Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Turismo cultural na ZEPH-Ribeira: possibilidades e limitações

Considering that urban interventions, planned and executed recently at Natal, RN, should put Ribeira - one of the town centers - in the new limits of the expanded center of the city, this work examines the use of this new accessibility for the benefit of the development of an infrastructure to support a type of tourism currently seen as an alternative to diversification into areas dominated by entertainment tourism (the case of Natal). A local with city's traditional cultural facilities and holder of a set built that is a synthesis of the images of the neighborhood, it fears that this increase in the potential for movement and flows of use stimulate speculation and deployment of a bulk type of activity incompatible with the preservation the architectural heritage. Important economy for the city, tourism has been showing a factor propellant processing urban related changes in accessibility. It is argued that cultural tourism, often used in plans and projects of revitalization across the country, may be factor for sustainable development and conserve the assets, and contributes to the process of revitalization of the historic cultural center as Ribeira. Intended to illustrate the need to consider other information that might help in the revitalization of the neighborhood, this research presents the offer cultural tourism of Ribeira and identifies and maps certain physical attributes that, combined with functional attributes, can stimulate or inhibit the diversity and vitality in the region

Interesses da habitação social : políticas e processos no Rio Grande do Norte

En 2003, le gouvernement brésilien (gestion Lula) a initié une nouvelle phase dans son histoire de l habitation, en intensifiant les constructions de logements sociaux au Brésil. Un tel accroissement a eut des répercussions tant en ville comme à la campagne, et fût marqué dans le Rio Grande do Norte, par la production a grande échelle d ensembles d habitations, dans les programmes de Gouvernement. Afin de viabiliser ces transformations, des instruments politiques, financiers et de gestion ont étés articulés conjointement, utilisant la répétition d une typologie d édification, comme modèle, accompagnée de la reproduction d une morphologie dans les constructions de logements sociaux. Afin de comprendre ce processus nous introduisons une recherche urbanistique et socio-économique du problème du logement social au Brésil, en cherchant à mettre en relation les aspects techniques avec les questions historique, professionnelles et culturelles, éléments complémentaires. Notre analyse cherche a identifier comment les politiques de gestion et financement officielles (administrées dans sa grande majorité par la Caisse Économique Fédérale -CEF-), influencent le processus de conception de projets, en provoquant les répétitions de type/morphologiques, déjà citées. Basée sur l observation directe au cour de deux expériences différenciées pour du logement social en milieu rural, au Rio Grande do Norte, nous montrerons aussi certaines limitations et possibilités des acteurs sociaux, face aux agents et politiques officielles pour le logement social au Brésil, proposant des solutions alternatives standardisées qui caractérisent le résultat des projets financées et gérés par la CEF. Nos principales références théoriques et méthodologiques sont Nabil Bonduki (1998), David Harvey (2009,1982), Henry Lefèbvre (1970), Ermínia Maricato (2010, 2009, 2000, 1987) et Raquel Rolnik (2010, 2009, 2008, 1997)

Estudo comparativo de dois tipos de cultivo: monocultivo (camarões) versus cultivo integrado (algas/camarões)

The integrated culture of seaweed and aquatic animals is an ancient practice in Asian countries. The expansion of this practice to western countries is consequence of the recognition of this system as a sustainable alternative that allows economical diversification and mitigation of environmental impacts generated by effluents of aquaculture. This study evaluated the growth of the seaweed Gracilaria caudata and of the shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei in monoculture (shrimps) and integrated culture (shrimps and algae) systems, and accessed the effect of the seaweed in the water quality. There were two treatments in the experiment: monoculture (shrimps) and integrated culture (shrimps/ algae). The organisms were cultured in 6 aquaria (10L) filled with seawater (35.0±0.0 PSU and 28.1±0.4°C) for 28 days. The nutrients of water (PO43-, NH4+, NO2-, NO3- and DIN), the biomass and the relative growth rate (RGR, % day-1) of seaweed and shrimps were measured weekly. The parameters pH, temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen were measured daily. The concentration of NH4+ in integrated culture (62.8±25.2µM) was lower (Mann-Whitney p<0.001) than in monoculture (85.6±24.3µM). The mean of PO4- in monoculture (10.4±4.6µM) was markedly higher (Mann-Whitney; p=0.024) than that in integrated culture (8.7±4.1µM). The level of dissolved oxygen in integrated culture (6.0±0.6mg/L) was higher (t-Student; P=0.014) than that in shrimp monoculture (5.8±0.6mg/L). The mean values of the parameters pH, NO2-, NO3- and DIN were 7.5±0.2, 10.1±12.2µM, 24.5±3.2µM and 120.17±30.76µM in monoculture, and 7.5±0.2, 10.5±13.2µM, 27.4±3.5µM and 100.76±49.59µM in integrated culture. There were not differences in these parameters between treatments. The biomass and RGR of seaweed reached 15.0±1.9g and 7.4±2.8% day-1 at the end of the experiment. The performance of shrimp was favorable in monoculture (1.5±0.8g; 5.7±1.6% dia-1) and in integrated culture (1.5±0.7g; 5.2±1.2% dia-1), and the rate of survival was 100% in both treatments. The tolerance and favorable performance of Gracilaria caudata suggest that this seaweed might be integrated into shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) culture systems

Parâmetros citogenéticos de espécies comerciais de carangidae (perciformes), com vistas a sua empregabilidade na conservação biológica e piscicultura marinha

Worldwide, families Carangidae and Rachycentridae represent one of the groups most important commercial fish, used for food, and great potential for marine aquaculture. However, the genetic bases that can underpin the future cultivation of these species, cytogenetic between these aspects are very weak. The chromosomal patterns have provided basic data for the exploration of biotechnological processes aimed at handling chromosomal genetic improvement, such as induction of polyploidy, androgenesis and ginogenesis, as well as obtaining monosex stocks and interspecific hybridizations. This paper presents a comprehensive cytogenetic survey in 10 species, seven of the family Carangidae and the monotypic family Rachycentridae. Classical cytogenetic analysis and in situ mapping of multigene sequences were employed, and additionally for the genus Selene and morphotypes of Caranx lugubris, comparisons were made using geometric morphometrics. In general, conservative species exhibit a marked chromosome number (2n=48). Although present in large part, different karyotypic form, retain many characteristics typical of chromosomal Order Perciformes, the high number of elements monobrachyal, Ag-NORs/18S rDNA sites and heterochromatin simply reduced, preferably centromeric. The main mechanisms involved in karyotypic diversification are the pericentric inversions, with secondary action of centric fusions. In addition to physical mapping and chromosome detail for the species are presented and discussed patterns of intra-and interspecific diversity, cytotaxonomic markers. This data set provides a better understanding of these patterns caryoevolutyonary groups and conditions for the development of protocols based on Biotechnology for chromosomal manipulation Atlantic these species