Modelo de risco controlado por resseguro e desigualdades para a probabilidade de ruína

In the work reported here we present theoretical and numerical results about a Risk Model with Interest Rate and Proportional Reinsurance based on the article Inequalities for the ruin probability in a controlled discrete-time risk process by Ros ario Romera and Maikol Diasparra (see [5]). Recursive and integral equations as well as upper bounds for the Ruin Probability are given considering three di erent approaches, namely, classical Lundberg inequality, Inductive approach and Martingale approach. Density estimation techniques (non-parametrics) are used to derive upper bounds for the Ruin Probability and the algorithms used in the simulation are presented

Probabilidade no ensino médio

This thesis aims to show teachers and students in teaching and learning in a study of Probability High School, a subject that sharpens the perception and understanding of the phenomea of the random nature that surrounds us. The same aims do with people who are involved in this process understand basic ideas of probability and, when necessary, apply them in the real world. We seek to draw a matched between intuition and rigor and hope therebyto contribute to the work of the teacher in the classroom and the learning process of students, consolidating, deepening and expaning what they have learned in previous contents

HIV/AIDS: um perfil epidemiológico do vírus e uma análise das práticas seguras, conhecimento e percepção de mulheres

In recent decades, the debate surrounding the consequences of the HIV has passed by great changes. Earlier, prevention campaigns focused risk groups then risk behaviors and ultimately vulnerability. Furthermore, over the years, the dimensions of HIV that emerged in the social environment are these: internalization, heterosexualization, impoverishment and feminization. Based on these contexts, the composition of this study comprises two papers: the former has the overall objective to analyze the epidemiology and incidence of HIV in Brazilian regions in the period from 1980 to 2012; the latter, it aims to find out whether there is the relationship among safe practices, knowledge and perception of women residents in Manaus and Boa Vista cities on the infection by HIV. In paper 1, it was used information from the Health Ministry, as a data source. Besides, it was developed an exploratory and spatial analysis of incidence rates and relative proportion of notified cases. In paper 2, was used as a source of data, the research "Evaluating the process of spatial and epidemic diffusion of HIV in the federal units of Brazil-Northern Region" in 2008. Furthermore, Statistical Techniques of Cluster Analysis, Analysis of Variance, Chi-Square and Logistic Regression were applied. In this paper, it was found that, in Brazilian Regions, the prevalence of reported cases occurred among heterosexuals in men 20-40 year age group and residing in metropolitan areas. It was observed a significant spatial correlation of the incidence rate of reported cases of HIV. It was also noted by the results that have good knowledge and awareness about HIV does not imply, essentially, in a safe sexual intercourse. These results have shown the need public policies geared to the guiding of society, based in educational strategies aiming both information about the virus and its prevention, as well as public awareness for safe sex practices or in stable or not intercourses

O jogo dos discos: o uso da experimentação como suporte para o ensino da probabilidade

In this paper we propose a class for introducing the probability teaching using the game discs which is based on the concept of geometric probability and which is supposed to determine the probability of a disc randomly thrown does not intercept the lines of a gridded surface. The problem was posed to a group of 3nd year of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - Jo~ao C^amara. Therefore, the students were supposed to build a grid board in which the success percentage of the players had been previously de ned for them. Once the grid board was built, the students should check whether that theoretically predetermined percentage corresponded to reality obtained through experimentation. The results and attitude of the students in further classes suggested greater involvement of them with discipline, making the environment conducive for learning.

O jogo dos discos: o uso da experimentação como suporte para o ensino da probabilidade

In this paper we propose a class for introducing the probability teaching using the game discs which is based on the concept of geometric probability and which is supposed to determine the probability of a disc randomly thrown does not intercept the lines of a gridded surface. The problem was posed to a group of 3nd year of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - Jo~ao C^amara. Therefore, the students were supposed to build a grid board in which the success percentage of the players had been previously de ned for them. Once the grid board was built, the students should check whether that theoretically predetermined percentage corresponded to reality obtained through experimentation. The results and attitude of the students in further classes suggested greater involvement of them with discipline, making the environment conducive for learning.

Influência do tempo e dose de heparina em modelo de peritonite aguda

In the last years, heparin has become target of many studies related to inflammation due its ability of biding to proteins involved on immune response. Recently, it was demonstrated, at our laboratory, using a thIoglycollate-induced peritonitis model, heparin s capacity of reduce cellular influx into the peritoneal cavity, 3 hours after the inflammatory stimulus. Once neutrophilic infiltration is highest around 8 hours after the inflammatory stimulus, at the present work, using the same peritonitis model, it was assessed heparin s ability of keeping the interference on leukocyte infiltration, 8 hours after inflammation induction. Moreover, using cellular differential count, it was evaluated how the cellular populations involved in the inflammatory process would be affected by the treatment. Eight hours after the inflammatory stimulus, only heparin dosage of 1 μg/Kg was able to reduce the cellular influx to peritoneum, 62.8% of reduction when compared to positive control (p < 0.001). Furthermore, heparin dosage of 15 μg/Kg presented a pro-inflammatory effect in whole blood verified by the increase of 60.9% (p < 0.001) and 117.8% (p < 0.001) on neutrophils and monocytes proportion, respectively, when compared to positive control. In addition, this dosage also presented a neutrophilic proportion on peritoneal fluid 27.3% higher than positive control (p < 0.05). This duality between anti- and pro-inflammatory effects at different times corroborates studies that attribute a pleiotropic immunomodulator role to heparin.