126 resultados para Probabilidade Implícita


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Family farming has been considered as the new axis of rural development in the country, the focus of several public policies, especially the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture - PRONAF and Food Purchase Program - PAA. PRONAF was created with the aim of providing credit to farmers, while the PAA to support family farmers through the purchase of its production. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the correspondence of these two public policies for family farming, in the Territories of Citizenship of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 2008 to 2010. In the methodology, the analysis was performed by comparing the distributions of the two programs in the territories of citizenship status. There were also statistical tests of differences in proportions, and Spearman correlations, and estimated a logit regression model, in order to measure the probability of a farmer participating in the PAA is associated with one of the modes of PRONAF. The data used were obtained from the National and Supply - CONAB at the Institute of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension - EMATER, and the Ministry of Agrarian Development - MDA. Among the key findings was noted that policies were associated with a direct, but low in the districts of the Territories of Citizenship. And that, in the years 2008 and 2009, only in the territories of Mato Grande, Alto Oeste and Seridó, the actions of PAA and PRONAF had direct and significant correlations. It was found that in most of the territories, policies are performed randomly, ie that both have no correlation to each other. The estimates of the logit model showed that the chance of a family farmer, the PAA participant, receive credits PRONAF A, is higher in the territory of Mato Grande, and would have a chance to fall in PRONAF B in all areas surveyed. Moreover, farmers in the territories of the Assu-Mossoró, Sertão of Apodi, Seridó and Alto Oeste, participating in the PAA would be more likely to receive credits PRONAF C, reflecting thus the family farm more consolidated these territories

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This study aims to the evaluate the determinants for rural households northeastern be pluriactive, in 2011. For this, at first, we conducted a review of national and international literature in order to get beyond the theoretical part which refers to the study of pluriactivity identify possible determinants of the phenomenon. In this rescue, it was the observed determinants could be macroeconomic in nature and / or microeconomics. Therefore, it became necessary to describe the characteristics of the region under study, the Northeast. In order to identify the determinants were two estimated Probit models, one based on the literature review and the second with a variable characteristic of the Northeast, the transfers. For this, we used the PNAD in 2011. The results indicate both the microeconomic determinants are : gender, race, age, years of education, hours worked, number of family members, per capita income, transfer the macroeconomic in nature: living conditions (water, energy, sanitation ), housing location. In addition to identifying the determinants, the Econometric model allows to know the probability of each variable on the dependent variable, which stood out: the transfer variable, gender, per capita income, number of family members, housing conditions and housing location. Therefore, it is concluded that it is the set of determinants (macro and micro) allow rural families become northeastern pluriactive. However, one can not fail to consider may also have other determinants were not captured due to the availability of data, which may be indications for future studies. In summary, the pluriactivity in the Brazilian Northeast is a phenomenon distinct from found in Europe and southern Brazil. It is a pluriactivity survival that is part of the strategies of rural households in the Northeast to ensure their social reproduction amid the poverty of the region

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This study - Biologist s formative speech about death. Nuances and metaphors from knowing that the subject of do not want to know - shows a marginal cognitive construction in scientific education from biologist - death. It considered as obvious that death is a theme that covers both the scientific education from biologist and the division of the subject, and concerns the splitting of the double life-death and the principles of inclusion and exclusion of the subject. Part of sensitive question: What is the epistemological weave who supports biologist's speech about death? It is constituted an object of study of the biologist s speech on death. It is advocated the thesis that: Death is an epistemological obstacle announcing for something always aims to escape from the perspective of knowledge, especially of scientific knowledge because, since it is understood as cognitive learning about the disruption of biological phenomenon life which is involved on weave of imaginary and symbolic constructions about the finiteness of life; it has constituted a metaphorical knowing - encouraged by the noisy silence - which does not allow to know in full, mobilizing hence subject in searching for transitional truths that reduce the ontological being-mortal anguish centered in subjective dimension involved in the act of knowing. From this movement of search that the object mental life after death wins a symbolic value that requires a real-looking multi-referential for the study of biology - life - and its implications: the finiteness of life, especially by moving the omnipotence of scientific objectivity expressed by signs and symbols that seek say the completeness of scientific knowledge-, signaling thus the existence of the dynamics of incompleteness implicit in subjectivity that supports knowledge relating to the double, life and death, and to the temporality of the existence of Homo sapiens sapiens, with the axis guiding the desire of the subject, do not want to know about death, implicit in the mechanisms objective-subjective founded by non-said of death is the epistemology of the existence of objective-subjective subject, whose core is the negation of death. The theoretical methodological knowing web is anchored in the multi-reference which favors a transit by theoretical current, as the Psychoanalysis, bachelardian philosophy, the epistemology of complexity, the Thanatology, the Social Psychology, and Etnocenology, and Understanding Interview. The unveiling of the study object from the analysis of oral speech of eleven biologists who serve in high school, from three main guiding: Death in the history of life,Death in biologist s academic education and, Conceptions about concepts

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This thesis is the result of a piece of research on hospitality social representations between tourism professionals and academics in the city of Natal. The reasearch s corner stone is the point of the view that the notion of hospitality, with all its theoretical and practical implications, is essential to the success of any tourist destination. Is there any relevance in the growing use of the word, almost as a synonym for tourism? How is this notion, first learned in the domestic context and then exercised in the contact with the city and especially with visitors, represented in the learning process for professional practice and in the exercise of professional tourist reception itself? In order to answer this question, initially we chose to study the concept of hospitality in their current academic view, with reference to the French school, which binds hospitality to the maussian perspective of donation, and other scholars of the current theme, with emphasis on the research performed in the program of Master of Hospitality at the Anhembi Morumbi University, whose philosophy imprints in the hospitality concept the same sense we want to give this study. Then we chose to analyze the notion of hospitality, by the Social Representations Theory, in light of Moscovici s methodology, as well as the analysis of the core of this concept among tourism professionals and students. It was found that hospitality is still a very diffuse reference to representations of these two groups and that academic education, if accepted both theoretical and practical implications of this research s starting point, will still have a long way to go. Cities such as Natal, "naturally" hospitable, according to its dwellers, where tourism is relevant to their economies, need (re)thinking and (re)organizing, continuously, their actions towards quality and performance of their professional training especially those concerned with receptive structure

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This study focuses on a methodology of unchained action by Father Sabino Gentili in Mãe Luiza, suburb of Natal-RN, which has enhanced social participation in what Castells calls project identity. The perception of collective actions, focused on the development of subjects from the perspective of Alain Touraine occurs continuously in a popular neighborhood, whose history marked by conflict mainly related to the resistance in the remaining living space. It is argued that there was an appropriation of resistance identity, which was already present in the community of Mãe Luiza, in order to channel it to create a project identity, through an implicit methodology that has been identified as Pedagogy of Consensus, based on Paulo Freire s concepts of dialogue and participation. Therefore, by means of qualitative research, using tools such as semi-structured interviews and documented sources, we tried to describe the intent of the action of a social actor and the political and educational strategies that motivate the collective action aiming a social change, observing the elements present in this action that allowed the continuity of organizational and participating processes through the dynamics of Mãe Luiza s neighborhood

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This Researchis about history education and is directed toward the understanding of teacher practices in schools of the basic education in Ceará-Mirim, a city located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Its purpose is to understand the approaching forms of local history in 5ª to 8ª grade classrooms in the light of the recent innovations in the fields of the historiografy and education. The study was done with a view of investigating local history is being taught by teachers, as well as reflecting on the necessary conditions to the accomplishment of a teaching whose know how to make possible to break, on the one hand, with the limits of the narrow `local view`, and, on the other hand, with the globalized view, negating the local particularitities and especifications. Such questions had emerged as the understanding of what local history contents can constitute in a significant component in the production of school historical knowledge in 5ª to 8ª grade classrooms. History education is analyzed, considering the depositions of three teachers of Ceará-Mirim in reagard to its historiography conceptions and history as a school subject. This inquiry is of a qualitative nature and had as a main strategy of data construction from the interviews with the teachers. The analysis indicates the permanence of teacher practices who, even though presenting innovations, bring an implicit value hierarchy where the place or thematic places are not contemplated in the school contents or appear overwhelmed by general history and the Brazilian history, configuring itself as a hierarchical relation to problematic historical ones. Thus the necessity of having historical school knowledge, that considers the local especifications, without, however, ignoring the articulations with other spatial dimensions

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This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

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The process of urbanization in recent decades has generated considerable seriousness of problems relating to the use and occupation physical environment of cities. The concentration of population, economic activities and technological standards have reinforced an existing urban environment highly degraded as a consequence of the development style that leads to the predatory use of natural resources. In this context, cities as centers of production and consumption, have the most serious problems of environmental degradation. This study investigated the impacts of the municipal building projects to large-scale vertical in the town of Vila de Ponta Negra, Natal-RN, given the proximity to the Environmental Protection Area (ZPA-6) and considering its environmental importance , scenic, landscape and tourism for the city of Natal-RN. The fragility of the licensing process and the failure of the assumptions in the analysis, objective and subjective, for the granting of environmental permits for the building construction projects, specifically those set out in the surroundings of the Environmental Protection Area (ZPA-6) and fundamental importance of landscape and tourism for the city of Natal, has aroused the concern of local people in and of itself the Government, faced with the probable impacts that will affect greatly the Vila de Ponta Negra. The methodology used to achieve the intended objectives will be the literature review, questionnaire to the surrounding population and the Government, as well as findings on the spot, through the photographic record. The beneficiaries of the license, if the entrepreneurs, have been affected because of the granting of licensing act of investing large amount of capital in the works. Additionally, with distrust of the population, since they are to discredit the public system of environmental management have guessed by the probability of imbalance to the environment and structural damage to the Vila de Ponta Negra, where such failure to support energy, lack of regular supply of water , lack of sanitation and access roads sufficient for the flow of motor vehicles in these areas, among other factors. Thus, this work will contribute to the diagnosis and solutions to the problem in question, so that the Government will effectively fulfill its social management of ecologically balanced environment of continuing urban development in Natal, Brazil

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The work objective was to investigate the influence of social practices social in the choise decision of a tourist destination. For in such a way, a survey with the aid of a questionnaire, was used as being the research instrument. The study used a simple random sample without replacement, due to elements of the population had a equal probability different of zero, to be selected for forming part of the sample. The used collection method of data was personal interview. The data was collected at Augusto Severo International Airport at the moment in which tourists were embarking in return to the residence place or another tourist destination. For determination of sample size, it was considered the tourist who had visited Natal in November and December, 2004, supplied by the Secretariat of Tourism in the RN. The sample for the research was of 403 people. Results showed that the interviewed express the existence of high level of competitiveness in the tourism industry. It was observed that 42.5% of the interviewed believes to exist a very aggressive competition, and 47.5% believed that the competition is aggressive in the tourism industry. 10.4% of the interviewed expressed much interest in knowing about social practices in the tourism industry and 2.8% had not presented any interest in knowing about social practices in the tourism industry. For the interviewed, the travel agency image is a significant item in the choice for a tourist package, because of 35.6% believed that this factor is very important in the choice. 5% of the interviewed only find that little important or that sometimes the travel agency image can be seen as s decisive factor in the tourist package choice

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The problems of combinatory optimization have involved a large number of researchers in search of approximative solutions for them, since it is generally accepted that they are unsolvable in polynomial time. Initially, these solutions were focused on heuristics. Currently, metaheuristics are used more for this task, especially those based on evolutionary algorithms. The two main contributions of this work are: the creation of what is called an -Operon- heuristic, for the construction of the information chains necessary for the implementation of transgenetic (evolutionary) algorithms, mainly using statistical methodology - the Cluster Analysis and the Principal Component Analysis; and the utilization of statistical analyses that are adequate for the evaluation of the performance of the algorithms that are developed to solve these problems. The aim of the Operon is to construct good quality dynamic information chains to promote an -intelligent- search in the space of solutions. The Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) is intended for applications based on a transgenetic algorithmic known as ProtoG. A strategy is also proposed for the renovation of part of the chromosome population indicated by adopting a minimum limit in the coefficient of variation of the adequation function of the individuals, with calculations based on the population. Statistical methodology is used for the evaluation of the performance of four algorithms, as follows: the proposed ProtoG, two memetic algorithms and a Simulated Annealing algorithm. Three performance analyses of these algorithms are proposed. The first is accomplished through the Logistic Regression, based on the probability of finding an optimal solution for a TSP instance by the algorithm being tested. The second is accomplished through Survival Analysis, based on a probability of the time observed for its execution until an optimal solution is achieved. The third is accomplished by means of a non-parametric Analysis of Variance, considering the Percent Error of the Solution (PES) obtained by the percentage in which the solution found exceeds the best solution available in the literature. Six experiments have been conducted applied to sixty-one instances of Euclidean TSP with sizes of up to 1,655 cities. The first two experiments deal with the adjustments of four parameters used in the ProtoG algorithm in an attempt to improve its performance. The last four have been undertaken to evaluate the performance of the ProtoG in comparison to the three algorithms adopted. For these sixty-one instances, it has been concluded on the grounds of statistical tests that there is evidence that the ProtoG performs better than these three algorithms in fifty instances. In addition, for the thirty-six instances considered in the last three trials in which the performance of the algorithms was evaluated through PES, it was observed that the PES average obtained with the ProtoG was less than 1% in almost half of these instances, having reached the greatest average for one instance of 1,173 cities, with an PES average equal to 3.52%. Therefore, the ProtoG can be considered a competitive algorithm for solving the TSP, since it is not rare in the literature find PESs averages greater than 10% to be reported for instances of this size.

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This work introduces a new method for environment mapping with three-dimensional information from visual information for robotic accurate navigation. Many approaches of 3D mapping using occupancy grid typically requires high computacional effort to both build and store the map. We introduce an 2.5-D occupancy-elevation grid mapping, which is a discrete mapping approach, where each cell stores the occupancy probability, the height of the terrain at current place in the environment and the variance of this height. This 2.5-dimensional representation allows that a mobile robot to know whether a place in the environment is occupied by an obstacle and the height of this obstacle, thus, it can decide if is possible to traverse the obstacle. Sensorial informations necessary to construct the map is provided by a stereo vision system, which has been modeled with a robust probabilistic approach, considering the noise present in the stereo processing. The resulting maps favors the execution of tasks like decision making in the autonomous navigation, exploration, localization and path planning. Experiments carried out with a real mobile robots demonstrates that this proposed approach yields useful maps for robot autonomous navigation

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In this work, we propose a probabilistic mapping method with the mapped environment represented through a modified occupancy grid. The main idea of the proposed method is to allow a mobile robot to construct in a systematic and incremental way the geometry of the underlying space, obtaining at the end a complete environment map. As a consequence, the robot can move in the environment in a safe way, based on a confidence value of data obtained from its perceptive system. The map is represented in a coherent way, according to its sensory data, being these noisy or not, that comes from exterior and proprioceptive sensors of the robot. Characteristic noise incorporated in the data from these sensors are treated by probabilistic modeling in such a way that their effects can be visible in the final result of the mapping process. The results of performed experiments indicate the viability of the methodology and its applicability in the area of autonomous mobile robotics, thus being an contribution to the field

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The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

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Currently, one of the biggest challenges for the field of data mining is to perform cluster analysis on complex data. Several techniques have been proposed but, in general, they can only achieve good results within specific areas providing no consensus of what would be the best way to group this kind of data. In general, these techniques fail due to non-realistic assumptions about the true probability distribution of the data. Based on this, this thesis proposes a new measure based on Cross Information Potential that uses representative points of the dataset and statistics extracted directly from data to measure the interaction between groups. The proposed approach allows us to use all advantages of this information-theoretic descriptor and solves the limitations imposed on it by its own nature. From this, two cost functions and three algorithms have been proposed to perform cluster analysis. As the use of Information Theory captures the relationship between different patterns, regardless of assumptions about the nature of this relationship, the proposed approach was able to achieve a better performance than the main algorithms in literature. These results apply to the context of synthetic data designed to test the algorithms in specific situations and to real data extracted from problems of different fields