35 resultados para Previsión demográfica
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
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This study sprang from the hypothesis that spatial variations in the morbidity rate for dengue fever within the municipality of Natal are related to intra-city socioeconomic and environmental variations. The objective of the project was to classify the different suburbs of Natal according to their living conditions and establish if there was any correlation between this classification and the incidence rate for dengue fever, with the aim of enabling public health planners to better control this disease. Data on population density, access to safe drinking water, rubbish collection, sewage disposal facilities, income level, education and the incidence of dengue fever during the years 2001 and 2003 was drawn from the Brazilian Demographic Census 2000 and from the Reportable Disease Notification System -SINAN. The study is presented here in the form of two papers, corresponding to the types of analysis performed: a classification of the urban districts into quartiles according to the living conditions which exist there, in the first article; and the incidence of dengue fever in each of these quartiles, in the second. By applying factorial analysis to the chosen socioeconomic and environmental indicators for the year 2000, a compound index of living condition (ICV) was obtained. On the basis of this index, it was possible to classify the urban districts into quartiles. On undertaking this grouping (paper 1), a heterogeneous distribution of living conditions was found across the city. As to the incidence rate for dengue fever (paper 2), it was discovered that the quartile identified as having the best living conditions presented incidence rates of 15.62 and 15.24 per 1000 inhabitants respectively in the years 2001 and 2003; whereas the quartile representing worst living conditions showed incidence rates of 25.10 and 10.32 for the comparable periods. The results suggest that dengue fever occurs in all social classes, and that its incidence is not related in any evident way to the chosen formula for living conditions
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The search for sustainable solutions through an appropriate environmental administration of the available natural resources, that comes from encounter to the aspirations of preservation of the environment and of the human being, in way to diagnose and to solve the environmental and social problems with the smallest possible impact to the nature and the man, it is the great challenge, so much for that generation, as for the future generations. The study of the environmental problems of the water and the participation and the social actors' environmental understanding as a whole, interferes in the field of the thematic environmental international, contemplating the strategic need of an appropriate administration of that very natural one, through a program returned to the diagnosis of the problems and in the search of compatible maintainable solutions, in a social and environmental politics of planning and environmental education, centered above all in the citizen's voice , user of that system. The present thesis she seeks to study the problem of the maintainable administration of the water, focusing the participation and the citizen's environmental understanding in the use of that very natural one for urban residential activities, in what concerns the approach and analyses of variables that treat of the measurement of general knowledge and you adapt, sense of community of the access to the means of information and of the attitudes and environmental behaviors, besides the variables of partner-demographic characterization or personal identification of the interviewed ones of an exploratory research of the type " survey ", accomplished through a stratified aleatory sampling, being the strata each one of the 4 (four) Political-Administrative Areas of the Natal city, having happened the collection of the data in the period of february to april/2002. The methodology used in this work it constitutes in the application of questionnaires with scales of the type Likert to measure the echo-varied of the study, besides a partner-demographic scale for the characterization of the studied sample. For the analysis of the results, it was made an exploratory descriptive study initially, followed by the use of techniques statistical multivariate s, such as, factorial analysis through the application of main components, besides the accomplishment of studies of multiple lineal regression. To complement this study, the accomplishment of Tests of Independence was proceeded through the Qui-square of Pearson, in way to verify the dependence of the associations between the partner-demographic variables and the principal selected variables and presents in the resulting factors of the factorial analysis. The results appear for a low level of environmental knowledge, of access to the information and community's sense, besides the verification that the principal factors resultants send for the need of feeling emphasis in the programs and administration actions addressed for the environmental understanding, the behaviors and attitudes that approach the information and the environmental education, besides the reuse of the water
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The Metropolitan Region of Natal, like other metropolitan regions in Brazil, was marked by intense and rapid urbanization of the country occurred only in the second half of the twentieth century, coinciding with the process of consolidation of the industry in the country, resulting in serious urban social problems, such as the increase in slums, lack of infrastructure and this increase in violence in urban centers. When enters the reality of the metropolitan region, assessing the impacts of restructuring productive in the context of globalization, analyzing how the socio-economic factors influencing the dynamic of the population, whose configuration was shown to be contradictory according to social class busy. Accordingly, we studied the demographic configuration of the Metropolitan Region of Natal, analyzing their spatial distribution and their socio-demographic differences in light of building a type socio-space, which cuts the metropolitan space in homogeneous areas
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This research aims the analysis of the urbanization process that has taken place in the coastal city of Tibau/RN in the period comprising 1980-2012, due to the (re) production of space to consumption of leisure and recreation, through the so called practice of Maritime Villeggiatura. Such practice exists so that people settle temporarily on the beach as a second home, interfering in the Regulation of the land use as well as in the urban planning of Tibau, promoting urbanization based in the logic of leisure, with enormous capacity for appropriation and space consumption. The practice of Maritime Villeggiatura in Tibau began in the late nineteenth century, becoming more relevant in the 1980s, when the practice became fashionable for the citizens of Mossoró City, in view of their economic strength, and consumption power to invest in this type of domicile. Tibau has become a great depository of second homes for leisure practice, which contributed even to the city administrative and political emancipation in 1997. The intensification of Real Estate activities, expanding second homes along the coast, results in the urbanization of Tibau territory with the assistance of Local Government, whom was interested in entering Tibau on the State tourism routes. The used methodology comprised literature review, data collection and local observation. Questionnaires were applied in the form of interviews to the villeggiaturistas, local residents, business and trade services local companies, a local agricultural firm named Agricultura Famosa Ltda., Municipal government and the Association of Senior Citizens of the municipality of Tibau. A photographic record was made to visualize the urbanization evolution of Tibau. It has also been taken georeference measures of the area object of study in this research, in order to analyze the use and occupation of the territory by urban and social agents villeggiaturistas and residents. The conclusion is that the urbanization process that has been taken in Tibau occurred along the coast shore, with low population density, and therefore creating difficulties to governance of the Municipal government. Real Estate Sector has been promoting the value increase of urban land in order to fragment the space with private condominiums segregating local resident population to outlying areas of the city, away from the coastline and lacking infrastructure and basic urban services