Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

Análise da influência do efeito esteira de aerogeradores no microclima na superfície do solo: o caso do parque eólico piloto de Macau/RN

This study aimed to evaluate the microclimate changes surrounding the wind farm Macau Pilot / RN, present in the municipality of the same name. To achieve this goal made use of remote sensing techniques using Landsat - 5 TM and 7 ETM +, from which made it possible evaluation of temperature changes on the surface, this around the park in periods prior to its implementation, to the today. For evaluation of the temperature data that has been generated by applying a template was performed its correlation with field data collection and evaluated the degree of correlation, in order to confirm the validity of the data acquired by satellite. Also held was a characterization of the climate of the region based on the data of this climatological station in Macau. Once collected this data made possible the evaluation of climate change policy in the study region. After validation of the temperature models, an analysis of the generated temperature histograms was performed visually could not identify any significant change. However when analyzing the temperature data at a higher level of detail, a data pattern of behavior was detected for both periods evaluated, yet could not see a distinction between the periods of pre-operation of the park, and post-operation . From this result was levantas hypotheses to explain the behavior of the data, the first of which is the presence of moisture in the soil, and the second to the soil composition. In order to validate the hypotheses were applied PDI techniques, involving a combination of different RGB bands of Landsat 5 and the implementation of Reason bands procedure that might show the elements present on the soil surface.

Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.

Análise de microestrutura e de características geotécnicas de misturas de resíduo de polimento de porcelanato e solo

Brazil is a country in development, rich in natural resources. In order to grow sustainably, it is necessary to Brazil to preserve its environment, which is an expressive challenge, especially to industries, such as those producing ceramic materials. This study was developed using Porcelain Tile Polishing Residue (RPP) in blends with soil to build compacted fills. This residue is a slurry generated during the polishing process of porcelain tiles and contains powdery material from the polished tile, the abrasives used during the process and cooling water. The RPP was collected from a private company located in Conde/PB and it was mixed with a sandy-clayey soil, to build the fills. Laboratorial tests were conducted with pure soil, pure RPP and blends in proportions of 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of RPP in addition to the dry mass of pure soil. The Chemical and Physical Characterization tests performed were: specific solid weight, grain size distribution, laser analysis of grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, X ray fluorescence, X ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and soil compaction,. The materials and blends were also compacted and direct shear tests and plate load tests were performed. Plate load tests were conducted using a circular plate with 30 cm diameter, on specimens of pure soil and 5% blend, compacted in a metallic box inside the Soil Mechanics Laboratory of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Both mechanical tests performed were conducted under inundated conditions, willing to reduce the influence of soil suction. An evaluation of the results of the tests performed shows that RPP is a fine material, with grain size distribution smaller than 0,015mm, composed mainly of silica and alumina, and particles in angular shape. The soil was characterized as a clayey sand, geologically known as a lateritic soil, with high percentages of alumina and iron oxide, and particles with rounded shape. Both the Soil and the blends presented low plasticity, while the residue showed a medium plasticity. Direct shear tests showed that the addition of RPP did not cause major changes into blends’ friction angle data, however, it was possible to note that, for the proportions studied, that is a tendency of obtain lower shear stresses for higher percentages of RPP in the blends. Both pure soil and 5% mixture showed a punching disruption for the Plate load test. For this same test, the allowable stress for 5% mixture was 44% higher than the pure soil, and smaller vertical settlement results for all stresses.

Análise de microestrutura e de características geotécnicas de misturas de resíduo de polimento de porcelanato e solo

Brazil is a country in development, rich in natural resources. In order to grow sustainably, it is necessary to Brazil to preserve its environment, which is an expressive challenge, especially to industries, such as those producing ceramic materials. This study was developed using Porcelain Tile Polishing Residue (RPP) in blends with soil to build compacted fills. This residue is a slurry generated during the polishing process of porcelain tiles and contains powdery material from the polished tile, the abrasives used during the process and cooling water. The RPP was collected from a private company located in Conde/PB and it was mixed with a sandy-clayey soil, to build the fills. Laboratorial tests were conducted with pure soil, pure RPP and blends in proportions of 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% of RPP in addition to the dry mass of pure soil. The Chemical and Physical Characterization tests performed were: specific solid weight, grain size distribution, laser analysis of grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, X ray fluorescence, X ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and soil compaction,. The materials and blends were also compacted and direct shear tests and plate load tests were performed. Plate load tests were conducted using a circular plate with 30 cm diameter, on specimens of pure soil and 5% blend, compacted in a metallic box inside the Soil Mechanics Laboratory of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. Both mechanical tests performed were conducted under inundated conditions, willing to reduce the influence of soil suction. An evaluation of the results of the tests performed shows that RPP is a fine material, with grain size distribution smaller than 0,015mm, composed mainly of silica and alumina, and particles in angular shape. The soil was characterized as a clayey sand, geologically known as a lateritic soil, with high percentages of alumina and iron oxide, and particles with rounded shape. Both the Soil and the blends presented low plasticity, while the residue showed a medium plasticity. Direct shear tests showed that the addition of RPP did not cause major changes into blends’ friction angle data, however, it was possible to note that, for the proportions studied, that is a tendency of obtain lower shear stresses for higher percentages of RPP in the blends. Both pure soil and 5% mixture showed a punching disruption for the Plate load test. For this same test, the allowable stress for 5% mixture was 44% higher than the pure soil, and smaller vertical settlement results for all stresses.

Análise fractal da vasculatura retínica: métodos de segmentação e de cálculo dimensional

Embora tenha sido proposto que a vasculatura retínica apresenta estrutura fractal, nenhuma padronização do método de segmentação ou do método de cálculo das dimensões fractais foi realizada. Este estudo objetivou determinar se a estimação das dimensões fractais da vasculatura retínica é dependente dos métodos de segmentação vascular e dos métodos de cálculo de dimensão. Métodos: Dez imagens retinográficas foram segmentadas para extrair suas árvores vasculares por quatro métodos computacionais (“multithreshold”, “scale-space”, “pixel classification” e “ridge based detection”). Suas dimensões fractais de “informação”, de “massa-raio” e “por contagem de caixas” foram então calculadas e comparadas com as dimensões das mesmas árvores vasculares, quando obtidas pela segmentação manual (padrão áureo). Resultados: As médias das dimensões fractais variaram através dos grupos de diferentes métodos de segmentação, de 1,39 a 1,47 para a dimensão por contagem de caixas, de 1,47 a 1,52 para a dimensão de informação e de 1,48 a 1,57 para a dimensão de massa-raio. A utilização de diferentes métodos computacionais de segmentação vascular, bem como de diferentes métodos de cálculo de dimensão, introduziu diferença estatisticamente significativa nos valores das dimensões fractais das árvores vasculares. Conclusão: A estimação das dimensões fractais da vasculatura retínica foi dependente tanto dos métodos de segmentação vascular, quanto dos métodos de cálculo de dimensão utilizados

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Análise de métodos para aplicação de ventilação natural em projetos de edificações em Natal-RN

Natural ventilation is an efficient bioclimatic strategy, one that provides thermal comfort, healthful and cooling to the edification. However, the disregard for quality environment, the uncertainties involved in the phenomenon and the popularization of artificial climate systems are held as an excuse for those who neglect the benefits of passive cooling. The unfamiliarity with the concept may be lessened if ventilation is observed in every step of the project, especially in the initial phase in which decisions bear a great impact in the construction process. The tools available in order to quantify the impact of projected decisions consist basically of the renovation rate calculations or computer simulations of fluids, commonly dubbed CFD, which stands for Computational Fluid Dynamics , both somewhat apart from the project s execution and unable to adapt for use in parametric studies. Thus, we chose to verify, through computer simulation, the representativeness of the results with a method of simplified air reconditioning rate calculation, as well as making it more compatible with the questions relevant to the first phases of the project s process. The case object consists of a model resulting from the recommendations of the Código de Obras de Natal/ RN, customized according to the NBR 15220. The study has shown the complexity in aggregating a CFD tool to the process and the need for a method capable of generating data at the compatible rate to the flow of ideas and are discarded during the project s development. At the end of our study, we discuss the necessary concessions for the realization of simulations, the applicability and the limitations of both the tools used and the method adopted, as well as the representativeness of the results obtained

Análise de métodos de predição de conforto térmico de habitação em clima quente-úmido com condicionamento passivo

The assessment of building thermal performance is often carried out using HVAC energy consumption data, when available, or thermal comfort variables measurements, for free-running buildings. Both types of data can be determined by monitoring or computer simulation. The assessment based on thermal comfort variables is the most complex because it depends on the determination of the thermal comfort zone. For these reasons, this master thesis explores methods of building thermal performance assessment using variables of thermal comfort simulated by DesignBuilder software. The main objective is to contribute to the development of methods to support architectural decisions during the design process, and energy and sustainable rating systems. The research method consists on selecting thermal comfort methods, modeling them in electronic sheets with output charts developed to optimize the analyses, which are used to assess the simulation results of low cost house configurations. The house models consist in a base case, which are already built, and changes in thermal transmittance, absorptance, and shading. The simulation results are assessed using each thermal comfort method, to identify the sensitivity of them. The final results show the limitations of the methods, the importance of a method that considers thermal radiance and wind speed, and the contribution of the chart proposed

Análise e avaliação dos elementos de penetração no solo de equipamentos rodoviários após revestimento

The main objective is to analyze the abrasive wear resistance to the low stress of the elements that make up the organs of road machinery that are exposed directly to contact with abrasives. These samples were analyzed after these elements are coated superficially by the process of welding electrode coated with (SAER) and the manual process of coating type LVOF thermal spraying. As well, is to provide suggestions for a better recovery and return of these elements, which are reducing costs and avoiding downtime in the fronts of service. The samples were made from a substrate of carbon ABNT 1045 tempered steel, following the same specifications and composition of metals and alloys of constituents was followed the standard governing the dimensions of these samples and in accordance with the corresponding size. The results were evaluated by testing the hardness, abrasion resistance to wear by the low stress and the loss of volume involving the microstructure of coatings analyzed