Estimação e previsão no processo INARCH(2)

In the last decades the study of integer-valued time series has gained notoriety due to its broad applicability (modeling the number of car accidents in a given highway, or the number of people infected by a virus are two examples). One of the main interests of this area of study is to make forecasts, and for this reason it is very important to propose methods to make such forecasts, which consist of nonnegative integer values, due to the discrete nature of the data. In this work, we focus on the study and proposal of forecasts one, two and h steps ahead for integer-valued second-order autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity processes [INARCH (2)], and in determining some theoretical properties of this model, such as the ordinary moments of its marginal distribution and the asymptotic distribution of its conditional least squares estimators. In addition, we study, via Monte Carlo simulation, the behavior of the estimators for the parameters of INARCH(2) processes obtained using three di erent methods (Yule- Walker, conditional least squares, and conditional maximum likelihood), in terms of mean squared error, mean absolute error and bias. We present some forecast proposals for INARCH(2) processes, which are compared again via Monte Carlo simulation. As an application of this proposed theory, we model a dataset related to the number of live male births of mothers living at Riachuelo city, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.

Um olhar sobre a música gospel: a lógica simbólica e de mercado do Ministério de Louvor Diante do Trono

This study aims to understand how the gospel music genre - based on the gospel band Ministério de Louvor Diante do Trono - articulates itself to the logic of the market by its insertion in the music industry and use of symbolic logic in the available songs of their Cds and DVDs. Our research is a case study, methodologically being the descriptive analysis of the production process, distribution and broadcasting of the band's CDs and functional analysis of the music that permeates the entire thesis. The following songs are presented as an analytical corpus: Preciso de Ti,Quero me Apaixonar, Tua Visão, Creio, Tu Reinas e Tetelestai. Our hypothesis is that religious institutions - as a field responsible for the structure which maintains gospel artists - experiences a new dynamic that consists of a superficial modernity, ratified in the ways the symbolic goods produced communicate, that is, simulate a religious modernity maintaining traditional values regarding the dogmas of religion , but incorporate business and advertising procedures in the dissemination of its products The results point to gospel music as mediation, part of the religious ritual sometimes as prayer and other as preaching, stimulating consumption and entertainment, and performing as a device in the making of symbolic goods.

Associação da depressão e distúrbio do sono em pacientes com e sem disfunção temporomandibular

Objective: To evaluate the inter-relationship between TMD (temporomandibular disorder), depression and sleep disorder. Methods: This is a case-control study with questionnaires in 111 patients, allocated from the Dentistry Department of UFRN, Natal, Brazil, from September 2014 to June 2015, for evaluation of depressive symptoms through the BDI (Beck Depression Inventory); sleep disorder, the PSQI (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) and DTM through the RDC / TMD (diagnostic criteria to search for DTM). All indexes were applied by a single examiner previously trained and calibrated. The collected data were analyzed with chi-square tests of Pearson (χ2) and the unconditional logistic regression. Results: women had a risk of 2.85 times more likely to develop TMD (p = 0.046). The OR (odds ratio) shows that sleep disturbance increases by 2.19 the chances of having TMD (p = 0.062) and depressive symptoms increase the risk by 3.16 times in developing dysfunction (p = 0.053). Conclusion: The data of this research allows us to conclude that patients with TMD, in this population, were more likely to develop changes in sleep and depressive symptoms.