Aplicação do Na2S2O8, H2O2 e ferro na remediação de solos (latossolo e areia destrófica) contaminados com diesel

Environmental liabilities from accidents in the retail petroleum industry, especially in urban areas, have represented a serious problem whose impact reaches the underground, people's health and even economic losses with the remediation process. In U.S.A. are estimated hundreds of billions of dollars invested in soil remediation processes. The results of the reports and investigative reports of liabilities in fuel stations distributed in the urban area of Natal-RN were used to estimate the local scenario of contamination. This database has been possible to determine the main contaminants (BTEX, PAHs, TOC), affected neighborhoods and types of potentially more impacted soils. Experiments were carried out in order to reverse contamination of this scenario, where the soil type was a factor in the planning, because it influences directly on the effectiveness of remediation techniques studied: Oxidation by hydrogen peroxide and oxidation by sodium persulphate. These oxidants are activated forming free radicals (HO•-, SO4 •-, HO2 • , O2 •-, S2O8 -2, etc) responsible for to mineralize the hydrocarbons and other organic compounds (releasing O2 e CO2). In the activation process, the ferrous ions (II) and ferric (III) were studied as well as hydrogen peroxide activation technique with sodium persulfate, the latter being presented the best efficiency among all the study, when activated with Fe+3. In addition to defining the most efficient technique, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of different soils among oxidative techniques, characterizing the effect of the concentration of these oxidants and also the concentration of the catalysts. Exists in most scenarios evaluated the presence of intrinsic total iron soil matrix. The so-called latosols present microaggregates reddish indicating the presence of these reactive species like iron and clayey aspect. The kinetic study was conducted by experimental design and monitoring of the percentage of total carbon (SSM-5000A) in the solid and liquid phases, knowing that 82.4% of the diesel molecule is carbon. Yet organic carbon and pH of liquid samples were analyzed for technical, characterizing the influence of soil type and its operating condition. The Fenton-like technique H2O2 e Fe+2 presented satisfactory oxidation, including sandy soil, but well below the best result. The sodium persulphate only activated with temperature, even in the most favorable soil, did not provide good efficiency. The best technique in the study had the concentration profile with 2,2x10- 1mol.L-1 of Na2S2O8 activated with 6,53x10-1mol.L-1 of H2O2 and 2,5x10-2 Fe3+mol.L-1 which reduced in less than a day 96 contamination in red soil, initially with 66,667 mg of diesel per kg of clean soil

O atendimento do enfermeiro aos acidentados de trânsito terrestre

Considered the disease of the 20th century, the trauma is still the main cause of mortality in the age group of one to forty-four years old in World, and among several possible etiologies, the terrestrial transit accident has a strong impact on these statistics. The operational essentiality of nurses in the organization and integration of this scenario of care to the terrestrial transit casualties and the recognition that the moments after the trauma are decisive in the victim's prognosis, justify this study. Thus, it was sought to evaluate the nurses´care to casualties of land transit in this crucial process in a public hospital in urgent and emergency reference. This is an normative evaluative study with qualitative approach, carried out at the Hospital Monsenhor Walfredo Gurgel, located in the municipality of Natal/RN. Data collection occurred in May 2014, with approval of the Ethics Committee in Research (CAAE 27971114.9.0000.5537). The target population of the study were the nurses who work in Politrauma area of the hospital, following the inclusion criteria: agree to be part of the study voluntarily and act in the mentioned area and, as exclusion: allocated professionals in other areas (eventually acting in the area) and professionals on vacation and/or medical license. A semi-structured interview and non-participant observation was held to obtain data submitted subsequently to the technique of Content Analysis based on Bardin. The lack of specific training for trauma care was identified, whose severity can be mitigated with proper and skilled care. Therefore, the urgent need of the nurses' training for qualification of care to the victims of traffic accidents on land was evidenced

Trajetória de vida dos pescadores vítimas de lesão medular por mergulho: experiências, representações sociais e estresse

Spinal cord injury causes permanent disabling manifestations, affecting the anatomic integrity, bodily changes and functional limitations related to the disability state. It was aimed to analyze the social representation, stress level and experiences of fishermen victims of spinal cord injury caused by diving accident in the Northern beaches of Brazil. It is a descriptive - exploratory study with quantitative, qualitative and representational data developed i n fishermen’s villages in nine beaches of Northern shore/RN, between October 2013 to August 2014, after the approval of the Ethics Committee in Research of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, under the number 431.891/2013, CAAE 20818913.0.0000 .5537. The sample was composed by 44 fishermen with spinal cord injury, defined from inclusion and exclusion criteria of the participants. It was used as instrument to collect the data a semi structured interview. Quantitative data was analyzed by descrip tive statistics, showing the data through table, boxes and graphics by Microsoft Excel. Data from interviews were submitted to the software called Analyse Lexicale par Contexte d’un Ensemble de Segments de Texte (ALCESTE) using the analysis of the Social R epresentation Theory and Center Core Theory. It is shown the outcomes of the research through four articles, following the normative recommendations of the journals. Participants of the study were all male, age mean 49,6 years, elementary school (68,2%), m arried (77,3%); paraplegia sequel (50,0%). Most of them showed stress (75,0%), almost in the exhaustion stage (33,3%), prevalent insomnia symptoms (95,5%) in the last hours; hypertension (97,7%) in the last week and sexual troubles (95,5%) in the last mont h). Decompressive illness caused spinal cord injury (57,1%), occurred prevalently in low summer (75,0%), northern shore (96,4%), having as main consequences the paresthesia and pain in the upper and lower limbs (67,9%), followed by death (25,0%). Interview analysis under the understanding of Social Representation of spinal cord injury allowed the appearance of seven categories: Treatment: limitation and expectative; Spinal Cord injury: before and after; Retirement: reality yet to come; Disability: dependenc y, incapacity, vulnerability; Overcoming and autonomy; Self feelings: physics losses and new start; Life and labor: impediments, plans and changes. The center core of the representation is found in the first category by the expectative and limitation on th e treatment, meanwhile the outskirt elements are in seventh and third categories. Physics limitation for fishing activities and retirement expectative is the most outstanding of the structure. Social representation concerning spinal cord injury is found in a transaction moment between before and after with the prevented fishing activity, coping of the situation with the potential remaining. The anchoring is established in the desire for changes related to the improvements of life and health conditions exper ienced day by day through faith. This study finishes pointing out the range of the objectives, which topic is relevant for public health of fishermen. It is suggested prevention measures, promotion and health recovery of fishermen, besides safe, healthy an d worthy conditions as a compromise of social and health politics.

Fatores que influenciam a predisposição dos usuários em aderir a uma política de segurança da informação

The information constitutes one of the most valuable strategic assets for the organization. However, the organizational environment in which it is inserted is very complex and heterogeneous, making emerging issues relevant to the Governance of information technology (IT) and Information Security. Academic Studies and market surveys indicate that the origin of most accidents with the information assets is the behavior of people organization itself rather than external attacks. Taking as a basis the promotion of a culture of safety among users and ensuring the protection of information in their properties of confidentiality, integrity and availability, organizations must establish its Information Security Policy (PSI). This policy is to formalise the guidelines in relation to the security of corporate information resources, in order to avoid that the asset vulnerabilities are exploited by threats and can bring negative consequences to the business. But, for the PSI being effective, it is required that the user have readiness to accept and follow the procedures and safety standards. In the light of this context, the present study aims to investigate what are the motivators extrinsic and intrinsic that affect the willingness of the user to be in accordance with the organization's security policies. The theoretical framework addresses issues related to IT Governance, Information Security, Theory of deterrence, Motivation and Behavior Pro-social. It was created a theoretical model based on the studies of Herath and Rao (2009) and D'Arcy, Hovav and Galletta (2009) that are based on General Deterrence Theory and propose the following influencing factors in compliance with the Policy: Severity of Punishment, Certainty of Detection, Peer Behaviour, Normative Beliefs, Perceived Effectiveness and Moral Commitment. The research used a quantitative approach, descriptive. The data were collected through a questionnaire with 18 variables with a Likert scale of five points representing the influencing factors proposed by the theory. The sample was composed of 391 students entering the courses from the Center for Applied Social Sciences of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. For the data analysis, were adopted the techniques of Exploratory Factor Analysis, Analysis of Cluster hierarchical and nonhierarchical, Logistic Regression and Multiple Linear Regression. As main results, it is noteworthy that the factor severity of punishment is what contributes the most to the theoretical model and also influences the division of the sample between users more predisposed and less prone. As practical implication, the research model applied allows organizations to provide users less prone and, with them, to carry out actions of awareness and training directed and write Security Policies more effective.

Abordagem da ergonomia para avaliação do treinamento simulado das equipes de resposta à emergência em lançamentos de veículos aeroespaciais

This dissertation introduces a study that aims to analyze the simulated training of emergency teams and proposes recommendations for the current training system in order to improve the collective skills and resilience of these teams when facing possible critical situations, triggered by possible accident occurrences during aerospace vehicle launching operations in the Barreira do Inferno Launch Center in Parnamirim / RN. This is a field, exploratory, descriptive, explanatory, and a case study with a qualitative approach. Therefore, we adopted the ergonomics approach, using the situated method of ergonomic work analysis (AET), combining observational and interactive methods. The relevance of this research is characterized by the contributions to minimize the human and material hazzards resulting from possible accidents in these operations, the scientific contribution of the AET for simulated emergency training analysis in the launching operations of aerospace vehicles - which are complex and involve risk of accidents - and consequently, the scientific contribution to the current process of recovering the Brazilian Space Program. The survey results point to problems of various kinds in the current simulated training system which compromise the safety of the operations. These problems are grouped into four categories: technological, organizational, team training and from the activity itself, regarding more specifically communication and cooperation (among the team members and these ones with other sectors involved in the launching operation) and regarding the coordination of actions. We propose: a) a new training model, from the creation and application of scenarios based on postulated abnormalities, which could simulate real critical situations, in order to train and improve the skills of the emergency response teams especially in terms of communication, coordination and cooperation; b) restructuring and reorganizing the current training system, based on the formal establishment of a managing staff, on the clear division of responsibilities, on the standardization of processes, on the production of management indicators, on the continuous monitoring, on the feedback from trainees about the quality of the training and on the continuing and frequent training of emergency teams.

Análise fitoquímica e avaliação das atividades anti-inflamatória, antipeçonhenta e citotóxica de extratos aquosos de Aspidosperma pyrifolium e Ipomoea asarifolia

Envenomation caused by venomous animals, mainly scorpions and snakes, are a serious matter of public health. Tityus serrulatus is considered the most venomous scorpion in South America because of the high level of toxicity of its venom. It is responsible for causing serious accidents, mainly with kids. The species Bothrops jararaca is a serpent that has in its venom a complex mixture of enzyme, peptides and other molecules. The toxins of the venom of B. jararaca induce local and systemic inflammatory responses. The treatment chosen to serious cases of envenomation is the intravenous administration of the specific antivenom. However, the treatment is not always accessible to those residents in rural areas, so that they use medicinal plant extracts as the treatment. In this context, aqueous extracts, fractions and isolated compounds of Aspidosperma pyrifolium (pereiro) and Ipomoea asarifolia (salsa, salsa-brava), used in popular medicine, were studied in this research to evaluate the anti-inflammatory activity in the peritonitis models induced by carrageenan and peritonitis induced by the venom of the T. serrulatus (VTs), and in the local oedema model and inflammatory infiltrate induced by the venom of the B. jararaca, administrated intravenously. The results of the assays of cytotoxicity, using the MTT, showed that the aqueous extracts from the plant species presented low toxicity to the cells that came from the fibroblast of the mouse embryo (3T3).The chemical analysis of the extracts by High Performance Liquid Chromatography revealed the presence of the rutin flavonoid, in A. pyrifoliu, and rutin, clorogenic acid and caffeic acid, in I. asarifolia. Concerning the pharmacological evaluation, the results showed that the pre-treatment using aqueous extracts and fractions reduced the total leukocyte migration to the abdominal cavity in the peritonitis model caused by the carrageenan and in the peritonitis model induced by the T. serulatus venom. Yet, these groups presented anti-oedematous activity, in the local oedema model caused by the venom of the B. jararaca, and reduced the inflammatory infiltrate to the muscle. The serum (anti-arachnid and anti-bothropic) specific to each venom acted inhibiting the inflammatory action of the venoms and were used as control. The compounds identified in the extracts were also tested and, similar to the plant extracts, showed meaningful anti-inflammatory effects, in the tested doses. Thus, these results are indicating the potential anti-inflammatory activity of the plants studied. This is the first research that evaluated the possible biological effects of the A. pyrifolium and I. asarifolia, showing the biological potential that these species have.

Avaliação anti-inflamatória e antipeçonhenta das espécies Hancornia speciosa e Mimosa tenuiflora em modelos experimentais de inflamação e envenenamento induzidos por Bothrops jararaca e Tityus serrulatus

Accidents caused by venomous animals represents a significant and serious public health problem in certain regions of Brazil, as well as in other parts of the world by the frequency with which they occur and the mortality they cause. The use of plant extracts as an antidote for poisoning cases is an ancient practice used in many communities that have no access to antivenom. Medicinal plants represent an important source of obtaining bioactive compounds able to assist directly in the treatment of poisoning or indirectly supplementing serum therapy currently used. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of extracts, fractions and isolated compounds from M. tenuiflora and H. speciosa in the inflammatory process induced by carrageenan and the venom of B. jararaca and T. serrulatus. The results showed that both M. tenuiflora and H. speciosa were capable of inhibiting cell migration and cytokines levels in peritonitis induced by carrageenin and venom of T. serrulatus. In poisoning by B. jararaca model, mice treated with the plants in studies decreased the leukocyte influx into the peritoneal cavity. Finally the M. tenuiflora and H. speciosa had antiphlogistic activity, reducing edema formation and exerted inhibitory action of leukocyte migration in local inflammation induced by the venom of B. jararaca. Through of Thin Layer Chromatography (TLC) analysis was possible identified the presence of flavonoids ,saponins and/or terpenes in aqueous extract of M. tenuiflora. By High Performance Liquid Chromatography analysis, it was possible to identify the presence of rutin and chlorogenic acid in aqueous extract of H. speciosa. We conclude that the administration of extracts, fractions and isolated compounds of H. speciosa and M. tenuiflora resulted in inhibition of the inflammatory process in different experimental models. This study demonstrates for the first time the effect of M. tenuiflora and H. speciosa in inhibition of the inflammation caused by B. jararaca and T. serrulatus venom.

Química em cena: uma proposta para formação inicial de professores de química

In educational observed difficulty in train teachers to meet the medium and higher education needs, and one reason for this is the different experiences in the training of educators in relation to those found in the classroom. So often arise criticisms related to relevance and efficiency of degree courses, as regards the performance of its natural mission, which weakens the teacher training. Thus, improving the quality of education is very dependent on the initiatives of teachers, creating teaching alternatives to strengthen their performance in school. From this reflection, it is concluded that teacher training needs new educational proposals that qualify, and so can promote the formation of his students more adequately. Among the educational proposals as alternatives to initial teacher training may use the scientific theater (TC). Considering this possibility, this work has been proposed as investigate and discuss the influence of TC combined with experimentation in the initial training of future teachers in Chemistry who participate in the Groups Fanatics chemistry Theatre (UERN) and Chemistry on Stage (UFRN). Therefore, there was, in a first stage, theatrical essays based on the theater of the oppressed, and written dramaturgical scripts, a collaborative proposal. To incorporate experimentation in chemistry to theater rehearsals, there was a systematic literature search and after content analysis, were selected categories, materials and reagents easily accessible, easy procedures and implementation with low risk of accidents and easy care chemical waste. In the second part we identified: a) the beliefs of student teachers in the use of TC ally trial for initial training of chemistry teachers; b) the influence of TC ally to trial on learning of chemical concepts of high school students who attended the shows; c) the reasons for using or not TC ally to trial by chemistry teachers who participated in the TC group and currently work in the classroom. In this study, questionnaires and interviews were used, compounds, respectively, by a Likert scale and open questions. Quantitative data were analyzed by classical statistics the media, using as centrality measures the average, the concordance argument and the average deviation. Qualitative data were discussed according to content analysis, with categories that emerged from reading the answers. These analyzes concluded that the licensees have a positive view on the use of scientific theater for disclosure of the chemical for use in the learning of chemical concepts, pedagogical and disciplinary knowledge, and to form promotion strategy for research and extension at the University. They credit improvements in their initial training on the use of scientific theater combined with experimentation. The TC provides motivation for the construction of conceptual thinking in an informal way of chemical communication, allowing the student to expand their knowledge, not only favoring the phenomenological approach, but also the construction of chemical knowledge and the internalization of scientific concepts.

Riscos à saúde dos trabalhadores em unidade de alimentação e nutrição de um Hospital Universitário

The Food and Nutrition Units (FNU) are designed to produce food for healthy and/or sick communities and need to be done in a way to ensure the quality of foodstuffs that were produced. In these units, in the working environment, in general, there is excessive noise, heat and physical condition with many adaptations, presence of obstacles, inadequate flows, as well as the ways of the working organization may represent risks for workers health and lead to errors during production and/or distribution of food. The main goal of this study was to analyse the working processes in the Food Production Unit of the university’s hospital and identify the workers' health risk factors, using for this the knowledge of ergonomics, specifically the method of Ergonomic Work Analysis (EWA). After this analysis it was possible to develop proposals that will bring improvements to the working conditions, minimizing health risk factors during the process of meals production. It’s crucial to reassert this method considers the work activity performed in real time and highlights the importance of listening and the engagement of the workers in the changing process. It is a descriptive research with a qualitative approach. In the field research were collected demographics data, employment characteristics of the individuals (age, education, stocking sector, the total length of service and length of service in the industry) and data related to their usual work (task analysis, activity analysis and Analysis of the working environment) in the FNU. The instruments that were used in this study were document analysis, global and systematic observations and semi structured interviews in order to identify the main complaints related to those activities developed by them. The study was based on data for the analysis of Bardin, 2011, so the documents have been selected and including those that treat issues related to risks to workers' health were selected. The result of semi-structured interviews, global and systematic observations took place a confrontation of this material to the theoretical framework, held the inference and the interpretation of results the light of the knowledge of ergonomics and legislation. Issues related to the risks and the perception of workers has crafted a table showing the frequency of responses to the physical, chemical and biological and even the risk of accidents and was made a descriptive analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that the unit in question presents several problems ambience of jobs, both in terms of physical structure, but also in the organization of work. Non-conformities that leads to a favourable environment to the development of disease and injury hazards and compromising the quality of food produced. It is necessary to comply with legislation and that short, medium and long-term measures are taken to ensure the physical integrity of workers and improve the working environment.

Quedas em idosos assistidos na estratégia saúde da família: frequência e fatores associados

The growth of the elderly population is a global phenomenon and, in Brazil, this transformation is happening in a very rapid rhythm. With the current population aging, this emerging age group will need more health care and attention. One of the characteristics of the population aging is the progressive accumulation of disabilities, which makes it more vulnerable to falls. This study was developed with the purpose of knowing the episode falls in the scope of an elderly population treated at a Family Health Unit. It is a research with cross-sectional nature, and its sample was composed by 121 elderly. The research was approved by the Ethics Committee of HUOL, with Opinion nº 816.022. We applied a questionnaire to the participants, and the results were statistically analyzed by using Chi-square test and Fisher’s exact test to verify the association between variables. In order to perform a multivariate analysis, we used the method of the Binomial Logistic Regression. For both tests, we accepted significance p<0,05 and CI of 95%. The results prove that the majority belongs to the female gender (76,9%); the age group of elderly reaches 88,4% and 11,6% is over-aged; regarding the marital status, 35,3% are married and 29,4% widowed; 92,1% with family income between one and two minimum wages; and 91,8% live with their partners and/or children. Regarding the frequency of falls, we found that 61,2% of the surveyed elderly suffered one or more falls in 2014. As associated factors, it became clear that 73,8% were due to extrinsic factors, 6,4% to intrinsic factors and 21,4% to both factors. As a consequence of the fall, we found that 89,2% have fear of falling again, 37,3% showed anxiety and 13,3% had their ambulation affected. Concerning the exposure to the risk factors, the most prevalent places were: street/avenue (31,0%), pavement (19,0%), living room (14,3%) and courtyard/backyard (10,7%). The study has proven a statistically significant association among female gender (p=0,001), rubble/objects in the backyard (p=0,015) and furniture that may cause accidents (p=0,005). It was evident among the elderly people surveyed, 72.7% receive little information about falls, being a risk factor for falls. We conclude that there is a high frequency of falls in the surveyed elderly, thereby constituting a worrisome data because this event in the elderly population is a serious matter, which raises the need to ensure them a safe environment in their homes and, above all, outside them. The information provided by the Family Health Strategy team are important to avoid these occurrences, which reinforces the need for developing health education activities together with the population as a way to prevent and reduce the occurrence of falls, thereby improving the quality of life of elderly.

Nanopartículas catiônicas de poli (ácido lático) para liberação modificada de peptídios da peçonha do escorpião Tityus serrulatus

Reported accidents involving the poisoning scorpions are still frequent in Brazil, mainly caused by Tityus serrulatus, known as yellow scorpion. Although antivenom sera are produced routinely by various government laboratories, the effectiveness of its use depends on how quickly treatment is initiated and efficiency in the production of antibodies by the immunized animals. In this study, the development of cationic polymeric nanoparticles of poly(lactic acid) aimed to create a modified delivery system for peptides and proteins of T. serrulatus venom, able to enhance the production of serum antibodies against the scorpion toxins. The cationic nanoparticles were obtained by a low energy nanoprecipitation, after study of the parameters’ variations effects over the physicochemical properties of the particles. The surface functionalization of the nanoparticles with the hyperbranched polyethyleneimine was proved by zeta potential analysis and enabled the adsorption by electrostatic interaction of different types of proteins. The protein loading efficiency of 40-80 % to bovine serum albumin (BSA) and 100 % to scorpion venom peptides evaluated by spectrophotometry and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis confirmed the success of the selected parameters established for obtainment of nanoparticles, produced with size between 100 to 250 nm. The atomic force microscopy analysis and in vitro release showed that the spherical nanoparticles provided a sustained release profile of proteins by diffusion mechanism, demonstrating the potential for application of the nanoparticles in vivo.

Nanopartículas catiônicas de poli (ácido lático) para liberação modificada de peptídios da peçonha do escorpião Tityus serrulatus

Reported accidents involving the poisoning scorpions are still frequent in Brazil, mainly caused by Tityus serrulatus, known as yellow scorpion. Although antivenom sera are produced routinely by various government laboratories, the effectiveness of its use depends on how quickly treatment is initiated and efficiency in the production of antibodies by the immunized animals. In this study, the development of cationic polymeric nanoparticles of poly(lactic acid) aimed to create a modified delivery system for peptides and proteins of T. serrulatus venom, able to enhance the production of serum antibodies against the scorpion toxins. The cationic nanoparticles were obtained by a low energy nanoprecipitation, after study of the parameters’ variations effects over the physicochemical properties of the particles. The surface functionalization of the nanoparticles with the hyperbranched polyethyleneimine was proved by zeta potential analysis and enabled the adsorption by electrostatic interaction of different types of proteins. The protein loading efficiency of 40-80 % to bovine serum albumin (BSA) and 100 % to scorpion venom peptides evaluated by spectrophotometry and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis confirmed the success of the selected parameters established for obtainment of nanoparticles, produced with size between 100 to 250 nm. The atomic force microscopy analysis and in vitro release showed that the spherical nanoparticles provided a sustained release profile of proteins by diffusion mechanism, demonstrating the potential for application of the nanoparticles in vivo.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Inibição dos efeitos locais induzidos pelas peçonhas das serpentes Bothrops erythromelas e Bothrops jararaca pelo extrato aquoso das folhas de Jatropha mollissima (Pohl) Bail

Snakebites are a serious public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries and Bothrops genus is responsible for the accidents in Brazil and throughout Latin America (90% of cases). The local effects (pain, edema, hemorrhage and myonecrosis) and systemic (cardiovascular alterations, shock and blood clotting disorders) caused by the venom of Bothrops are due to the numerous protein and non-protein components, which are part of the constitution of the poison. The only form of therapy is scientifically validated antivenom serum therapy which, however, is not effective with respect to local effects produced, risk of immunological reactions, high cost and difficult access in some regions. Thus, the search for new alternatives to serum therapy becomes important, and in this context, many medicinal plants have been highlighted by the popular use as antiophidic. Among these plants, we can mention the species Jatropha mollissima (Euphorbiaceae) which has popular use in traditional medicine as antiophidic, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial and antipyretic. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the neutralizing potential of local effects induced by the venom of Bothrops erythromelas and Bothrops jararaca with the aqueous extract of the leaves of J. mollissima. The leaf extracts were prepared by decoction, fractionated (by liquid-liquid partition) and characterized by thin layer chromatography (TLC) and High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). Antiophidic activity of the extract was evaluated in model of paw edema, peritonitis, bleeding and myotoxicity induced by venoms of B. jararaca and B. erythromelas. In all models, the extract was evaluated by intraperitoneal route at the doses of 50, 100 and 200 mg/kg, administered 30 minutes prior to injection of the venom (pretreatment protocol). Stains suggestive of the presence of flavonoids: apigenin, luteolin, orientin, isoorientin, vitexin and vitexin-2-O-rhamnoside were detected in the extract by co-CCD. By means of HPLC were identified isoorientin, orientin, vitexin and isovitexin. All tested doses of J. mollissima extract reduced the paw edema induced by the venom with intensity similar to dexamethasone. The aqueous extract of J. mollissima leaves on all evaluated doses, inhibited cell migration induced by B. jararaca and B. erythromelas promoting inhibition of recruitment of mononuclear cells and the polymorphonuclear cells. Local bleeding induced by B. jararaca venom was significantly inhibited by the extract. Both venoms were inhibited by the extract in myotoxic activity. These results indicate that the aqueous extract of J. mollissima leaves have snakebite potential, particularly with respect to local effects, which may justify the use of this plant in traditional medicine and complementary therapy as anti-venom serum.