Estudo Comparativo de gráaficos de probabilidade normal para Anáalise de experimentos fatoriais não replicados

Two-level factorial designs are widely used in industrial experimentation. However, many factors in such a design require a large number of runs to perform the experiment, and too many replications of the treatments may not be feasible, considering limitations of resources and of time, making it expensive. In these cases, unreplicated designs are used. But, with only one replicate, there is no internal estimate of experimental error to make judgments about the significance of the observed efects. One of the possible solutions for this problem is to use normal plots or half-normal plots of the efects. Many experimenters use the normal plot, while others prefer the half-normal plot and, often, for both cases, without justification. The controversy about the use of these two graphical techniques motivates this work, once there is no register of formal procedure or statistical test that indicates \which one is best". The choice between the two plots seems to be a subjective issue. The central objective of this master's thesis is, then, to perform an experimental comparative study of the normal plot and half-normal plot in the context of the analysis of the 2k unreplicated factorial experiments. This study involves the construction of simulated scenarios, in which the graphics performance to detect significant efects and to identify outliers is evaluated in order to verify the following questions: Can be a plot better than other? In which situations? What kind of information does a plot increase to the analysis of the experiment that might complement those provided by the other plot? What are the restrictions on the use of graphics? Herewith, this work intends to confront these two techniques; to examine them simultaneously in order to identify similarities, diferences or relationships that contribute to the construction of a theoretical reference to justify or to aid in the experimenter's decision about which of the two graphical techniques to use and the reason for this use. The simulation results show that the half-normal plot is better to assist in the judgement of the efects, while the normal plot is recommended to detect outliers in the data

Testes em modelos weibull na forma estendida de Marshall-Olkin

In survival analysis, the response is usually the time until the occurrence of an event of interest, called failure time. The main characteristic of survival data is the presence of censoring which is a partial observation of response. Associated with this information, some models occupy an important position by properly fit several practical situations, among which we can mention the Weibull model. Marshall-Olkin extended form distributions other a basic generalization that enables greater exibility in adjusting lifetime data. This paper presents a simulation study that compares the gradient test and the likelihood ratio test using the Marshall-Olkin extended form Weibull distribution. As a result, there is only a small advantage for the likelihood ratio test

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

Modelo de risco controlado por resseguro e desigualdades para a probabilidade de ruína

In the work reported here we present theoretical and numerical results about a Risk Model with Interest Rate and Proportional Reinsurance based on the article Inequalities for the ruin probability in a controlled discrete-time risk process by Ros ario Romera and Maikol Diasparra (see [5]). Recursive and integral equations as well as upper bounds for the Ruin Probability are given considering three di erent approaches, namely, classical Lundberg inequality, Inductive approach and Martingale approach. Density estimation techniques (non-parametrics) are used to derive upper bounds for the Ruin Probability and the algorithms used in the simulation are presented

A distribuição F generalizada para selecionar modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Probabilidade no ensino médio

This thesis aims to show teachers and students in teaching and learning in a study of Probability High School, a subject that sharpens the perception and understanding of the phenomea of the random nature that surrounds us. The same aims do with people who are involved in this process understand basic ideas of probability and, when necessary, apply them in the real world. We seek to draw a matched between intuition and rigor and hope therebyto contribute to the work of the teacher in the classroom and the learning process of students, consolidating, deepening and expaning what they have learned in previous contents

Ocorrência de compostos de interesse emergente no aquífero Dunas-Barreiras e nos esgotos de Natal/RN

The detection of emerging interest microcontaminants in environmental samples of surface water, groundwater, drinking water, wastewater and effluents from water and sewage treatment plants (WTP and STP), in many countries, suggests these pollutants are widespread in the environment, mainly in urban areas. This is a reason for great concern, since many of these compounds are potentially harmful for humans other living beings, and they are not efficiently removed in the majority of WTP and STP, which is exacerbated by precariousness of water supply and sanitation services. In Natal, like other Brazilian cities, the sewage system serves only part of the urban area (about 30%), so that the rest of the wastewater is infiltrated in the sandy soil of the region in cesspool-dry well systems. This has resulted in contamination of groundwater in the area (sand-dune barrier aquifer, which supplies more than 50% of the city population), which has been observed by the increase in nitrate concentration in supply wells. The vulnerability of the sanddune barrier aquifer, combined with reports of the presence of emerging interest microcontaminants in Brazil and worldwide, led to this research, which investigated the occurrence of fifteen microcontaminants in Natal groundwater and sewage. Samples were collected at five wells used for water supply, the raw sewage and the effluents from biological reactors from STP (UASB and activated sludge reactors). Two samples of each sample were taken, with one week apart between the samples. To determine the contaminants, extraction of aquifer water, and raw and treated sewage samples were performed, through the technique of using SPE Strata X cartridge (Phenomenex®) to the aquifer water, and Strata SAX and Strata X (Phenomenex® ) for samples of raw and treated sewage. Subsequently the extracts were analyzed using GC-MS technique. Much of the analyzed microcontaminants were detected in groundwater and sewage. The concentrations in groundwater are generally lower than those found in the sewers. Some of the compounds (estrone, estradiol, bisphenol A, caffeine, diclofenac, naproxen, paracetamol and ibuprofen) are partially removed at STP.

O gênero Geastrum Pers. (Geastraceae, Basidiomycota): ocorrência, chave taxonômica e descrições de novas espécies do Nordeste brasileiro

Geastraceae is a monophyletic family included in the gomphoid-phalloid clade, it is composed only by two genus: Geastrum and Myriostoma. These genus are closely related in their morphology and phylogeny, both showing angiocarpic basidiomata, apical stoma, basidiospores passively released by the bellows mechanism and exoperidium dehiscent in rays, these genus are distinct by the number of stomas and pedicels. Because of dehiscense of exoperidium they are popularly known as “earthstars”. Usually they occur on decomposing leaf-litter and decaying wood. They are, thus, saprophytic, with rare exceptions of ectomycorrhizal species. Geastrum is the most diverse gasteroid genus in Brazil, with an estimated 51 records. However, there are large gaps in the geographic distribution and systematics studies about the Geastrum in this country, especially because of the characteristics found in the Brazilian territory (megadiverse, hotspots and continental size), which makes it a priority area for species inventory. Thus, this work was aimed at realizing inventory of species of Geastrum, which occur in Caatinga and Northeastern Atlantic Rainforest. At least two field expeditions were realized, during about four days on rainy season of 2013 and 2014 in the areas: Reserva Biológica de Guaribas, located in Atlantic Rainforest domain, Paraíba State and Reserva Ecológica Estadual Mata do Pau Ferro, located on “Brejos Paraibanos”, Paraíba State. Furthermore, specimens deposited in the Herbarium of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, which were collected in Parque Nacional Vale do Catimbau, Caatinga of Pernambuco State, were analyzed. The specimens were identified according to analysis of macro and micro morphology based on specific literature. Approximately 400 basidiomata, distributed in 73 exsiccates were analyzed. 21 species were identified, 19 are in specie level, which two are proposed to new species. (Geastrum magnosporum sp. nov. e G. pusillupilosum sp. nov.) and two in genera level (sp. e aff.). We emphasize one new record for Brazil, 12 new records for Paraíba State, four new records for semiarid region in Brazil and six new records to Atlantic Rainforest relicts “Brejo de Altitude”. So, the results improved the knowledge about Geastrum in Paraíba State by 200%, 24 % in Brazilian semiarid region and 55% in Atlantic Rainforest relicts “Brejo de Altitude”, evincing that Northeastern Brazil has high species richness.

Ocorrência de leite instável na região semiárida do Rio Grande do Norte e sua correlação com a qualidade do leite

The unstable non acid milk (UNAM) is characterized by coagulation in the alcohol test and wanted acidity (14-18°D). Among Brazilian regions, the South and Southeast have the highest occurrence of LINA, which has been causing problems for both producers and for industries, due to the disposal or undervaluation of milk. In the Northeast there are few studies that indicate their occurrence and quality. The objective of this study was to identify the occurrence of unstable non-acid milk in the west and central mesoregions of Rio Grande do Norte, determine their physicochemical characteristics, test alcoholic graduations and evaluate their correlation with the quality of milk. 176 raw milk samples were analyzed in the period from September to December /2014 from 23 APASA’s cooling tanks, located in 7 cities of west and central mesoregions RN. The samples were collected in duplicate, one sample used for alcohol testing at 68, 72 and 76%, measurement of pH, acidity, electrical conductivity and boiling proof, made in LABOLEITE / UFRN; and the other sample containing Bronopol® preservative, was sent to the APCBRH (Cattle Breeders Association Paranaense Holstein) laboratory in Curitiba-PR, which were analyzed fat, protein, total solids, lactose, casein, urea nitrogen and somatic cell count. The test alcohol samples disapproved 31.82%, of which 30% proved to be non-acid, and 30% had high acidity. The samples were divided into three classes: Stable Milk, UNAM and acid milk. 3% Tukey test was used for comparison of stable milk components and UNAM and there was no significant difference between them. Both classes obtained averages within the standard required by IN 62. The average value of electric conductivity was 4.84 mS/cm for stable milk, 4.55 mS/cm for unstable and acid milk and 4.53 mS/cm for non-acid unstable milk. The electrical conductivity was positively correlated with alcohol stability of milk and negative correlation with acidity and pH. Could not observe direct relationship between the electrical conductivity and the somatic cell count.The boiling test was negative for all samples UNAM. It can be concluded that the incidence of UNAM in the studied region is low, although the predisposing factors such as heat stress, drought and nutritional deficiency. In conclusion, the UNAM has quality similar to stable milk, conform the norms required by Agriculture Ministry, and with adequate thermal stability, which proves that there is no reason to reject this milk by industry.

Behavioural profiles of captive capuchin monkeys (Sapajus spp.): analyses at group and individual levels

The use of behavioural indicators of suffering and welfare in captive animals has produced ambiguous results. In comparisons between groups, those in worse condition tend to exhibit increased overall rate of Behaviours Potentially Indicative of Stress (BPIS), but when comparing within groups, individuals differ in their stress coping strategies. This dissertation presents analyses to unravel the Behavioural Profile of a sample of 26 captive capuchin monkeys, of three different species (Sapajus libidinosus, S. flavius and S. xanthosternos), kept in different enclosure types. In total, 147,17 hours of data were collected. We explored four type of analysis: Activity Budgets, Diversity indexes, Markov chains and Sequence analyses, and Social Network Analyses, resulting in nine indexes of behavioural occurrence and organization. In chapter One we explore group differences. Results support predictions of minor sex and species differences and major differences in behavioural profile due to enclosure type: i. individuals in less enriched enclosures exhibited a more diverse BPIS repertoire and a decreased probability of a sequence with six Genus Normative Behaviour; ii. number of most probable behavioural transitions including at least one BPIS was higher in less enriched enclosures; iii. proeminence indexes indicate that BPIS function as dead ends of behavioural sequences, and proeminence of three BPIS (pacing, self-direct, active I) were higher in less enriched enclosures. Overall, these data are not supportive of BPIS as a repetitive pattern, with a mantra-like calming effect. Rather, the picture that emerges is more supportive of BPIS as activities that disrupt organization of behaviours, introducing “noise” that compromises optimal activity budget. In chapter Two we explored individual differences in stress coping strategies. We classified individuals along six axes of exploratory behaviour. These were only weakly correlated indicating low correlation among behavioural indicators of syndromes. Nevertheless, the results are suggestive of two broad stress coping strategies, similar to the bold/proactive and shy/reactive pattern: more exploratory capuchin monkeys exhibited increased values of proeminence in Pacing, aberrant sexual display and Active 1 BPIS, while less active animals exhibited increased probability in significant sequences involving at least one BPIS, and increased prominence in own stereotypy. Capuchin monkeys are known for their cognitive capacities and behavioural flexibility, therefore, the search for a consistent set of behavioural indictors of welfare and individual differences requires further studies and larger data sets. With this work we aim contributing to design scientifically grounded and statistically correct protocols for collection of behavioural data that permits comparability of results and meta-analyses, from whatever theoretical perspective interpretation it may receive.

O jogo dos discos: o uso da experimentação como suporte para o ensino da probabilidade

In this paper we propose a class for introducing the probability teaching using the game discs which is based on the concept of geometric probability and which is supposed to determine the probability of a disc randomly thrown does not intercept the lines of a gridded surface. The problem was posed to a group of 3nd year of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - Jo~ao C^amara. Therefore, the students were supposed to build a grid board in which the success percentage of the players had been previously de ned for them. Once the grid board was built, the students should check whether that theoretically predetermined percentage corresponded to reality obtained through experimentation. The results and attitude of the students in further classes suggested greater involvement of them with discipline, making the environment conducive for learning.

O jogo dos discos: o uso da experimentação como suporte para o ensino da probabilidade

In this paper we propose a class for introducing the probability teaching using the game discs which is based on the concept of geometric probability and which is supposed to determine the probability of a disc randomly thrown does not intercept the lines of a gridded surface. The problem was posed to a group of 3nd year of the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte - Jo~ao C^amara. Therefore, the students were supposed to build a grid board in which the success percentage of the players had been previously de ned for them. Once the grid board was built, the students should check whether that theoretically predetermined percentage corresponded to reality obtained through experimentation. The results and attitude of the students in further classes suggested greater involvement of them with discipline, making the environment conducive for learning.

Estádios larvais e ocorrência sazonal de imaturos de Psaroniocompsa incrustata (Lutz,1910)(Diptera:Smimuliidae) no Rio Pium, município de Nísia Floesta, RN

The larval instars, seasonal occurrence and environmental factors influence on Psaroniocompsa incrustata (Lutz, 1910) (Diptera: Simuliidae) immature were studied according to its physical and chemical aspects of breeding water. Four collects were made at vegetal substrate from margin, middle and floating on the Pium river, city of Nísia Floresta, state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil at dry and wet season. Some of larval characters were used to determinate the larval instars number like lateral length of cephalic capsulae, antennae and the distance among cephalic apodema, as well as pH, water temperature, width, depth, stream velocity, discharge and pluviometric precipitation were used for physical factors. Seven larval instars were determined for this P. incrustata community being the lateral length of cephalic capsulae as the best structure with this meaning propose. The seasonality immature abundance of this species were found in dry season and a positive correlation with pH, stream velocity and precipitation

Ocorrência da infecção por Toxoplasma gondii e avaliação da imunização em caprinos do sertão do cabugi, Rio Grande do Norte

Toxoplasmosis is one zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii protozoan. Goats, amongst the production animals, are one of the species most susceptible to this parasite, being one them main involved agents in ovine and goat abortions, determining great economic losses and implications for public health, since the presence it parasite in the products of goat origin, consist in one of the main sources of infection for the man. In this study 244 blood samples in 8 farms situated in 4 cities from the Sertão do Cabugi region, Rio Grande do Norte State, northeast of Brazil and, tested by ELISA assay. The results had shown a prevalence of 47.13% for anti- T. gondii antibodies and a significant association between positivity and variable evaluated as age, locality and property. The IgG avidity assay evaluated in 115 positive samples was carried to discriminate acute and chronic infection. Twelve samples (10.4%) had presented antibodies of low avidity while 103 (89.6%) presented high avidity antibodies; indicating that most of the animals was precocious exposure to the parasite. Significant difference was verified only for the variable sex. We also evaluate the capacity of recombinant adenoviruses codifying SAG1, SAG2, SAG3 and CMV in inducing activation of specific immune response in goat. These 109 animals received 109 pfu of the AdSAG1, AdSAG2, AdSAG3, AdCMV or PBS in vaccine protocol with 3 immunizations. Serum samples of the each animal, before and after mmunization, had been submitted to the ELISA. The results demonstrate that the immunizations had induced the production of IgG antibodies specific against T. gondii proteins