35 resultados para Cadeia de Markov


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Performance measurement in highly competitive markets is a necessary measure for those who aim the top positions. The business performance measurement approach have reached relevant results in the literature, however, a different approach has recently appeared that broadened the perception of competition, where companies do not seek the competition among companies only, but also among supply chains. Brazilian Wind energy supply chain is living a structuring and expanding moment, with the major global players in the industry making investments in the country. This research aims to answer which are the key performance indicators that must be considered by the Brazilian wind energy sector companies, which are part in a broad perspective of supply chain competition. The research was executed in two steps: exploratory (literature review and a field research in the companies) and later a survey was conducted with the Brazilian Wind energy companies workers with the purpose to validate the performance indicators found in the exploratory step. The survey evaluated 40 performance indicators distributed among five major activities: Project prospection, building/execution, operation and maintenance, logistics and transverse processes, which summarize the performance of the entire supply chain, pointing the sinergy and the competitive level of the supply chain. The selected performance indicators reflect the high relevance of the costs dimension in the Brazilian energy companies performance, acting as a key performance indicator, is also indicates the limited performance management integration throughout the Brazilian wind energy supply chain

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This study aims to use a computational model that considers the statistical characteristics of the wind and the reliability characteristics of a wind turbine, such as failure rates and repair, representing the wind farm by a Markov process to determine the estimated annual energy generated, and compare it with a real case. This model can also be used in reliability studies, and provides some performance indicators that will help in analyzing the feasibility of setting up a wind farm, once the power curve is known and the availability of wind speed measurements. To validate this model, simulations were done using the database of the wind farm of Macau PETROBRAS. The results were very close to the real, thereby confirming that the model successfully reproduced the behavior of all components involved. Finally, a comparison was made of the results presented by this model, with the result of estimated annual energy considering the modeling of the distribution wind by a statistical distribution of Weibull

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This paper we study a random strategy called MOSES, which was introduced in 1996 by Fran¸cois. Asymptotic results of this strategy; behavior of the stationary distributions of the chain associated to strategy, were derived by Fran¸cois, in 1998, of the theory of Freidlin and Wentzell [8]. Detailings of these results are in this work. Moreover, we noted that an alternative approach the convergence of this strategy is possible without making use of theory of Freidlin and Wentzell, yielding the visit almost certain of the strategy to uniform populations which contain the minimum. Some simulations in Matlab are presented in this work

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The paper demonstrates how it is organized production chain of natural gas in Rio Grande do Norte and highlights some prospects for this sector. The study is backed by elements to understand the process of innovation as the driving force of capitalist dynamics as well as the features of the Brazilian economy in the years 1990 and 2000 that indicated the development of natural gas production in the energy matrix Brazil. It was found that the state has potiguar possibilities for structuring an energy based on elements from the region and with prospects of becoming self-sufficient in electricity, where natural gas has a share of participation in this segment. The automotive and industrial are the biggest consumers of this input. With emphasis on the textile industry. Signaling to a broad horizon of supply, this sector will depend on their investments in research and Deficient, and the policy adopted by government to develop the consumer market

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In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a data set of Brazilian streams. After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain. The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy’s model provides, but using a single tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent processes