitalares de Natal/RN

O gerenciamento dos processos organizacionais vem sendo estudado pela ciência administrativa como forma de romper com o paradigma da estrutura organizacional funcional através da Gestão por Processos. O Business Process Management ( BPM alinhado às estratégias organizacionais e suportado cada vez mais pela Tecnologia da Informação (TI), proporciona clareza nas diversas pontas do processo colaborando para sua melhoria contínua com o objetivo de gerar valor agregado ao cliente. As organizações de saúde estão entre as empresas prestadoras de serviço pouco estudadas em relação ao gerenciamento por processos. Assim, este estudo analisou por meio de um estudo empírico de natureza qualitativa, como estão sendo conduzidos os processos organizacionais hospitalares à luz das melhores práticas em BPM. A pesquisa foi realizada através do estudo de casos múltiplos realizados em duas organizações hospitalares na cidade de Natal/RN. A literatura de referência apresentou diversos fatores para um desempenho otimizado em BPM, tratados nesta pesquisa como as melhores práticas em BPM. A partir da revisão da literatura foi elaborada uma síntese das melhores práticas de BPM que serviu de base para elaboração do modelo da pesquisa utilizado para coleta e análise dos dados. Este modelo indicou onze categorias que foram utilizadas para elaboração do roteiro de estrevistas semi-estruturadas, através da técnica de análise de conteúdo, com categorização de grade fechada. As categorias foram agrupadas em duas dimensões: Elementos relacionados à gestão ( governança ; liderança , alinhamento estratégico , cultura e conhecimento ) e elementos relacionados aos processos ( desenho , responsável , executores , tecnologia da informação e indicadores ), e ainda foi identificada uma terceira categoria: escritório de processos . Para seleção dos sujeitos desta pesquisa foi adotada a estratégia em cadeia ou bola de neve . Foi possível identificar que todas as categorias apontadas no modelo de pesquisa emergem entre os fatores buscados pelas organizações hospitalares para o gerenciamento por processos com destaque para categorias: cultura ; conhecimento ; desenho ; tecnologia da informação e indicadores . Em complemento às categorias de análise, foram identificadas dificuldades relacionadas à comunicação e integração dos diversos elos do processo. Além disso, constatou-se que nos hospitais investigados há um desvio do conceito de BPM no que diz respeito a seu objetivo final: agregar valor ao cliente. A pesquisa concluiu que o gerenciamento por processos nas organizações hospitalares investigadas encontra-se em fase inicial ou em desenvolvimento, sendo necessário superar as barreiras da comunicação e edificar uma cultura organizacional orientada às necessidades dos clientes para aplicação das melhores práticas de BPM, desta forma pesquisas futuras sobre este tema em outras organizações hospitalares, podem facilitar um estudo comparativo e ampliar o conhecimento no assunto

A organização do processo de projeto de arquitetura no meio profissional: uma análise da produção em escritórios

This paper examines, through case studies, the organization of the production process of architectural projects in architecture offices in the city of Natal, specifically in relation to building projects. The specifics of the design process in architecture, the production of the project in a professional field in Natal, are studied in light of theories of design and its production process. The survey, in its different phases, was conducted between March 2010 and September 2012 and aimed to identify, understand, and analyze comparatively, by mapping the design process, the organization of production of building projects in two offices in Natal, checking as well the relationships of their agents during the process. The project was based on desk research and exploration, adopting, for both, data collection tools such as forms, questionnaires, and interviews. With the specific aim of mapping the design process, we adopted a technique that allows obtaining the information directly from employee agents involved in the production process. The technique consisted of registering information by completing daily, during or at the end of the workday, an individual virtual agenda, in which all agent collaborators described the tasks performed. The data collected allowed for the identification of the organizational structure of the office, its hierarchy, the responsibilities of agents, as well as the tasks performed by them during the two months of monitoring at each office. The research findings were based on analyses of data collected in the two offices and on comparative studies between the results of these analyses. The end result was a diagnostic evaluation that considered the level of organization and elaborated this perspective, as well as proposed solutions aimed at improving both the organization of the process and the relationships between the agents under the lens analyzed

Análise da estrutura e transporte do zooplâncton no estuário do Rio Caravelas (Bahia-Brasil) através do uso do zooscan

Spatial-temporal dynamics of zooplankton in the Caravelas river estuary (Bahia, Brazil). The survey was conducted in order to describe the zooplankton community of the estuary Caravelas (Bahia, Brazil), to quantify and relate the patterns of horizontal and vertical transport with the type of tide (neap and spring) and tidal phase (flood and ebb). Zooplankton samples were collected with the aid of a suction pump (300L), filtered in plankton nets (300μm) and fixed in saline formalin 4%. Samples were collected at a fixed point (A1), near the mouth of the estuary, with samples taken at neap tides and spring tides during the dry and rainy seasons. Samples were collected for 13 hours, at intervals of 1 hour in 3 depths: surface, middle and bottom. Simultaneous collection of biological, we measured the current velocity, temperature and salinity of the water through CTD. In the laboratory, samples were selected for analysis in estereomicroscope, with 25 groups identified, with Copepoda getting the highest number of species. The 168 samples obtained from temporal samples were subsampled and processed on equipment ZooScan, with the aid of software ZooProcess at the end were generated 458.997 vingnettes. 8 taxa were identified automatically, with 16 classified as a semi-automatic. The group Copepoda, despite the limited taxonomic refinement ZooScan, obtained 2 genera and 1 species identified automatically. Among the seasons dry and wet groups Brachyura (zoea), Chaetognatha, and the Calanoid copepods (others), Temora spp., Oithona spp. and Euterpina acutifrons were those who had higher frequency of occurrence, appearing in more than 70% of the samples. Copepoda group showed the largest percentage of relative abundance in both seasons. There was no seasonal variation of total zooplankton, with an average density of 7826±4219 org.m-3 in the dry season, and 7959±3675 org.m-3 in the rainy season, neither between the types and phases of the tides, but seasonal differences were significant recorded for the main zooplankton groups. Vertical stratification was seen for the major zooplankton groups (Brachyura, Chaetognatha, Calanoida (other), Oithona spp, Temora spp. e Euterpina acutifrons). The scale of this stratification varied with the type (square or tide) and tidal phase (flood or ebb). The instantaneous transport was more influenced by current velocity, with higher values observed in spring tides to the total zooplankton, however, there was a variation of this pattern depending on the zooplankton group. According to the data import and export of total zooplankton, the outflow of organisms of the estuary was higher than the input. The results suggest that the estuary of Caravelas may influence the dynamics of organic matter to the adjacent coast, with possible consequences in National Marine Park of Abrolhos

Análise da recuperação em reservatório de gás com baixa permeabilidade (TIGHT GAS) através do fraturamento hidráulico

With the increasing of energetic consumption in the worldwile, conventional reservoirs, known by their easy exploration and exploitation, are not being enough to satisfy this demand, what has made necessary exploring unconventional reservoirs. This kind of exploration demands developing more advanced technologies to make possible to exploit those hydrocarbons. Tight gas is an example of this kind of unconventional reservoir. It refers to sandstone fields with low porosity, around 8%, and permeabilities between 0.1 and 0.0001 mD, which accumulates considerable amounts of natural gas. That natural gas can only be extracted by applying hydraulic fracturing, aiming at stimulating the reservoir, by creating a preferential way through the reservoir to the well, changing and making easier the flow of fluids, thus increasing the productivity of those reservoirs. Therefore, the objective of this thesis is analyzing the recovery factor of a reservoir by applying hydraulic fracturing. All the studies were performed through simulations using the IMEX software, by CMG (Computer Modelling Group), in it 2012.10 version