Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Proposta de válvula bypass para controle de velocidade de PIGs instrumentados: protótipo e simulação em bancada

In the Oil industry, oil and gas pipelines are commonly utilized to perform the transportation of production fluids to longer distances. The maintenance of the pipelines passes through the analysis of several tools, in which the most currently used are the pipelines inspection cells, popularly knowing as PIG. Among the variants existing in the market, the instrumented PIG has a significant relevance; acknowledging that through the numerous sensors existing in the equipment, it can detect faults or potential failure along the inspected line. Despite its versatility, the instrumented PIG suffers from speed variations, impairing the reading of sensors embedded in it. Considering that PIG moves depending on the speed of the production fluid, a way to control his speed is to control the flow of the fluid through the pressure control, reducing the flow rate of the produced flow, resulting in reduction of overall production the fluid in the ducts own or with the use of a restrictive element (valve) installed on it. The characteristic of the flow rate/pressure drop from restrictive elements of the orifice plate is deducted usually from the ideal energy equation (Bernoulli’s equation) and later, the losses are corrected normally through experimental tests. Thus, with the objective of controlling the fluids flow passing through the PIG, a valve shutter actuated by solenoid has been developed. This configuration allows an ease control and stabilization of the flow adjustment, with a consequent response in the pressure drops between upstream and downstream of the restriction. It was assembled a test bench for better definition of flow coefficients; composed by a duct with intern diameter of four inches, one set of shutters arranged in a plate and pressure gauges for checking the pressure drop in the test. The line was pressurized and based on the pressure drop it was possible to draw a curve able to characterize the flow coefficient of the control valve prototype and simulate in mockup the functioning, resulting in PIG speed reduction of approximately 68%.

Estudo de simulação de reservatórios para o desenvolvimento de um campo do nordeste brasileiro

In the last 16 years emerged in Brazil a segment of independent producers with focus on onshore basins and shallow waters. Among the challenges of these companies is the development of fields with projects with a low net present value (NPV). The objective of this work was to study the technical-economical best option to develop an oil field in the Brazilian Northeast using reservoir simulation. Real geology, reservoir and production data was used to build the geological and simulation model. Due to not having PVT analysis, distillation method test data known as the true boiling points (TBP) were used to create a fluids model generating the PVT data. After execution of the history match, four development scenarios were simulated: the extrapolation of production without new investments, the conversion of a producing well for immiscible gas injection, the drilling of a vertical well and the drilling of a horizontal well. As a result, from the financial point of view, the gas injection is the alternative with lower added value, but it may be viable if there are environmental or regulatory restrictions to flaring or venting the produced gas into the atmosphere from this field or neighboring accumulations. The recovery factor achieved with the drilling of vertical and horizontal wells is similar, but the horizontal well is a project of production acceleration; therefore, the present incremental cumulative production with a minimum rate of company's attractiveness is higher. Depending on the crude oil Brent price and the drilling cost, this option can be technically and financially viable.

Proposta de modelo de gestão de riscos para uma IFES visando a realização de auditoria baseada em riscos

Organizations are susceptible to the occurrence of many events that may affect the achievement of their objectives. As a result, Brazilian Public Administration supervisory bodies have required institutions to adopt risk management policies. Given the large number of recommendations issued by Federal Audit Court (TCU) to various Federal Institutions of Higher Education (IFES) in this area, it is proposed a risk management model for Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). This is an applied, exploratory and qualitative study. Regarding to technical procedures, it is characterized as documentary analysis, bibliographical research, case study and action research. The bibliographical research was used to support the elaboration of the Risk Management Guide for Federal Institutions of Higher Education (GERIFES). The documentary analysis, in turn, was used with the aim of knowing the organizational structure and the university´s macroprocesses. The author works in the university internal auditing department and shares the same problem. This characterizes the work as an action research. The case study supported both the elaboration of the guide and the simulation of the specific functionality for the university information system, demonstrated through the User Manual Module "Risk Management" proposed for the Integrated System of Property, Administration and Contracts (SIPAC). This manual has been prepared in order to facilitate the use of this tool if it will be incorporated into the university information system. As research results, a risk management model for UFRN was elaborated and a simulation of an informational tool, which is able to manage risks related to events that may affect the achievement of institutional objectives, was provided to the university administration.

A simulação como método de ensino de habilidades no curso de medicina: relato de uma experiência com punção lombar

The teaching of the lumbar puncture (LP) technique with simulator is not well systematized in the curricula of medical schools. Studies show that training in the simulator provides learning technical skills, acquisition and retention of knowledge, improve self-confidence of the learner and enables the transfer to clinical practice. We intend this study to introduce simulated training in LP in medical course at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte evaluating the experience taking into account quantitative aspects (performance on standardized tests) and qualitative (perception of the students regarding the method and the teaching process learning). The study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase practical training in PL was introduced in the 3rd year of medical school. Seventy-seven students were trained in small groups, guided by a checklist developed in the model Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill (OSATS), at this moment they knew they were not under performance evaluation. They were also asked whether they had prior chances to make an LP in patients. At the end of the first phase the students evaluated training in the following areas: teaching technique, simulator realism, time available per group, number of participants per group and relevance to medical practice. In the second phase, two years later, 18 students trained in first stage performed a new LP on the mannequin simulator, and its performance was evaluated through the same checklist of training in order to verify the technical retention. In addition, they answered a multiple choice test about practical aspects of the LP technique. Each participant received individual feedback on their performance at the end of their participation in the study. In the first phase of the study we found that only 4% of students had performed a lumbar puncture in patients until the 3rd year. The training of LP technique with simulator mannequin was considered relevant and the teaching methods was thoroughly evaluated. In the second phase, all participants were successful in implementing the lumbar puncture on the mannequin simulator, compliance with the most steps in a reasonable time, suggesting that would be able to perform the procedure in a patient.

Desempenho de uma lagoa de infiltração na absorção de cheias e na recarga de aquífero

A type of macro drainage solution widely used in urban areas with predomi-nance of closed catchments (basins without outlet) is the implementation of detention and infiltration reservoirs (DIR). This type of solution has the main function of storing surface runoff and to promote soil infiltration and, consequently, aquifer recharge. The practice is to avoid floods in the drainage basin low-lying areas. The catchment waterproofing reduces the distributed groundwater recharge in urban areas, as is the case of Natal city, RN. However, the advantage of DIR is to concentrate the runoff and to promote aquifer recharge to an amount that can surpass the distributed natu-ral recharge. In this paper, we proposed studying a small urban drainage catchment, named Experimental Mirassol Watershed (EMW) in Natal, RN, whose outlet is a DIR. The rainfall-runoff transformation processes, water accumulation in DIR and the pro-cess of infiltration and percolation in the soil profile until the free aquifer were mod-eled and, from rainfall event observations, water levels in DIR and free aquifer water level measurements, and also, parameter values determination, it is was enabled to calibrate and modeling these combined processes. The mathematical modeling was carried out from two numerical models. We used the rainfall-runoff model developed by RIGHETTO (2014), and besides, we developed a one-dimensional model to simu-late the soil infiltration, percolation, redistribution soil water and groundwater in a combined system to the reservoir water balance. Continuous simulation was run over a period of eighteen months in time intervals of one minute. The drainage basin was discretized in blocks units as well as street reaches and the soil profile in vertical cells of 2 cm deep to a total depth of 30 m. The generated hydrographs were transformed into inlet volumes to the DIR and then, it was carried out water balance in these time intervals, considering infiltration and percolation of water in the soil profile. As a re-sult, we get to evaluate the storage water process in DIR as well as the infiltration of water, redistribution into the soil and the groundwater aquifer recharge, in continuous temporal simulation. We found that the DIR has good performance to storage excess water drainage and to contribute to the local aquifer recharge process (Aquifer Dunas / Barreiras).

Segurança do paciente em terapia intensiva neonatal: identificação e análise de eventos adversos

The patient safety is a major concern in health services for its global dimension, as evidenced by the fragility of care processes that predispose an occurrence of adverse events. These events in a neonatal intensive care unit are considered serious and hazardous to lives of newborns. The present study aimed to identify and analyze adverse events in a neonatal intensive care unit based in Trigger Tool. It is an epidemiological, cross-sectional , exploratory, retrospective study with quantitative, descriptive and analytical approach, performed in 2015 at a school hospital. The sample was not probabilistic, involving 116 newborns who met the eligibility criteria. Data collection was performed by retrospective review of medical records, using a specific kind of "trigger" instrument, composed of sentinel events in neonatology, adapted from the American model used by the Vermont-Oxford Network. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The chi-square test for linear trend was used to assess the associations between the variables of interest. The research received a favorable agreement from Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, under number 1055533, and Presentation Certificate for Ethics Assessment 43894515.6.0000.5537. The results show among investigated newborns, 110 experienced at least one adverse event during their stay, with a total of 391 medical records analyzed and rate of 3.37 events per patient. Prevailed the preterm newborns with low birth weight, from mother who had hypertensive diseases during pregnancy and urinary tract infection. The average hospitalization time was 25 days, associated with hospital-acquired infections events (p = 0.01). Among the identified adverse events stood out the events related to thermoregulation disorders (39.0%), with prevalence of hypothermia (26.0%), followed by health care-related infections (16.4%) and blood glucose disorders, hypoglycemia (9.00%) and hyperglycemia (6.64%). Most of these incidents were classified in categories E and F, which represents that there was damage small proportion. Due to these damages come from the care practice with newborn, 78% were classified as avoidable. There was statistically significant association between the variable birth weight with infections (p = 0.006) as well as peri/intraventricular bleeding (p = 0.02), hypoglycemia (p = 0.021), hyperglycemia (p = 0.001), hyperthermia (p = 0.39) and death (p=0,02). Gestational age was associated with seizures (p = 0.002), hyperglycemia (p=0.017) e hyperthermia (p=0.027). The security institution culture was reported by the health workers as intermediate, even though the number of adverse events found in only one unit of service indicates that there is much to be done. Thus the high rate of adverse events identified in the neonatal intensive care unit reinforces the necessity to elaborate specific preventive strategies for this risk environment.

Segurança do paciente em terapia intensiva neonatal: identificação e análise de eventos adversos

The patient safety is a major concern in health services for its global dimension, as evidenced by the fragility of care processes that predispose an occurrence of adverse events. These events in a neonatal intensive care unit are considered serious and hazardous to lives of newborns. The present study aimed to identify and analyze adverse events in a neonatal intensive care unit based in Trigger Tool. It is an epidemiological, cross-sectional , exploratory, retrospective study with quantitative, descriptive and analytical approach, performed in 2015 at a school hospital. The sample was not probabilistic, involving 116 newborns who met the eligibility criteria. Data collection was performed by retrospective review of medical records, using a specific kind of "trigger" instrument, composed of sentinel events in neonatology, adapted from the American model used by the Vermont-Oxford Network. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The chi-square test for linear trend was used to assess the associations between the variables of interest. The research received a favorable agreement from Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, under number 1055533, and Presentation Certificate for Ethics Assessment 43894515.6.0000.5537. The results show among investigated newborns, 110 experienced at least one adverse event during their stay, with a total of 391 medical records analyzed and rate of 3.37 events per patient. Prevailed the preterm newborns with low birth weight, from mother who had hypertensive diseases during pregnancy and urinary tract infection. The average hospitalization time was 25 days, associated with hospital-acquired infections events (p = 0.01). Among the identified adverse events stood out the events related to thermoregulation disorders (39.0%), with prevalence of hypothermia (26.0%), followed by health care-related infections (16.4%) and blood glucose disorders, hypoglycemia (9.00%) and hyperglycemia (6.64%). Most of these incidents were classified in categories E and F, which represents that there was damage small proportion. Due to these damages come from the care practice with newborn, 78% were classified as avoidable. There was statistically significant association between the variable birth weight with infections (p = 0.006) as well as peri/intraventricular bleeding (p = 0.02), hypoglycemia (p = 0.021), hyperglycemia (p = 0.001), hyperthermia (p = 0.39) and death (p=0,02). Gestational age was associated with seizures (p = 0.002), hyperglycemia (p=0.017) e hyperthermia (p=0.027). The security institution culture was reported by the health workers as intermediate, even though the number of adverse events found in only one unit of service indicates that there is much to be done. Thus the high rate of adverse events identified in the neonatal intensive care unit reinforces the necessity to elaborate specific preventive strategies for this risk environment.

Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico

LINS, Filipe C. A. et al. Modelagem dinâmica e simulação computacional de poços de petróleo verticais e direcionais com elevação por bombeio mecânico. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE PESQUISA E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM PETRÓLEO E GÁS, 5. 2009, Fortaleza, CE. Anais... Fortaleza: CBPDPetro, 2009.

Volatilidade dos retornos e governança: um estudo de eventos da crise do subprime

The financial crisis that occurred between the years 2007 and 2008, known as the subprime crisis, has highlighted the governance of companies in Brazil and worldwide. To monitor the financial risk, quantitative tools of risk management were created in the 1990s, after several financial disasters. The market turmoil has also led companies to invest in the development and use of information, which are applied as tools to support process control and decision making. Numerous empirical studies on informational efficiency of the market have been made inside and outside Brazil, revealing whether the prices reflect the information available instantly. The creation of different levels of corporate governance on BOVESPA, in 2000, made the firms had greater impairment in relation to its shareholders with greater transparency in their information. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the subprime financial crisis has affected, between January 2007 and December 2009, the volatility of stock returns in the BM&BOVESPA of companies with greater liquidity at different levels of corporate governance. From studies of time series and through the studies of events, econometric tests were performed by the EVIEWS, and through the results obtained it became evident that the adoption of good practices of corporate governance affect the volatility of returns of companies

Militância, organização e mobilização antiproibicionista da maconha: coletivos, eventos e marchas em Natal (RN)

Based on the proposal entitled anti-prohibitionist, contrary to prohibition and illegality of cannabis and its use, the anti-prohibitionist Collectives proposes to discuss the topic of drugs, especially marijuana, aiming decriminalization and legalization of this psychoactive. With this idea was articulated anti-prohibitionist movement in Natal, by organizing collectives that discuss issues related to drug use and conduct activities directed to this issue, such as Marijuana Marches and Cycles of Debates anti-prohibitionist. In this study we sought to understand the positioning in social and cultural terms, the marijuana users participating of the collectives, on the situation of illegality of their actions, in front of social, legal and moral question involved in the illicit psychoactive, through initiatives conferences, events and demonstrations for this purpose

Modos projetuais de simulação: uso de ferramentas de simulação térmica no processo projetual de arquitetura

This thesis aims to describe and demonstrate the developed concept to facilitate the use of thermal simulation tools during the building design process. Despite the impact of architectural elements on the performance of buildings, some influential decisions are frequently based solely on qualitative information. Even though such design support is adequate for most decisions, the designer will eventually have doubts concerning the performance of some design decisions. These situations will require some kind of additional knowledge to be properly approached. The concept of designerly ways of simulating focuses on the formulation and solution of design dilemmas, which are doubts about the design that cannot be fully understood nor solved without using quantitative information. The concept intends to combine the power of analysis from computer simulation tools with the capacity of synthesis from architects. Three types of simulation tools are considered: solar analysis, thermal/energy simulation and CFD. Design dilemmas are formulated and framed according to the architect s reflection process about performance aspects. Throughout the thesis, the problem is investigated in three fields: professional, technical and theoretical fields. This approach on distinct parts of the problem aimed to i) characterize different professional categories with regards to their design practice and use of tools, ii) investigate preceding researchers on the use of simulation tools and iii) draw analogies between the proposed concept, and some concepts developed or described in previous works about design theory. The proposed concept was tested in eight design dilemmas extracted from three case studies in the Netherlands. The three investigated processes are houses designed by Dutch architectural firms. Relevant information and criteria from each case study were obtained through interviews and conversations with the involved architects. The practical application, despite its success in the research context, allowed the identification of some applicability limitations of the concept, concerning the architects need to have technical knowledge and the actual evolution stage of simulation tools

Utilização de um aplicativo de simulação computacional na avaliação de desempenho térmico de protótipo de habitação de interesse social (his)

This Masters Degree dissertation seeks to make a comparative study of internal air temperature data, simulated through the thermal computer application DesignBuilder 1.2, and data registered in loco through HOBO® Temp Data Logger, in a Social Housing Prototype (HIS), located at the Central Campus of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte UFRN. The prototype was designed and built seeking strategies of thermal comfort recommended for the local climate where the study was carried out, and built with panels of cellular concrete by Construtora DoisA, a collaborator of research project REPESC Rede de Pesquisa em Eficiência Energética de Sistemas Construtivos (Research Network on Energy Efficiency of Construction Systems), an integral part of Habitare program. The methodology employed carefully examined the problem, reviewed the bibliography, analyzing the major aspects related to computer simulations for thermal performance of buildings, such as climate characterization of the region under study and users thermal comfort demands. The DesignBuilder 1.2 computer application was used as a simulation tool, and theoretical alterations were carried out in the prototype, then they were compared with the parameters of thermal comfort adopted, based on the area s current technical literature. Analyses of the comparative studies were performed through graphical outputs for a better understanding of air temperature amplitudes and thermal comfort conditions. The data used for the characterization of external air temperature were obtained from the Test Reference Year (TRY), defined for the study area (Natal-RN). Thus the author also performed comparative studies for TRY data registered in the years 2006, 2007 and 2008, at weather station Davis Precision Station, located at the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE-CRN (National Institute of Space Research), in a neighboring area of UFRN s Central Campus. The conclusions observed from the comparative studies performed among computer simulations, and the local records obtained from the studied prototype, point out that the simulations performed in naturally ventilated buildings is quite a complex task, due to the applications limitations, mainly owed to the complexity of air flow phenomena, the influence of comfort conditions in the surrounding areas and climate records. Lastly, regarding the use of the application DesignBuilder 1.2 in the present study, one may conclude that it is a good tool for computer simulations. However, it needs some adjustments to improve reliability in its use. There is a need for continued research, considering the dedication of users to the prototype, as well as the thermal charges of the equipment, in order to check sensitivity

Simulação computacional como ferramenta de auxílio ao projeto: aplicação em edifícios naturalmente ventilados no clima de Natal/RN

Natural air ventilation is the most import passive strategy to provide thermal comfort in hot and humid climates and a significant low energy strategy. However, the natural ventilated building requires more attention with the architectural design than a conventional building with air conditioning systems, and the results are less reliable. Therefore, this thesis focuses on softwares and methods to predict the natural ventilation performance from the point of view of the architect, with limited resource and knowledge of fluid mechanics. A typical prefabricated building was modelled due to its simplified geometry, low cost and occurrence at the local campus. Firstly, the study emphasized the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, to simulate the air flow outside and inside the building. A series of approaches were developed to make the simulations possible, compromising the results fidelity. Secondly, the results of CFD simulations were used as the input of an energy tool, to simulate the thermal performance under different rates of air renew. Thirdly, the results of temperature were assessed in terms of thermal comfort. Complementary simulations were carried out to detail the analyses. The results show the potentialities of these tools. However the discussions concerning the simplifications of the approaches, the limitations of the tools and the level of knowledge of the average architect are the major contribution of this study

Simulação computacional de medidas estereológicas em estruturas de metal duro (WC-Co)

This work focuses on the creation and applications of a dynamic simulation software in order to study the hard metal structure (WC-Co). The technological ground used to increase the GPU hardware capacity was Geforce 9600 GT along with the PhysX chip created to make games more realistic. The software simulates the three-dimensional carbide structure to the shape of a cubic box where tungsten carbide (WC) are modeled as triangular prisms and truncated triangular prisms. The program was proven effective regarding checking testes, ranging from calculations of parameter measures such as the capacity to increase the number of particles simulated dynamically. It was possible to make an investigation of both the mean parameters and distributions stereological parameters used to characterize the carbide structure through cutting plans. Grounded on the cutting plans concerning the analyzed structures, we have investigated the linear intercepts, the intercepts to the area, and the perimeter section of the intercepted grains as well as the binder phase to the structure by calculating the mean value and distribution of the free path. As literature shows almost consensually that the distribution of the linear intercepts is lognormal, this suggests that the grain distribution is also lognormal. Thus, a routine was developed regarding the program which made possible a more detailed research on this issue. We have observed that it is possible, under certain values for the parameters which define the shape and size of the Prismatic grain to find out the distribution to the linear intercepts that approach the lognormal shape. Regarding a number of developed simulations, we have observed that the distribution curves of the linear and area intercepts as well as the perimeter section are consistent with studies on static computer simulation to these parameters.