Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e omissão nas covariáveis

In this work we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev (1993) that are considered in a competing risk setting. Covariates are introduced for modeling the cure rate and we allow some covariates to have missing values. We consider only the cases by which the missing covariates are categorical and implement the EM algorithm via the method of weights for maximum likelihood estimation. We present a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to compare the properties of the estimators based on this method with those estimators under the complete case scenario. We also evaluate, in this experiment, the impact in the parameter estimates when we increase the proportion of immune and censored individuals among the not immune one. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with a real data set involving the time until the graduation for the undergraduate course of Statistics of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Avaliação da influência da matéria orgânica, na determinação quantitativa de metais em amostras de sedimento, por espectrometria de absorção atômica e análise de metais traços por fluorescência de raios-X

The proposal of this work is to evaluate the influence of the organic matter on the results of the analyses of the metals (Zn, Pb, Al, Cu, Cr, Fe, Cd e Ni) for Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (AAS), so much in the extraction stage as in the reading using for that the chemometrics. They were used for this study sample of bottom sediment collected in river Jundiaí in the vicinity of the city of Macaíba-RN, commercial humus and water of the station of treatment of sewer of UFRN. Through the analyses accomplished by EAA it was verified that the interference of the organic matter happens in the extraction stage and not in the reading. With relationship to the technique of X Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry (XRFS), the present work has as intended to evaluate the viability of this technique for quantitative analysis of trace metals (Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr and Pb) in having leached obtained starting from the extraction with acqua regia for an aqueous solution. The used samples constitute the fine fraction (<0.063 mm) of sediments of swamp of the river Jundiaí. The preparation of tablets pressed starting from the dry residue of those leached it allowed your analysis in the solid form. This preliminary study shows that, in the case of the digestion chemistry partially of the fine fractions of bottom sediments used for environmental studies, the technique of applied EFRX to the analysis of dry residues starting from having leached with acqua regia, compared her it analyzes of the leached with ICP-OES, it presents relative mistakes for Cu, Pb, Sr and Zn below 10%

Determinação de Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sn e Zn em Tainha (Mugil brasiliensis) nos estuários potiguares

Heavy metals can cause problems of human poisoning by ingestion of contaminated food, and the environment, a negative impact on the aquatic fauna and flora. And for the presence of these metals have been used for aquatic animals biomonitoramento environment. This research was done in order to assess the environmental impact of industrial and domestic sewage dumped in estuaries potiguares, from measures of heavy metals in mullet. The methods used for these determinations are those in the literature for analysis of food and water. Collections were 20 samples of mullet in several municipality of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, from the estuaries potiguares. Were analyzed the content of humidity, ash and heavy metals. The data were subjected to two methods of exploratory analysis: analysis of the main components (PCA), which provided a multivariate interpretation, showing that the samples are grouped according to similarities in the levels of metals and analysis of hierarchical groupings (HCA), producing similar results. These tests have proved useful for the treatment of the data producing information that would hardly viewed directly in the matrix of data. The analysis of the results shows the high levels of metallic species in samples Mugil brasiliensis collected in Estuaries /Potengi, Piranhas/Açu, Guaraíra / Papeba / Arês and Curimataú

Extração e análise da fração lipídica da microalga monoraphidium sp., síntese e caracterização do seu biodiesel

The cultivation of microalgae biomass in order to produce biodiesel arises as an extremely promising aspect, in that the microalgae culture includes short cycle of reproduction, smaller areas for planting and residual biomass rich in protein content. The present dissertation evaluates the performance and features, through spectrometry in the region of infrared with transformed Fourier (FTIR) and spectrometry in the region of UVvisible (UV-Vis), of the extracted lipid material (LM) using different techniques of cell wall disruption (mechanical agitation at low and at high spin and agitation associated with cavitation). The technique of gas chromatography (GC) brought to light the success of alkaline transesterification in the conversion of oil into methyl monoesters (MME), which was also analyzed by spectroscopic techniques (FTIR, proton magnetic resonance (1H NMR) and carbon (13C NMR). Through thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) were analyzed the lipid material (LM), biodiesel and the microalgae biomass. The method which provided the best results concerning the efficiency in extraction of the LP of Monoraphidium sp. (12,51%) was by mechanical agitation at high spin (14 000 rpm), for 2 hours being the ideal time, as shown by the t test. The spectroscopic techniques (1H NMR, 13C NMR and FTIR) confirmed that the structure of methyl monoesters and the chromatographic data (CG) revealed a high content of saturated fatty acid esters (about 70%) being the major constituent eicosanoic acid (33,7%), which justifies the high thermal stability of microalgae biodiesel. The TGA also ratified the conversion rate (96%) of LM into MME, pointing out the quantitative results compatible with the values obtained through GC (about 98%) and confirmed the efficiency of the extraction methods used, showing that may be a good technique to confirm the extraction of these materials. The content of LM microalgae obtained (12,51%) indicates good potential for using such material as a raw material for biodiesel production, when compared to oil content which can be obtained from traditional oil for this use, since the productivity of microalgae per hectare is much larger and requires an extremely reduced period to renew its cultivation

Assinaturas antropogênicas de elementos maiores e traços em poeira urbana na cidade do Natal-RN

Although there are many studies on urban dust contamination by heavy metals in developed countries, little attention has been paid to this type of study in developing countries, including Brazil. Therefore, a series of investigations were performed to provide signatures of heavy metals in urban dust and assess the potential sources in the city of Natal - RN-Brazil. The fraction of these sediments was studied to pass through a sieve of 63 micrometers. For the study analyzed two groups of samples, one collected in September 2009 at the end of the rainy season (9 samples) and one collected in January 2010 in the dry season (21 samples). So in all, thirty sediment samples were collected from the street. Then, in Fluorescence Spectrometry X-rays were determined major elements SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, MgO, P2O5, Fe2O3, MnO, TiO2 and CaO, and trace Rb, Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, Sr and Pb by an ICPOES was determined Zn, V, Na, K, Ni, Mn, Mg, P, Fe, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ba, Ca and Al from leaching HCl 0.5 mol L-1 . The results of the concentrations of elements show that the greater presence of these occurs in the dry season, except for Si which is higher in the rainy season. Analyses by geoaccumulation Index (IGEO) Enrichment Factor (EF), Contamination Factor (CF), analysis correlation and Hierarchical Cluster, confirm that Zn, Cu and Pb is anthropogenic character. Zinc may be derived from various sources related to motor vehicles or the road signs and street grids. The elements Na, K, Mg and Ca may be related to droplets suspended in air containing cations and anions present in seawater (salty), common in Christmas throughout the year, brought by winds SE-NW. The elements Na, Mg, Ca and K are the most abundant in seawater and were analyzed in this study. This indicates that the source of these additional elements detected by analyzing the contamination factor may be the very sea. Moreover, Ni, Fe, Cr and Ba can be either as a source of anthropogenic geogênica. The source of Ca is different, because it comes in lime and paint (painting guides of buildings and streets) in construction materials, but may also be present in sediments in the fragments of shells or carbonate bioclasts common in the coastal area

Variação espacial e sazonal de elementos maiores e traços no estuários do Rio Curimataú (RN), através de dados geoquímicos e de sensoriamento remoto

The Curimataú estuary is located in the oriental coast of Rio Grande do Norte State in Brazil. Its importance resides in the fact that this region possesses one of the last portions of preserved mangrove in the Rio Grande do Norte State. Nevertheless, it has been severely affected by many anthropogenic activities, as sugarcane monoculture and shrimp farming. Former works demonstrated that an accumulation of heavy metals is occurring in oysters in this estuary, and perhaps it could be explained by the input of metals in this ecosystem deriving from the shrimp farming. To better understanding the origin of these metals, bottom sediment samples, cores and suspended particulate matter were collected for a characterization of metal concentrations (Al, Ba, Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) and to determine the potentially bioavailable metals. Additionally, the enrichment ratio for each element analyzed was calculated. The mineralogical composition of sediment samples and cores were obtained by X-ray diffraction. Moreover, data of orbital remote sensing were used in order to detect and quantify suspended matter by applying a logarithmic algorithm. Geochemical data of bottom sediments and cores revealed that, excepting Ba and Pb, the elements analyzed presented concentrations characteristic of an unpolluted ecosystem (Al: 0,25 - 8,76 %; Ba: 3,03 - 870 µg.g-1; Cd: < 0,25 µg.g-1; Cr: 1,72 - 82,4 µg.g-1; Cu: 0,12 -25,3 µg.g-1; Pb: 0,38 - 23,7 µg.g-1; Fe: 0,10 - 5,82 %; Mn: 15,1 - 815 µg.g-1; Ni: 0,14 - 36,1 µg.g-1; Zn: 1,37 - 113 µg.g-1). During the dry season a distribution pattern was observed, with higher metal concentrations in the margins, decreasing toward the central portion of the channel. These metal concentrations were well correlated with mineralogical compositions, with clay minerals prevailing at the margins, and quartz and feldspar in the center. However, this pattern was not observed during the wet season, probably because of the high water flux that disturbed bottom sediments. But, as observed for the dry season, a good correlation between metal concentrations and mineralogical composition was also observed for the wet season, with high metal concentrations where there were high quantities of clay minerals. Low enrichment ratios were obtained for the majority of elements analyzed, excepting for Mn, Ba and Pb. Manganese presented the higher ratios downstream for both seasons, and it can be an evidence of anthropogenic impact by shrimp farming. As barium and lead concentrations in sediment samples presented analytical problems during the total sample digestion, one cannot be sure that the ratios obtained correspond to the reality. The highest metal concentrations in particulate matter were obtained in the portion dominated by fluvial transport for all metals analyzed, excepting for copper. Barium and zinc were the only elements that presented elevated concentrations that are not common of unpolluted ecosystems (Ba: 5730 - 8355 µg.g-1; Zn: 3899 - 4348 µg.g-1). However, these high concentrations could not be related to the shrimp farming and waste waters from the town of Canguaretama, once they were obtained from the fluvial particulate matter, that is upstream from the activities above mentioned. The application of the logarithmic algorithm to the processed LANDSAT image was well succeeded, although the acquired image does not correspond exactly to the field campaigns. The IKONOS image provided very detailed views of the suspended sediment concentration at the estuary, as the mixture of distinct water flows at the confluence of Cunhaú and Curimataú rivers, with more turbid waters from Cunhaú river, that is directly affected by effluents from shrimp farming and urban waste waters deriving from the town of Canguaretama

Avaliação de uma fração polissacaridica da alga Lobophora variegata (Lamouroux) em modelo de artrite induzida em ratos por Zymosan

Fucans seaweed Lobophora variegata estructures are known for their chemical and biological properties. In this study, we analyzed, the action of fucans L. variegata and the fractions purified with acetone in Zymosan-induced arthritis. After differential fractionation with acetone, six fractions were obtained and named F0.3, F0.5, F0.8, F1, F1.5 and F2. The results showed that the fraction F1 showed high yield (51.9%) and was chosen for studies of antioxidant activity and induced arthritis. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) of 13C showed signals at 103.3 and 15.78 ppm that are assigned to links β13 galactose and of the C6 methyl fucose, respectively. The infrared (IR) showed absorbance at 1238 and 850 cm-1 which are attributed to sulfate. The fraction F1 showed antioxidant activities in vitro. For analysis of inflammatory parameters chosen the polysaccharide was administered in different doses (25, 50 and 75 mg / kg ip, per body weight) and diclofenac sodium (5 mg / kg ip) and L-NAME (25 mg / kg ip) in groups of animals (n = 6). After 6 h, were analyzed for cellular influx and levels of nitrite. In experiment five days, were made analysis of swelling and serum TNF-α. Histopathological analysis were performed for confirmation of results. The fraction F1 (25, 50 and 75 mg / kg ip) reduced the cellular influx (52.1 to 96.7%) and nitric oxide levels (27.2 - 39%) compared to control group. The reduction of edema (63.4 - 100%) and serum TNF-α (p <0.001) were observed when the polysaccharide F1 administered at a dose (50 mg / kg) These results suggest that these heterofucanas of Lobophora variegata have besides the activity antioxidant and potential anti-inflammatory activity in arthritis induced by zymosan

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

A distribuição F generalizada para selecionar modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

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