Avaliação e correções de testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.

Novo método para estimativa do gradiente de fratura para poços de petróleo

The development of oil wells drilling requires additional cares mainly if the drilling is in offshore ultra deep water with low overburden pressure gradients which cause low fracture gradients and, consequently, difficult the well drilling by the reduction of the operational window. To minimize, in the well planning phases, the difficulties faced by the drilling in those sceneries, indirect models are used to estimate fracture gradient that foresees approximate values for leakoff tests. These models generate curves of geopressures that allow detailed analysis of the pressure behavior for the whole well. Most of these models are based on the Terzaghi equation, just differentiating in the determination of the values of rock tension coefficient. This work proposes an alternative method for prediction of fracture pressure gradient based on a geometric correlation that relates the pressure gradients proportionally for a given depth and extrapolates it for the whole well depth, meaning that theses parameters vary in a fixed proportion. The model is based on the application of analytical proportion segments corresponding to the differential pressure related to the rock tension. The study shows that the proposed analytical proportion segments reaches values of fracture gradient with good agreement with those available for leakoff tests in the field area. The obtained results were compared with twelve different indirect models for fracture pressure gradient prediction based on the compacting effect. For this, a software was developed using Matlab language. The comparison was also made varying the water depth from zero (onshore wellbores) to 1500 meters. The leakoff tests are also used to compare the different methods including the one proposed in this work. The presented work gives good results for error analysis compared to other methods and, due to its simplicity, justify its possible application

Detecção e isolamento de falhas em sistemas dinâmicos baseados em redes neurais

This master dissertation presents the development of a fault detection and isolation system based in neural network. The system is composed of two parts: an identification subsystem and a classification subsystem. Both of the subsystems use neural network techniques with multilayer perceptron training algorithm. Two approaches for identifica-tion stage were analyzed. The fault classifier uses only residue signals from the identification subsystem. To validate the proposal we have done simulation and real experiments in a level system with two water reservoirs. Several faults were generated above this plant and the proposed fault detection system presented very acceptable behavior. In the end of this work we highlight the main difficulties found in real tests that do not exist when it works only with simulation environments

Uma ferramenta de manipulação de pacotes para análise de protocolos de redes industriais baseados em TCP/IP

This work presents a packet manipulation tool developed to realize tests in industrial devices that implements TCP/IP-based communication protocols. The tool was developed in Python programming language, as a Scapy extension. This tool, named IndPM- Industrial Packet Manipulator, can realize vulnerability tests in devices of industrial networks, industrial protocol compliance tests, receive server replies and utilize the Python interpreter to build tests. The Modbus/TCP protocol was implemented as proof-of-concept. The DNP3 over TCP protocol was also implemented but tests could not be realized because of the lack of resources. The IndPM results with Modbus/TCP protocol show some implementation faults in a Programmable Logic Controller communication module frequently utilized in automation companies

Controlador adaptativo por posicionamento de pólos e estrutura variável aplicado ao controle de geradores eólicos baseados em máquina de indução duplamente alimentada

In the last decade, the renewable energy sources have present a major propulsion in the world due to several factors: political, environmental, financial and others. Within this context, we have in particular the energy obtained through wind, wind energy - that has highlighted with rapid growth in recent years, including in Brazil, mostly in the Northeast, due to it s benefit-cost between the clean energies. In this context, we propose to compare the variable structure adaptive pole placement control (VS-APPC) with a traditional control technique proportional integral controller (PI), applied to set the control of machine side in a conversion system using a wind generator based on Double-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG). Robustness and performance tests were carried out to the uncertainties of the internal parameters of the machine and variations of speed reference.

Testes cinemáticos em cosmologia com decaimento do vácuo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Modelos cosmológicos com velocidade da luz variável

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

Análise em conjunta de testes cosmológicos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Estudo dos efeitos comportamentais do neuropeptídeos em camundongos submetidos a modelos animais de Parkinson

Neuropeptide S (NPS) is the endogenous ligand of a G-protein coupled receptor. Preclinical studies have shown that NPSR receptor activation can promote arousal, anxiolytic-like behavioral, decrease in food intake, besides hyperlocomotion, which is a robust but not well understood phenomenon. Previous findings suggest that dopamine transmission plays a crucial role in NPS hyperactivity. Considering the close relationship between dopamine and Parkinson Disease (PD), and also that NPSR receptors are expressed on dopaminergic nuclei in the brain, the current study attempted to investigate the effects of NPS in motor deficits induced by intracerebroventricular (icv) administration of 6-OHDA and systemic administration of haloperidol. Motor deficits induced by 6-OHDA and haloperidol were evaluated on Swiss mice in the rota-rod and catalepsy test. Time on the rotating rod and time spent immobile in the elevated bar were measured respectively in each test. L-Dopa, a classic antiparkinsonian drug, and NPS were administrated in mice submitted to one of the animal models of PD related above. 6-OHDA injection evoked severe motor impairments in rota-rod test, while the cataleptic behavior of 6-OHDA injected mice was largely variable. The administration of L-Dopa (25 mg/kg) and NPS (0,1 and 1 nmol) reversed motor impairments induced by 6-OHDA in the rota-rod. Haloperidolinduced motor deficits on rota-rod and catalepsy tests which were reversed by L-Dopa (100 e 400 mg/kg), but not by NPS (0,1 and 1 nmol) administration. The association of L-Dopa 10 mg/kg and NPS 1 nmol was also unable to counteract haloperidol-induced motor deficits. To summarize, 6-OHDA-, but not haloperidol-, induced motor deficits were reversed by the central administration of NPS. These data suggest that NPS possibly facilitates dopamine release in basal ganglia, what would explain the overcome of motor performance promoted by NPS administration in animals pretreated with 6-OHDA, but not haloperidol. Finally, the presented findings point, for the first time, to the potential of NPSR agonist as an innovative treatment for PD.

Uma estratégia dirigida a modelos e baseada em linguagem de descrição arquitetural para linhas de produtos de software

Model-oriented strategies have been used to facilitate products customization in the software products lines (SPL) context and to generate the source code of these derived products through variability management. Most of these strategies use an UML (Unified Modeling Language)-based model specification. Despite its wide application, the UML-based model specification has some limitations such as the fact that it is essentially graphic, presents deficiencies regarding the precise description of the system architecture semantic representation, and generates a large model, thus hampering the visualization and comprehension of the system elements. In contrast, architecture description languages (ADLs) provide graphic and textual support for the structural representation of architectural elements, their constraints and interactions. This thesis introduces ArchSPL-MDD, a model-driven strategy in which models are specified and configured by using the LightPL-ACME ADL. Such strategy is associated to a generic process with systematic activities that enable to automatically generate customized source code from the product model. ArchSPLMDD strategy integrates aspect-oriented software development (AOSD), modeldriven development (MDD) and SPL, thus enabling the explicit modeling as well as the modularization of variabilities and crosscutting concerns. The process is instantiated by the ArchSPL-MDD tool, which supports the specification of domain models (the focus of the development) in LightPL-ACME. The ArchSPL-MDD uses the Ginga Digital TV middleware as case study. In order to evaluate the efficiency, applicability, expressiveness, and complexity of the ArchSPL-MDD strategy, a controlled experiment was carried out in order to evaluate and compare the ArchSPL-MDD tool with the GingaForAll tool, which instantiates the process that is part of the GingaForAll UML-based strategy. Both tools were used for configuring the products of Ginga SPL and generating the product source code

Uma abordagem dirigida por modelos para desenvolvimento de middlewares auto-adaptativos para transmissão de fluxo de dados baseado em restrições de QoS

The use of middleware technology in various types of systems, in order to abstract low-level details related to the distribution of application logic, is increasingly common. Among several systems that can be benefited from using these components, we highlight the distributed systems, where it is necessary to allow communications between software components located on different physical machines. An important issue related to the communication between distributed components is the provision of mechanisms for managing the quality of service. This work presents a metamodel for modeling middlewares based on components in order to provide to an application the abstraction of a communication between components involved in a data stream, regardless their location. Another feature of the metamodel is the possibility of self-adaptation related to the communication mechanism, either by updating the values of its configuration parameters, or by its replacement by another mechanism, in case of the restrictions of quality of service specified are not being guaranteed. In this respect, it is planned the monitoring of the communication state (application of techniques like feedback control loop), analyzing performance metrics related. The paradigm of Model Driven Development was used to generate the implementation of a middleware that will serve as proof of concept of the metamodel, and the configuration and reconfiguration policies related to the dynamic adaptation processes. In this sense was defined the metamodel associated to the process of a communication configuration. The MDD application also corresponds to the definition of the following transformations: the architectural model of the middleware in Java code, and the configuration model to XML

Técnicas baseadas em etnografia e prototipagem no Design de interface de aplicativo mobile para gerenciamento acadêmico

Baseado na metodologia de design participativo, este artigo relata o processo de pesquisa e desenvolvimento de uma versão mobile de um sistema já existente para desktop e amplamente utilizado para o compartilhamento de informações acadêmicas em uma universidade federal do Brasil. A pesquisa foi realizada em duas etapas. Na ‘Etapa I’ foram realizados estudos baseados em etnografia envolvendo docentes e discentes: Grupo de Foco, Análise Contextual, Avaliação Heurística Participativa e Avaliação Cooperativa. Por meio dos resultados foi possível identificar funcionalidades e requisitos desejáveis, problemas de usabilidade de uma versão mobile já em processo inicial de desenvolvimento, bem como e elaboração de uma nova interface gráfica. Na ‘Etapa II’ foram avaliados modelos de interação por meio de protótipos especificamente projetados para testes no mecanismo de lançamento de frequência do sistema mobile que, em seguida, foram avaliados através de testes de usabilidade e questionário de satisfação do usuário.

A experiência do usuário idoso no design de jogo digital para a reabilitação neural de pacientes com quadro de acidente vascular cerebral (AVC)

Stroke is nowadays one of the main causes of death in Brazil and worldwide. During the rehabilitation process, patients undergo physioterapic exercises based on repetition, which may cause them to feel little progress is being made. Focusing on themes from the areas of Human-Computer Interaction and Motor Imagery, the present work describes the development of a digital game concept aimed at motor rehabilitation to the neural rehabilitation of patients who have suffered a stroke in a playful and engaging way. The research hypothesizes that an interactive digital game based on Motor Imagery contributes to patients' raised commitment in the stroke sequel rehabilitation process. The research process entailed the investigation of 10 subjects who live with sequels caused by stroke - it was further established that subjects were over 60 years old. Using as foundation an initial survey regarding target-users' specificities, where an investigation on subjectrelated aspects was carried out through Focus Group (n=9) and Contextual Analysis (n=3), having as subjects elderly individuals, a list with the necessary requirements for the conceptualization of a digital game was fleshed out. The initial survey also enabled the establishment of preliminary interactions for the formulation of game prototypes. At first, low-resolution prototypes were used, with two distinct interaction models for the game - one with a direct approach to the Motor Imagery concept, and another using a narrative with characters and scene settings. The goal was to verify participants' receptivity regarding the addition of playful activities into game dynamics. Prototypes were analyzed while being used by five patients, through the Cooperative Evaluation technique. The tests indicated a preference for option with elements in a playful narrative. Based on these results high fidelity prototypes were created, where concepts close to the game's final version were elaborated. The High Fidelity prototype was also evaluated with four patients through the Cooperative Evaluation technique. It was concluded that elderly individuals and patients were receptive to the idea of a digital game for the rehabilitation from sequels caused by stroke; that, for the success of devices aimed at these cohorts, their contexts, needs and expectations must be respected above all; and that user-centered design is an essential approach in that regard.

Contribuições de modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados em modelos comportamentais de destino turístico

A fragilidade brasileira quanto à competitividade turística é um fato observável nos dados da Organização Mundial do Turismo. O Brasil caiu em 2011, da 45ª para a 52ª posição, apesar de liderar no atributo recursos naturais e estar colocado na 23° em recursos culturais. Assim, grandes interesses e esforços têm sido direcionados para o estudo da competitividade dos produtos e destinos turísticos. O destino turístico é caracterizado por um conjunto complexo e articulado de fatores tangíveis e intangíveis, apresentando alta complexidade, dados de elevada dimensionalidade, não linearidade e comportamento dinâmico, tornando-se difícil a modelagem desses processos por meio de abordagens baseadas em técnicas estatísticas clássicas. Esta tese investigou modelos de equações estruturais e seus algoritmos, aplicados nesta área, analisando o ciclo completo de análise de dados, em um processo confirmatório no desenvolvimento e avaliação de um modelo holístico da satisfação do turista; na validação da estrutura do modelo de medida e do modelo estrutural, por meio de testes de invariância de múltiplos grupos; na análise comparativa dos métodos de estimação MLE, GLS e ULS para a modelagem da satisfação e na realização de segmentação de mercado no setor de destino turístico utilizando mapas auto-organizáveis de Kohonen e sua validação com modelagem de equações estruturais. Aplicações foram feitas em análises de dados no setor de turismo, principal indústria de serviços do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, tendo sido, teoricamente desenvolvidos e testados empiricamente, modelos de equações estruturais em padrões comportamentais de destino turístico. Os resultados do estudo empírico se basearam em pesquisas com a técnica de amostragem aleatória sistemática, efetuadas em Natal-RN, entre Janeiro e Março de 2013 e forneceram evidências sustentáveis de que o modelo teórico proposto é satisfatório, com elevada capacidade explicativa e preditiva, sendo a satisfação o antecedente mais importante da lealdade no destino. Além disso, a satisfação é mediadora entre a geração da motivação da viagem e a lealdade do destino e que os turistas buscam primeiro à satisfação com a qualidade dos serviços de turismo e, posteriormente, com os aspectos que influenciam a lealdade. Contribuições acadêmicas e gerenciais são mostradas e sugestões de estudo são dadas para trabalhos futuros.

Padronização de testes para avaliação do estado de mania e potencial anti-maníaco de um agonista do receptor NOP

Bipolar disorder is characterized by mood impairment, alternating between mania/hypomania and depression, and its exact pathophysiology is already unknown. The treatment of bipolar disorder is based on prevention of the manic and depressive episodes using mood stabilizers. Nociceptin/orfanin FQ (N/OFQ) is an endogenous heptadecapeptide which binds as an agonist to NOP receptor, which is a G-coupled inhibitory receptor. N/OFQ and its receptor modulate a lot of functions in the organism, including emotional processes. It is known that the plasmatic concentration of N/OFQ is altered in patients in both phases depressive and manic of bipolar disorder and it is assumed that this system has a role on the etiology of this disorder. Concerning mania, the animal models used in research tend to focus in an unique aspect of the manic behavior, as hyperactivity or agressivity. In the 60’s, the hole board test was proposed, and it consists of an apparatus with holes where a behavior known as head-dippings is measured. High levels of head-dippings are suggestive of neophilia, while low levels can be characteristic of an anxious-like behavior. As the increase of exploratory and goal-directed behavior are characteristics of manic behavior, this test could help in mania research. Thus, this work was organized in 3 steps and aims to: (1) investigate the induction of a manic-like state promoted by ouabain, a Na+/K+-ATPase inhibitor, in the mouse open field test; (2) set up the hole board as a test to measure manic-like behaviors; and (3) investigate the N/OFQ effects in prevention of this kind of behavior on hole board. Male Swiss mice were used in this study, and they take part of only one of the described steps. Depending on the step performed, mice received one or more of the following treatments: (1) ouabain 10-6 , 10-5 , 10-4 , 10-3 or 10-2 M, intracerebroventricular (icv); (2) sodium valproate 300 mg/kg, intraperitoneal (ip); (3) sodium valproate 400 mg/kg, ip; (4) diazepam 1 mg/kg, ip; (5) methylphenidate 10 mg/kg, ip; and (6) N/OFQ 0,1 or 1 nmol, icv. The results suggest that hole board can be used to evaluate a manic state, through analysis of different animal behaviors. However, it was not possible to standard the model of Na+ /K+ -ATPase dysfunction through ouabain administration in mice. Moreover, the data suggest that N/OFQ, at the doses tested, has not affected the methylphenidate-induced mania-like behavior. Taken together, the results point to a new approach of manic research, through the hole board using. However, more studies are necessary in order to verify the role of N/OFQ system on bipolar disorder.