120 resultados para probabilidade de ruína
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Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth. is a forest species of the Mimosaceae family, recommended for recovery of degraded areas. The evaluation of vigor by biochemical tests have been an important tool in the control of seed quality programs, and the electrical conductivity and potassium leaching the most efficient in the verifying the physiological potential. The objective, therefore, to adjust the methodology of the electrical conductivity test for seeds of M. caesalpiniaefolia, for then compare the efficiency of this test with the potassium in the evaluation of seed vigor of different lots of seeds M. caesalpiniaefolia. To test the adequacy of the electrical conductivity were used different combinations of temperatures , 25 °C and 30 ºC, number of seeds , 25 and 50, periods of imbibition , 4 , 8 , 12 , 16 and 24 hours , and volumes deionized water, 50 mL and 75mL. For potassium leaching test, which was conducted from the results achieved by the methodology of the adequacy of the electrical conductivity test, to compare the efficiency of both tests , in the classification of seeds at different levels of vigor, and the period 4 hours also evaluated because the potassium leaching test can be more efficient in the shortest time . The best combination obtained in experiment of electrical conductivity is 25 seeds soaked in 50 mL deionized or distilled water for 8 hours at a temperature of 30 ° C. Data were subjected to analysis of variance, the means were compared with each other by F tests and Tukey at 5 % probability, and when necessary polynomial regression analysis was performed. The electrical conductivity test performed at period eight hour proved to be more efficient in the separation of seed lots M. caesalpiniaefolia at different levels of vigor compared to the potassium test
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The present dissertation, elaborated is based on the deductive method, through the use of the General Theory of Resources concepts, by the main types of judgments existing in the Code of Civil Procedure, the interlocutory judgment and sentence, as well as the features and effects that challenge these decisions, we sought to identify on this theme one of the greatest evils facing the justice system in the world, which is the processing delays. This slowness in adjudication affects seriously the principle of effectiveness, one of the postulates of procedural law and society as a whole. Thus, the use of tort serves to fight the interlocutory decision and appeal which challenges the judge`s ruling. It is a resource for excellence in appellate system as it meets with the most awaited decision of the process. In weighing the importance of the appeal that seeks to oppose the court decision today by the numerous reforms that the procedural system has been through, it has ended up to transform the process ineffective or inconsistent, for it is much easier to have efficacy in a interlocutory decision for preliminary injunction than by judgment on the merits of the judge. This is due to the prevision of the resources and their effect to those decisions. That is, the interlocutory decision involves interlocutory appeal only in the devolved effect, allowing its provisional execution, and the sentence has as recourse to appeal the double effect, remanding and suspension, which necessarily prevents its provisional execution. But it undeniably shows a paradox, because as to give effect to a measure that is based on a mere probability by a summary cognition, partial and superficial, and stop it on a decision by a court that is closer to the truth and sure, for a full and depleting cognition? It is seriously affect the principle of effectiveness. Therefore, starting from this ineffectiveness, sought to defend the solution of this problem with the approval of the bill n. º 3.605/2004 or the new Code of Civil Procedure project that modifies the general rule the effects of appeal. That is, remanding and suspensive, as to merely remanding effect to and thereby enable the provisional execution of the judgment of the court of the first degree of jurisdiction, giving effectiveness and enhancing the decision of the magistrate, making a fair distribution of time in the process and better guaranteed principle of access to justice
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High levels of local, regional, and global extinctions has progressively simplified communities in terms of both species and ecosystem functioning. Theoretical models demonstrated that the degree of functional redundancy determines the rates of functional group loss in response to species extinctions. Here, we improve the theoretical predictions by incorporating in the model interactions between species and between functional groups. In this study, we tested the effect of different scenarios of interspecific interactions and effects between functional groups on the resistance to loss of community functional groups. Virtual communities have been built with different distribution patterns of species in functional groups, both with high and low evenness. A matrix A was created to represent the net effect of interspecific interactions among all species, representing nesting patterns, modularity, sensitive species, and dominant species. Moreover, a second matrix B was created to represent the interactions between functional groups, also exhibiting different patterns. The extinction probability of each species was calculated based on community species richness and by the intensity of the interspecific interactions that act upon it and group to which it belongs. In the model, successive extinctions decrease the community species richness, the degree of functional redundancy and, consequently, the number of functional groups that remain in the system. For each scenario of functional redundancy, A, and B, we ran 1000 simulations to generate an average functional extinction curve. Different model assumptions were able to generate remarkable variation on functional extinction curves. More extreme variations occurred when the matrix A and B caused a higher heterogeneity in the species extinction probability. Scenarios with sensitive species, positive or negative, showed a greater variation than the scenarios with dominant species. Nested interactions showed greater variation than scenarios where the interactions were in modules. Communities with maximal functional evenness can only be destabilized by the interactions between species and functional groups. In contrast, communities with low functional evenness can have its resistance either increased or decreased by the interactions. The concentration of positive interactions in low redundancy groups or negative interactions in high redundancy groups was able to decrease the functional extinction rates. In contrast, the concentration of negative interactions in low redundancy groups or positive interactions in high redundancy groups was able to increase the functional extinction rates. This model shows results that are relevant for species priorization in ecosystem conservation and restoration
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
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Family farming has been considered as the new axis of rural development in the country, the focus of several public policies, especially the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture - PRONAF and Food Purchase Program - PAA. PRONAF was created with the aim of providing credit to farmers, while the PAA to support family farmers through the purchase of its production. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the correspondence of these two public policies for family farming, in the Territories of Citizenship of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 2008 to 2010. In the methodology, the analysis was performed by comparing the distributions of the two programs in the territories of citizenship status. There were also statistical tests of differences in proportions, and Spearman correlations, and estimated a logit regression model, in order to measure the probability of a farmer participating in the PAA is associated with one of the modes of PRONAF. The data used were obtained from the National and Supply - CONAB at the Institute of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension - EMATER, and the Ministry of Agrarian Development - MDA. Among the key findings was noted that policies were associated with a direct, but low in the districts of the Territories of Citizenship. And that, in the years 2008 and 2009, only in the territories of Mato Grande, Alto Oeste and Seridó, the actions of PAA and PRONAF had direct and significant correlations. It was found that in most of the territories, policies are performed randomly, ie that both have no correlation to each other. The estimates of the logit model showed that the chance of a family farmer, the PAA participant, receive credits PRONAF A, is higher in the territory of Mato Grande, and would have a chance to fall in PRONAF B in all areas surveyed. Moreover, farmers in the territories of the Assu-Mossoró, Sertão of Apodi, Seridó and Alto Oeste, participating in the PAA would be more likely to receive credits PRONAF C, reflecting thus the family farm more consolidated these territories
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This study aims to the evaluate the determinants for rural households northeastern be pluriactive, in 2011. For this, at first, we conducted a review of national and international literature in order to get beyond the theoretical part which refers to the study of pluriactivity identify possible determinants of the phenomenon. In this rescue, it was the observed determinants could be macroeconomic in nature and / or microeconomics. Therefore, it became necessary to describe the characteristics of the region under study, the Northeast. In order to identify the determinants were two estimated Probit models, one based on the literature review and the second with a variable characteristic of the Northeast, the transfers. For this, we used the PNAD in 2011. The results indicate both the microeconomic determinants are : gender, race, age, years of education, hours worked, number of family members, per capita income, transfer the macroeconomic in nature: living conditions (water, energy, sanitation ), housing location. In addition to identifying the determinants, the Econometric model allows to know the probability of each variable on the dependent variable, which stood out: the transfer variable, gender, per capita income, number of family members, housing conditions and housing location. Therefore, it is concluded that it is the set of determinants (macro and micro) allow rural families become northeastern pluriactive. However, one can not fail to consider may also have other determinants were not captured due to the availability of data, which may be indications for future studies. In summary, the pluriactivity in the Brazilian Northeast is a phenomenon distinct from found in Europe and southern Brazil. It is a pluriactivity survival that is part of the strategies of rural households in the Northeast to ensure their social reproduction amid the poverty of the region
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The aim of this work is the numerical simulation of the mechanical performance of concrete affected by Alkali-Aggregate Reaction or RAA, reported by Stanton in 1940. The RAA has aroused attention in the context of Civil Engineering from the early 80, when they were reported consequences of his swelling effect in concrete structures, including cracking, failure and loss of serviceability. Despite the availability of experimental results the problem formulation still lacks refinement so that your solution remains doubtful. The numerical simulation is important resource for the assessment of damages in structures caused by the reaction, and their recoveries The tasks of support of this work were performed by means of the finite element approach, about orthotropic non-linear formulation, and, thermodynamic model of deformation by RAA. The results obtained revealed that the swelling effect of RAA induced decline of the mechanical performance of concrete by decreasing the margin of safety prior to the material failure. They showed that the temperature influences, exclusively, the kinetics of the reaction, so that the failure was the more precocious the higher the temperature of the solid mass of concrete
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The process of urbanization in recent decades has generated considerable seriousness of problems relating to the use and occupation physical environment of cities. The concentration of population, economic activities and technological standards have reinforced an existing urban environment highly degraded as a consequence of the development style that leads to the predatory use of natural resources. In this context, cities as centers of production and consumption, have the most serious problems of environmental degradation. This study investigated the impacts of the municipal building projects to large-scale vertical in the town of Vila de Ponta Negra, Natal-RN, given the proximity to the Environmental Protection Area (ZPA-6) and considering its environmental importance , scenic, landscape and tourism for the city of Natal-RN. The fragility of the licensing process and the failure of the assumptions in the analysis, objective and subjective, for the granting of environmental permits for the building construction projects, specifically those set out in the surroundings of the Environmental Protection Area (ZPA-6) and fundamental importance of landscape and tourism for the city of Natal, has aroused the concern of local people in and of itself the Government, faced with the probable impacts that will affect greatly the Vila de Ponta Negra. The methodology used to achieve the intended objectives will be the literature review, questionnaire to the surrounding population and the Government, as well as findings on the spot, through the photographic record. The beneficiaries of the license, if the entrepreneurs, have been affected because of the granting of licensing act of investing large amount of capital in the works. Additionally, with distrust of the population, since they are to discredit the public system of environmental management have guessed by the probability of imbalance to the environment and structural damage to the Vila de Ponta Negra, where such failure to support energy, lack of regular supply of water , lack of sanitation and access roads sufficient for the flow of motor vehicles in these areas, among other factors. Thus, this work will contribute to the diagnosis and solutions to the problem in question, so that the Government will effectively fulfill its social management of ecologically balanced environment of continuing urban development in Natal, Brazil
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The work objective was to investigate the influence of social practices social in the choise decision of a tourist destination. For in such a way, a survey with the aid of a questionnaire, was used as being the research instrument. The study used a simple random sample without replacement, due to elements of the population had a equal probability different of zero, to be selected for forming part of the sample. The used collection method of data was personal interview. The data was collected at Augusto Severo International Airport at the moment in which tourists were embarking in return to the residence place or another tourist destination. For determination of sample size, it was considered the tourist who had visited Natal in November and December, 2004, supplied by the Secretariat of Tourism in the RN. The sample for the research was of 403 people. Results showed that the interviewed express the existence of high level of competitiveness in the tourism industry. It was observed that 42.5% of the interviewed believes to exist a very aggressive competition, and 47.5% believed that the competition is aggressive in the tourism industry. 10.4% of the interviewed expressed much interest in knowing about social practices in the tourism industry and 2.8% had not presented any interest in knowing about social practices in the tourism industry. For the interviewed, the travel agency image is a significant item in the choice for a tourist package, because of 35.6% believed that this factor is very important in the choice. 5% of the interviewed only find that little important or that sometimes the travel agency image can be seen as s decisive factor in the tourist package choice
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The problems of combinatory optimization have involved a large number of researchers in search of approximative solutions for them, since it is generally accepted that they are unsolvable in polynomial time. Initially, these solutions were focused on heuristics. Currently, metaheuristics are used more for this task, especially those based on evolutionary algorithms. The two main contributions of this work are: the creation of what is called an -Operon- heuristic, for the construction of the information chains necessary for the implementation of transgenetic (evolutionary) algorithms, mainly using statistical methodology - the Cluster Analysis and the Principal Component Analysis; and the utilization of statistical analyses that are adequate for the evaluation of the performance of the algorithms that are developed to solve these problems. The aim of the Operon is to construct good quality dynamic information chains to promote an -intelligent- search in the space of solutions. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is intended for applications based on a transgenetic algorithmic known as ProtoG. A strategy is also proposed for the renovation of part of the chromosome population indicated by adopting a minimum limit in the coefficient of variation of the adequation function of the individuals, with calculations based on the population. Statistical methodology is used for the evaluation of the performance of four algorithms, as follows: the proposed ProtoG, two memetic algorithms and a Simulated Annealing algorithm. Three performance analyses of these algorithms are proposed. The first is accomplished through the Logistic Regression, based on the probability of finding an optimal solution for a TSP instance by the algorithm being tested. The second is accomplished through Survival Analysis, based on a probability of the time observed for its execution until an optimal solution is achieved. The third is accomplished by means of a non-parametric Analysis of Variance, considering the Percent Error of the Solution (PES) obtained by the percentage in which the solution found exceeds the best solution available in the literature. Six experiments have been conducted applied to sixty-one instances of Euclidean TSP with sizes of up to 1,655 cities. The first two experiments deal with the adjustments of four parameters used in the ProtoG algorithm in an attempt to improve its performance. The last four have been undertaken to evaluate the performance of the ProtoG in comparison to the three algorithms adopted. For these sixty-one instances, it has been concluded on the grounds of statistical tests that there is evidence that the ProtoG performs better than these three algorithms in fifty instances. In addition, for the thirty-six instances considered in the last three trials in which the performance of the algorithms was evaluated through PES, it was observed that the PES average obtained with the ProtoG was less than 1% in almost half of these instances, having reached the greatest average for one instance of 1,173 cities, with an PES average equal to 3.52%. Therefore, the ProtoG can be considered a competitive algorithm for solving the TSP, since it is not rare in the literature find PESs averages greater than 10% to be reported for instances of this size.
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This work introduces a new method for environment mapping with three-dimensional information from visual information for robotic accurate navigation. Many approaches of 3D mapping using occupancy grid typically requires high computacional effort to both build and store the map. We introduce an 2.5-D occupancy-elevation grid mapping, which is a discrete mapping approach, where each cell stores the occupancy probability, the height of the terrain at current place in the environment and the variance of this height. This 2.5-dimensional representation allows that a mobile robot to know whether a place in the environment is occupied by an obstacle and the height of this obstacle, thus, it can decide if is possible to traverse the obstacle. Sensorial informations necessary to construct the map is provided by a stereo vision system, which has been modeled with a robust probabilistic approach, considering the noise present in the stereo processing. The resulting maps favors the execution of tasks like decision making in the autonomous navigation, exploration, localization and path planning. Experiments carried out with a real mobile robots demonstrates that this proposed approach yields useful maps for robot autonomous navigation
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In this work, we propose a probabilistic mapping method with the mapped environment represented through a modified occupancy grid. The main idea of the proposed method is to allow a mobile robot to construct in a systematic and incremental way the geometry of the underlying space, obtaining at the end a complete environment map. As a consequence, the robot can move in the environment in a safe way, based on a confidence value of data obtained from its perceptive system. The map is represented in a coherent way, according to its sensory data, being these noisy or not, that comes from exterior and proprioceptive sensors of the robot. Characteristic noise incorporated in the data from these sensors are treated by probabilistic modeling in such a way that their effects can be visible in the final result of the mapping process. The results of performed experiments indicate the viability of the methodology and its applicability in the area of autonomous mobile robotics, thus being an contribution to the field
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The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability
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Currently, one of the biggest challenges for the field of data mining is to perform cluster analysis on complex data. Several techniques have been proposed but, in general, they can only achieve good results within specific areas providing no consensus of what would be the best way to group this kind of data. In general, these techniques fail due to non-realistic assumptions about the true probability distribution of the data. Based on this, this thesis proposes a new measure based on Cross Information Potential that uses representative points of the dataset and statistics extracted directly from data to measure the interaction between groups. The proposed approach allows us to use all advantages of this information-theoretic descriptor and solves the limitations imposed on it by its own nature. From this, two cost functions and three algorithms have been proposed to perform cluster analysis. As the use of Information Theory captures the relationship between different patterns, regardless of assumptions about the nature of this relationship, the proposed approach was able to achieve a better performance than the main algorithms in literature. These results apply to the context of synthetic data designed to test the algorithms in specific situations and to real data extracted from problems of different fields