Análise dos microssismos registrados no arquipélago de São Pedro e São Paulo (ASPSP) e suas relações com variáveis oceanográficas

Microseisms are continuous vibrations pervasively recorded in the mili Hertz to 1 Hz frequency range. These vibrations are mostly composed of Rayleigh waves and are strongest in the 0.04 to 1 Hz frequency band. Their precise source mechanisms are still a matter of debate but it is agreed that they are related to atmospheric perturbations and ocean gravity waves. The Saint Peter Saint Paul Archipelago (SPSPA) is located in the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean about 1,100 km distant from the Brazilian northeastern coast. The SPSPA is composed by a set of several small rocky formations with a total area of approximately 17,000 m². Due to its remote distance from the continent and the lack of cultural noise, this location is a unique location for measuring microseismic noise and to investigate its relation with some climate and oceanographic variables. In the SPSPA we have recorded both primary microseisms (PM) at 0.04 – 0.12 Hz and the secondary microseisms (SM) at 0.12 – 0.4 Hz during 10 months in 2012 and 2013. Our analysis indicates a good correlation between the microseismic noise in the region and a seasonal dependency. In particular, the winter in the northern hemisphere. We have also shown that most of the PM is generated in the SPSPA itself. The SM source location depends with the seasonal climatic and oceanographic variables in the northern hemisphere

Integração da simulação termoenergética com o processo de projeto: a análise de 6 casos

This work consists of the integrated design process analyses with thermal energetic simulation during the early design stages, based on six practical cases. It aims to schematize the integration process, identifying the thermal energetic analyses contributions at each design phase and identifying the highest impact parameters on building performance. The simulations were run in the DesignBuilder energy tool, which has the same EnergyPlus engine, validated. This tool was chosen due to the flexible and user friendly graphic interface for modeling and output assessment, including the parametric simulation to compare design alternatives. The six case studies energy tools are three architectural and three retrofit projects, and the author the simulations as a consultant or as a designer. The case studies were selected based on the commitment of the designers in order to achieve performance goals, and their availability to share the process since the early pre-design analyses, allowing schematizing the whole process, and supporting the design decisions with quantifications, including energy targets. The thermoenergetic performance analyses integration is feasible since the early stages, except when only a short time is available to run the simulations. The simulation contributions are more important during the sketch and detail phases. The predesign phase can be assisted by means of reliable bioclimatic guidelines. It was verified that every case study had two dominant design variables on the general performance. These variables differ according the building characteristics and always coincide with the local bioclimatic strategies. The adaptation of alternatives to the design increases as earlier it occurs. The use of simulation is very useful: to prove and convince the architects; to quantify the cost benefits and payback period to the retrofit designer; and to the simulator confirm the desirable result and report the performance to the client

Utilizando comitês de classificadores para predição de rendimento escolar

Educational Data Mining is an application domain in artificial intelligence area that has been extensively explored nowadays. Technological advances and in particular, the increasing use of virtual learning environments have allowed the generation of considerable amounts of data to be investigated. Among the activities to be treated in this context exists the prediction of school performance of the students, which can be accomplished through the use of machine learning techniques. Such techniques may be used for student’s classification in predefined labels. One of the strategies to apply these techniques consists in their combination to design multi-classifier systems, which efficiency can be proven by results achieved in other studies conducted in several areas, such as medicine, commerce and biometrics. The data used in the experiments were obtained from the interactions between students in one of the most used virtual learning environments called Moodle. In this context, this paper presents the results of several experiments that include the use of specific multi-classifier systems systems, called ensembles, aiming to reach better results in school performance prediction that is, searching for highest accuracy percentage in the student’s classification. Therefore, this paper presents a significant exploration of educational data and it shows analyzes of relevant results about these experiments.

Predição de séries temporais de parâmetros de redes HSPA - WCDMA

With the growing demand of data traffic in the networks of third generation (3G), the mobile operators have attempted to focus resources on infrastructure in places where it identifies a greater need. The channeling investments aim to maintain the quality of service especially in dense urban areas. WCDMA - HSPA parameters Rx Power, RSCP (Received Signal Code Power), Ec/Io (Energy per chip/Interference) and transmission rate (throughput) at the physical layer are analyzed. In this work the prediction of time series on HSPA network is performed. The collection of values of the parameters was performed on a fully operational network through a drive test in Natal - RN, a capital city of Brazil northeastern. The models used for prediction of time series were the Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt, Holt Winters Additive and Holt Winters Multiplicative. The objective of the predictions of the series is to check which model will generate the best predictions of network parameters WCDMA - HSPA.

Análise computacional de imagens de lâminas delgadas na predição dos parâmetros hidráulicos porosidade e condutividade hidráulica do aquífero Barreiras-RN

The understanding of the occurrence and flow of groundwater in the subsurface is of fundamental importance in the exploitation of water, just like knowledge of all associated hydrogeological context. These factors are primarily controlled by geometry of a certain pore system, given the nature of sedimentary aquifers. Thus, the microstructural characterization, as the interconnectivity of the system, it is essential to know the macro properties porosity and permeability of reservoir rock, in which can be done on a statistical characterization by twodimensional analysis. The latter is being held on a computing platform, using image thin sections of reservoir rock, allowing the prediction of the properties effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity. For Barreiras Aquifer to obtain such parameters derived primarily from the interpretation of tests of aquifers, a practice that usually involves a fairly complex logistics in terms of equipment and personnel required in addition to high cost of operation. Thus, the analysis and digital image processing is presented as an alternative tool for the characterization of hydraulic parameters, showing up as a practical and inexpensive method. This methodology is based on a flowchart work involving sampling, preparation of thin sections and their respective images, segmentation and geometric characterization, three-dimensional reconstruction and flow simulation. In this research, computational image analysis of thin sections of rocks has shown that aquifer storage coefficients ranging from 0,035 to 0,12 with an average of 0,076, while its hydrogeological substrate (associated with the top of the carbonate sequence outcropping not region) presents effective porosities of the order of 2%. For the transport regime, it is evidenced that the methodology presents results below of those found in the bibliographic data relating to hydraulic conductivity, mean values of 1,04 x10-6 m/s, with fluctuations between 2,94 x10-6 m/s and 3,61x10-8 m/s, probably due to the larger scale study and the heterogeneity of the medium studied.

Três alternativas estocásticas para modelar morbimortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares via variáveis atmosféricas

Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children and elderly population which live in São Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in the Sé region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in environmental planning and public health policies.

Transiente superdifusivo em caminhadas aleatórias com perfil de memória q-exponencial

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Índices de obesidade central e fatores de risco cardiovascular na síndrome dos ovários policísticos

Fundamento: A obesidade abdominal apresenta elevada prevalência em mulheres com síndrome dos ovários policísticos (SOP) e está associada a um aumento do risco cardiovascular. Objetivo: Verificar a acurácia da circunferência da cintura (CC), da relação cintura-quadril (RCQ), da relação cinturaestatura (RCEST) e do índice de conicidade (índice C), no que se refere à detecção de fatores de risco cardiovascular (FRCV) em mulheres com SOP. Métodos: Por meio de estudo transversal, foram alocadas 102 mulheres (26,5 ± 5 anos) com diagnóstico de SOP, de acordo com o consenso de Rotterdam. O colesterol total (CT), os triglicerídeos (TG), o LDL-colesterol (LDL-C), o HDLcolesterol (HDL-C), a glicemia de jejum, a glicemia após teste oral de tolerância à glicose (TOTG) e a pressão arterial (PA) foram avaliados em todas as pacientes, além das variáveis antropométricas. Resultados: A relação cintura-estatura foi o marcador que apresentou correlações positivas significativas com o maior número de FRCV (PA, TG e glicemia após TOTG), destacando-se ainda a correlação negativa com HDL-C. Todos os marcadores antropométricos avaliados se correlacionaram positivamente com PA, enquanto CC e RCQ apresentaram correlação positiva também com TG. No tocante à acurácia para detecção de FRCV, os indicadores antropométricos considerados apresentaram taxas de sensibilidade superiores a 60%, com destaque para a RCEST, que apresentou sensibilidade superior a 70%. Conclusão: A RCEST demonstrou ser o indicador antropométrico com a melhor acurácia para a predição de FRCV. Nesse sentido, propõe-se a inclusão desse parâmetro de fácil mensuração na avaliação clínica para o rastreamento de mulheres com SOP e FRCV----------------------ABSTRACT Background: Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) present a high prevalence of abdominal obesity, which is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. Objective: To verify the accuracy of the waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and the conicity index (CI) in the detection of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in women with PCOS. Methods: The present transversal study allocated 102 women (26.5 ± 5 years) with a diagnosis of PCOS, according to the Rotterdam criteria. Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting glucose, glucose after the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and blood pressure (BP) were evaluated in all patients, in addition to the anthropometric variables. Results: The WHtR was the marker that presented significant positive correlations with the highest number of CVRF (BP, TG and post-OGTT glucose), whereas there was a negative correlation with HDL-C. All the evaluated anthropometric markers were positively correlated with BP, whereas WC and WHR also presented a positive correlation with TG. Regarding the accuracy for the detection of CVRF, the anthropometric markers presented a sensibility > 60%, especially the WHtR, which had a sensibility > 70%. Conclusion: The WHtR showed to be the most accurate anthropometric indicator for the prediction of CVRF. In this sense, we propose the inclusion of this easily-measured parameter in the clinical assessment for the screening of women with PCOS and CVRF

Fatores críticos de sucesso como antecedentes da aceitação de um sistema de informação em uma universidade federal

In recent decades the public sector comes under pressure in order to improve its performance. The use of Information Technology (IT) has been a tool increasingly used in reaching that goal. Thus, it has become an important issue in public organizations, particularly in institutions of higher education, determine which factors influence the acceptance and use of technology, impacting on the success of its implementation and the desired organizational results. The Technology Acceptance Model - TAM was used as the basis for this study and is based on the constructs perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. However, when it comes to integrated management systems due to the complexity of its implementation,organizational factors were added to thus seek further explanation of the acceptance of such systems. Thus, added to the model five TAM constructs related to critical success factors in implementing ERP systems, they are: support of top management, communication, training, cooperation, and technological complexity (BUENO and SALMERON, 2008). Based on the foregoing, launches the following research problem: What factors influence the acceptance and use of SIE / module academic at the Federal University of Para, from the users' perception of teachers and technicians? The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of organizational factors, and behavioral antecedents of behavioral intention to use the SIE / module academic UFPA in the perspective of teachers and technical users. This is applied research, exploratory and descriptive, quantitative with the implementation of a survey, and data collection occurred through a structured questionnaire applied to a sample of 229 teachers and 30 technical and administrative staff. Data analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling with the technique of partial least squares (PLS). Effected primarily to assess the measurement model, which were verified reliability, convergent and discriminant validity for all indicators and constructs. Then the structural model was analyzed using the bootstrap resampling technique like. In assessing statistical significance, all hypotheses were supported. The coefficient of determination (R ²) was high or average in five of the six endogenous variables, so the model explains 47.3% of the variation in behavioral intention. It is noteworthy that among the antecedents of behavioral intention (BI) analyzed in this study, perceived usefulness is the variable that has a greater effect on behavioral intention, followed by ease of use (PEU) and attitude (AT). Among the organizational aspects (critical success factors) studied technological complexity (TC) and training (ERT) were those with greatest effect on behavioral intention to use, although these effects were lower than those produced by behavioral factors (originating from TAM). It is pointed out further that the support of senior management (TMS) showed, among all variables, the least effect on the intention to use (BI) and was followed by communications (COM) and cooperation (CO), which exert a low effect on behavioral intention (BI). Therefore, as other studies on the TAM constructs were adequate for the present research. Thus, the study contributed towards proving evidence that the Technology Acceptance Model can be applied to predict the acceptance of integrated management systems, even in public. Keywords: Technology

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants

Mapeamento acústico como ferramenta para predição de ruído urbano na área de influência do estádio Arena das Dunas, Natal/ RN

The Noise Pollution causes degradation in the quality of the environment and presents itself as one of the most common environmental problems in the big cities. An Urban environment present scenario and their complex acoustic study need to consider the contribution of various noise sources. Accordingly to computational models through mapping and prediction of acoustic scene become important, because they enable the realization of calculations, analyzes and reports, allowing the interpretation of satisfactory results. The study neighborhood is the neighborhood of Lagoa Nova, a central area of the city of Natal, which will undergo major changes in urban space due to urban mobility projects planned for the area around the stadium and the consequent changes of urban form and traffic. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the noise impact caused by road and morphological changes around the stadium Arena das Dunas in the neighborhood of Lagoa Nova, through on-site measurements and mapping using the computational model SoundPLAN year 2012 and the scenario evolution acoustic for the year 2017. For this analysis was the construction of the first acoustic mapping based on current diagnostic acoustic neighborhood, physical mapping, classified vehicle count and measurement of sound pressure level, and to build the prediction of noise were observed for the area study the modifications provided for traffic, urban form and mobility work. In this study, it is concluded that the sound pressure levels of the year in 2012 and 2017 extrapolate current legislation. For the prediction of noise were numerous changes in the acoustic scene, in which the works of urban mobility provided will improve traffic flow, thus reduce the sound pressure level where interventions are expected

Influência de variáveis arquitetônicas no desempenho energético de hotéis no clima quente e úmido da cidade de Natal/RN

This master thesis aims to assess the influence of the design decisions on the energy building performance of hotels. The research is based on the integration of field study and computer simulation. Firstly, a detailed field study is carried out to identify the characteristics of hotels in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The items assessed are occupancies, light and equipment densities, types of air conditioning, total and monthly energy consumption, among others. A second and more comprehensive field study is carried out to identify the range of occurrence of architectural variables, with a larger number of buildings. A base case is modelled in VisualDOE, based on the first field study. Then, a first set of simulations are run to explore the sensitivity of the variables on the energy consumption. The results analyses were the base of a second set of simulations, which combined the most influential variables. The results of 384 models were assessed, and the impacts of design decisions were quantified. The study discusses tendencies and recommendations, as well as the methods advantages and disadvantages

Efeito das variáveis laboratoriais protéticas na adesão da porcelana com ligas de níquel-cromo

The metalceramic crowns are usually used in dentistry because they provide a resistant structure due to its metallic base and its aesthetics from the porcelain that recovers this structure. To manufacture these crowns, a series of stages should be accomplished in the prosthetic laboratories, and many variables can influence its success. Changes in these variables cause alterations in the metallic alloy and in the porcelain, so, as consequence, in the adhesion between them. The composition of the metal alloy can be modified by recasting alloys, a common practice in some prosthetic laboratories. The aim of this paper is to make a systematic study investigating metalceramic crowns as well as analyzing the effect of recasting Ni-Cr alloys. Another variable which can influence the mechanism of metalceramic union is the temperature used in firing porcelain procedure. Each porcelain has to be fired in a fixed temperature which is determined by the manufacturer and its change can cause serious damages. This research simulate situations that may occur on laboratory procedures and observe their consequences in the quality of the metalceramic union. A scanning eletron microscopy and an optic microscopy were accomplish to analyse the metal-ceramic interface. No differences have been found when remelting alloys were used. The microhardness were similar in Ni-Cr alloys casted once, twice and three times. A wettability test was accomplished using a software developed at the Laboratório de Processamento de Materiais por Plasma, on the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. No differences were found in the contact angle between the solid surface (metallic substratum) and the tangencial plane to the liquid surface (opaque). To analyse if the temperature of porcelain firing procedure could influence the contact area between metal and porcelain, a variation in its final temperature was achieve from 980° to 955°C. Once more, no differences have been found

Predição não-linear de curvas de produção de petróleo via redes neurais recursivas

One of the main activities in the petroleum engineering is to estimate the oil production in the existing oil reserves. The calculation of these reserves is crucial to determine the economical feasibility of your explotation. Currently, the petroleum industry is facing problems to analyze production due to the exponentially increasing amount of data provided by the production facilities. Conventional reservoir modeling techniques like numerical reservoir simulation and visualization were well developed and are available. This work proposes intelligent methods, like artificial neural networks, to predict the oil production and compare the results with the ones obtained by the numerical simulation, method quite a lot used in the practice to realization of the oil production prediction behavior. The artificial neural networks will be used due your learning, adaptation and interpolation capabilities

Um sistema para a inferência de variáveis usando redes neurais artificiais

This work aims to obtain a low-cost virtual sensor to estimate the quality of LPG. For the acquisition of data from a distillation tower, software HYSYS ® was used to simulate chemical processes. These data will be used for training and validation of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This network will aim to estimate from available simulated variables such as temperature, pressure and discharge flow of a distillation tower, the mole fraction of pentane present in LPG. Thus, allowing a better control of product quality