Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

A utilização da modelagem física no estudo do desenvolvimento, geometria e cinemática de falhas distensionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Estudo geológico e geofísico da falha de carnaubais, Bacia Potiguar-RN, e implicações neotectônicas

The segment of Carnaubais Fault located in the southeasthern portion of Guamaré Graben (Potiguar Basin) was studied. Several structures were detected and some of them strongly suggest that the last movements in Carnaubais Fault are of Neotectonic age. The study comprises an integrated interpretation of geologic, geomorphologic and geophysical data (gravimetry, magnetometry, resistivity, and self potential methods). According to the size of the studied areas, two approaches were used in this research. The first approach is of a regional nature and was conducted in an area, hereafter named Regional Area, having approximately 6,000 km2 and localized in the northern portion of Rio Grande do Norte state, around Macau city. The second approach comprises detailled studies of two small areas inside the Regional Area: the Camurupim and São Bento areas. Gravimetric and topographic data were used in the Regional Area. A separation into regional and residual components were conducted both on gravimetric and topographic data. The interpretation of the residual component of the gravimetric data allows a precise mapping of the borders of the Guamaré Graben. The regional component features of the topographic data are controlled by the pair of conjugate faults composed by the Carnaubais Fault (NE direction) and the Afonso Bezerra Fault (NW direction). On the other hand, the residual component of the topographic data shows that river valleis of NW direction are sharply interrupted where they intersect Carnaubais Fault. This fact is interpreted as an evidency that the last significant moviments occured in the Carnaubais Fault. Geologic, geomorphologic and geophysical data (magnetometry, resistivity, and self potential methods) were used in the Camurupim Area. The geologic mapping allows to identify five lithophacies unities. The first two unities (from base to top) were interpreted as composing a marine (or transitional) depositional sequency while the other were interpreted is composing a continental depositional sequence. The two sequences are clearly separated of an erosional discordance. The unities grouped in the marine sequence are composed by calcarenites (Unity A) and mudstones (Unity B). Unity A was deposited in a shalow plataform while Unity B, in a tidal flat. The unities grouped in the continental sequence are composed of conglomerate (Unity C) and sandstones (Unities D and E). Unities C and D are fluvial deposits while unity E is an eolian deposit. Unities A and B can be stratigraphycally correlated with Guamaré Formation. Unities C and D present three possible correlations. They may be correlated with Tibau Formation; or with Barreiras Formation; or with a clastic sediment deposit, commonly found in some rivers of Rio Grande do Norte state, and statigraphycally positioned above Barreiras Formation. Based on the decrease of the grain sizes from base to top both on unities C and D, it is proposed that these unities are correlated with the clastic sediment above mentioned. In this case, these unities would have, at least, Pleistocenic age. Finally, it is proposed that Unity E represent an eolian deposit that sufferred recent changes (at least in the Quaternary). The integrated interpretation of hydrographic, morphologic and geophysical data from Camurupim Area shows that Carnaubais Fault is locally composed by a system of several paralel subvertical faults. The fault presenting the larger vertical slip controls the valley of Camurupim river and separates the area in two blocks; in the nothern block the top of the Jandaira limestone is deeper than in the southern block. In addition, at least one of the faults in the northern block is cutting the whole sedimentary section. Because unities C , D, and/or E may be of Quaternary age, tectonic moviments possibly occured in Carnaubais Fault during this period. Detailled geologic mapping were conducted in beachrocks found in São Bento Area. This area is located at the intersection of the coast line with the Carnaubais Fault. The detected structures in the beachrocks are very similar to those caused by fragile deformations. The structures mapped in the beachrocks are consistent with a stress field with maximun compressional stress in E-W direction and extensional stress in the N-S direction. Since the Carnaubais Fault has a NE direction, it is optimally positioned to suffer tectonic movements under the action of such stress field. In addition, the shape of the coastal line appear to be controlled by the Carnaubais Fault. Furthemore, the observed structures in Camurupim Área are consistent with this stress field. These facts are interpreted as evidences that Carnaubais Fault and beachrocks suffered coupled tectonic movements. These moviments are of Neotectonic age because the beachrocks present ages less than 16,000 years

Dobramentos distensionais e a geometria da falha de Baixa Grande, Graben de Umbuzeiro, Bacia Potiguar (RN)

In spite of significant study and exploration of Potiguar Basin, easternmost Brazilian equatorial margin, by the oil industry, its still provides an interesting discussion about its origin and the mechanisms of hydrocarbon trapping. The mapping and interpretation of 3D seismic reflection data of Baixa Grande Fault, SW portion of Umbuzeiro Graben, points as responsible for basin architecture configuration an extensional deformational process. The fault geometry is the most important deformation boundary condition of the rift stata. The development of flat-ramp geometries is responsible for the formation of important extensional anticline folds, many of then hydrocarbon traps in this basin segment. The dominant extensional deformation in the studied area, marked by the development of normal faults developments, associated with structures indicative of obliquity suggests variations on the former regime of Potiguar Basin through a multiphase process. The changes in structural trend permits the generation of local transpression and transtension zones, which results in a complex deformation pattern displayed by the Potiguar basin sin-rift strata. Sismostratigraphic and log analysis show that the Baixa Grande Fault acts as listric growing fault at the sedimentation onset. The generation of a relay ramp between Baixa Grande Fault and Carnaubais Fault was probably responsible for the balance between subsidence and sedimentary influx taxes, inhibiting its growing behaviour. The sismosequences analysis s indicates that the extensional folds generation its diachronic, and then the folds can be both syn- and post-depositional

O graben de Palestina: contribuição à estratigrafia e estrutura do estágio rifte na bacia do Araripe, nordeste do Brasil

The Palestina Graben is one of the NE-trending asymmetric grabens of the Araripe Basin. This basin rests on the precambrian terrains of the Transversal Zone, Borborema Province, immediately to the south of the Patos Lineament. It is part of the Interior Basins province of Northeastern Brazil, being related to the fragmentation of the Gondwana supercontinent and the opening of the South Atlantic ocean. The Palestina Graben trends NE-SW and presents an asymmetric geometry, controled by the NW extensional eocretaceous strain. The graben borders display distinct geometries. The SE border is a flexural margin, characterized by the non conformity of the eopaleozoic Mauriti Formation (the oldest unit of the basin) overlying the crystalline basement, but also affected by normal faults with small displacements. On the opposite, the NW border is continuous and rectilinear, being marked by normal faults with major displacements, that control the general tilting of the layers to the NW. In this sense, the Mauriti Formation is overlain by the Brejo Santo, Missão Velha (which also occurs in the Brejo Santo-Mauriti horst, to the NW of the fault border) and Abaiara formations, the latter restricted to the graben. The interpretation of available gravity data and a seismic line indicates that the main fault has a variable dip slip component, defining two deeper portions within the graben, in which the sedimentary column can reach thicknesses of up to 2 km. Regarding to the stratigraphy of Araripe Basin in the study area, the sedimentary package includes three distinct tectonosequences. The Paleozoic Syneclisis Tectonosequence is composed by the Mauriti Formation, deposited by a braided fluvial system. The Jurassic Tectonosequence, whose tectonic setting is still debatable (initial stage of the Neocomian rift, or a pre-rift syneclisis ?), is represented by the Brejo Santo Formation, originated in a distal floodplain related to ephemeral drainages. The Rift Tectonosequence, of neocomian age, includes the Missão Velha Formation, whose lower section is related to a braided to meandering fluvial system, outlining the Rift Initiation Tectonic Systems Tract. The upper section of the Missão Velha Formation is separated from the latter by a major unconformity. This interval was originated by a braided fluvial system, overlain by the Abaiara Formation, a deltaic system fed by a meandering fluvial system. Both sections correspond to the Rift Climax Tectonic Systems Tract. In the area, NE-trending normal to oblique faults are associated with NW transfer faults, while ENE to E-W faults display dominant strike slip kinematics. Both NE and E-W fault sets exhibit clear heritage from the basement structures (in particular, shear zones), which must have been reactivated during the eocretaceous rifting. Faults with EW trends display a dominant sinistral shear sense, commonly found along reactivated segments of the Patos Lineament and satellyte structures. Usually subordinate, dextral directional movements, occur in faults striking NNW to NE. Within this framework bearing to the Palestina Graben, classical models with orthogonal extension or pull-apart style deserve some caution in their application. The Palestina Graben is not limited, in its extremeties, by E-W transcurrent zones (as it should be in the case of the pull-apart geometry), suggesting a model close to the classic style of orthogonal opening. At the same time, others, adjacent depocenters (like the Abaiara-Jenipapeiro semi-graben) display a transtensional style. The control by the basement structures explains such differences

Aplicação da modelagem estrutural computacional direta na análise da geometria de falhas: exemplo da falha de Baixa Grande (Bacia Potiguar - NE do Brasil)

The Baixa grande fault is located on the edge of the S-SW Potiguar Rift. It limits the south part of Umbuzeiro Graben and the Apodi Graben. Although a number of studies have associated the complex deformation styles in the hanging wall of the Baixa Grande Fault with geometry and displacement variations, none have applied the modern computational techniques such as geometrical and kinematic validations to address this problem. This work proposes a geometric analysis of the Baixa Fault using seismic interpretation. The interpretation was made on 3D seismic data of the Baixa Grande fault using the software OpendTect (dGB Earth Sciences). It was also used direct structural modeling, such as Analog Direct Modeling know as Folding Vectors and, 2D and 3D Direct Computational Modeling. The Folding Vectors Modeling presented great similarity with the conventional structural seismic interpretations of the Baixa Grande Fault, thus, the conventional interpretation was validated geometrically. The 2D direct computational modeling was made on some sections of the 3D data of the Baixa Grande Fault on software Move (Midland Valley Ltd) using the horizon modeling tool. The modeling confirms the influence of fault geometry on the hanging wall. The Baixa Grande Fault ramp-flat-ramp geometry generates synform on the concave segments of the fault and antiform in the convex segments. On the fault region that does not have segments angle change, the beds are dislocated without deformation, and on the listric faults occur rollover. On the direct 3D computational modeling, structural attributes were obtained as horizons on the hanging wall of the main fault, after the simulation of several levels of deformation along the fault. The occurrence of structures that indicates shortening in this modeling, also indicates that the antiforms on the Baixa Grande Fault were influenced by fault geometry

Evidências da herança geotectônica pré-cambriana na geração da barcia potiguar: um estudo geofísico multdisciplinar

The 3D gravity modeling of the Potiguar rift basin consisted of a digital processing of gravity and aeromagnetic data, subsidized by the results of Euler deconvolution of gravity and magnetic data and the interpretation of seismic lines and wells descriptions. The gravity database is a compilation of independent geophysical surveys conducted by several universities, research institutions and governmental agencies. The aeromagnetic data are from the Bacia Potiguar and Plataforma Continental do Nordeste projects, obtained from the Brazilian Petroleum Agency (ANP). The solutions of the Euler Deconvolution allowed the analysis of the behavior of the rift main limits. While the integrated interpretation of seismic lines provided the delimitating horizons of the sedimentary formations and the basement top. The integration of these data allowed a 3D gravity modeling of basement topography, allowing the identification of a series of internal structures of the Potiguar rift, as well intra-basement structures without the gravity effect of the rift. The proposed inversion procedure of the gravity data allowed to identify the main structural features of the Potiguar rift, elongated in the NE-SW direction, and its southern and eastern faulted edges, where the sedimentary infill reachs thicknesses up to 5500 m. The southern boundary is marked by the Apodi and Baixa Grande faults. These faults seem to be a single NW-SE oriented fault with a strong bend to NE-SW direction. In addition, the eastern boundary of the rift is conditioned by the NE-SW trending Carnaubais fault system. It was also observed NW-SE oriented faults, which acted as transfer faults to the extensional efforts during the basin formation. In the central part of the residual anomaly map without the gravity effect of the rift stands out a NW-SE trending gravity high, corresponding to the Orós-Jaguaribe belt lithotypes. We also observe a gravity maximum parallel to the Carnaubais fault system. This anomaly is aligned to the eastern limit of the rift and reflects the contact of different crustal blocks, limited by the eastern ward counterpart of the Portalegre Shear Zone

Mapa dos programas sociais: transferência de renda e dinâmicas sociais no Rio Grande do Norte (2000-2007)

The question of evaluating the fight against poverty in a given society is very complex task, considering the range of factors that permeate, such as education, culture and economy itself. Come hence the relevance of the theme and its constant presence in discussions on the fruits of public policies, institutional structure and economic development which are the guiding elements of this work, and noted that seeks to highlight the social demographics and most important, the most significant trends and issues pertaining to her. The assessment was initially made in all the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte doing a verticalilzação to the municipalities Caicó, Pau dos Ferros, Ipueira and Taboleiro Grande. Highlighting the role of a social policy through government programs, such as the Bolsa Familia Program (PBF), which creates the possibility of changes in the socio demographic profile given the importance that the action of this public policy has in shaping the regional economic reality As well as social programs and actions of the government here reported that generate mobility of people and new social demands, such as rural retirements, the benefit of continuing provision (BPC), the Program for the Eradication of Child Labor (PETI) that put on the market of population living on the margins of various forms of consumption. Accordingly, the socio economic profile of the state shows a significant improvement in their social indicators, vital education and redistribution of income, due to the significant improvement in life expectancy in the fall of school drop-out rate and the drop in indicators of Proportion Poor and destitute of the state. Where the fall in the proportion of poor and indigent is strongly associated with an increase in income, from social programs. With this transfer and redistribution of income can be gauged that occurs a strengthening of local economies and an engagement of families with the conditionalities of social programs and PETI Bolsa Familia. Our research concludes that simply raising the rents caused by transfers, presents relevant impacts on the education of young people in beneficiary families. There is no doubt that the programs of transfer income, no facing the social field, representing a mechanism to decrease the most perverse ills of poverty, social and economic inequality that is hungry. For a significant portion of the Brazilian population living below the poverty line, programs for the transfer of income are expressed directly in improving the material conditions of life and indirectly in improving self-esteem of women and all family members receiving encouraging yet the integration family. Experiments have shown that improvements in health and nutrition can be obtained through the implementation of adequate social policies like the programs of transfer income, while social inclusion and economic does not become full

De baixo para cima: implicações socioespaciais da transferência da feira livre na (re)produção do espaço urbano de Nova Cruz-RN (1991-2010)

The present work is about the reproduction of the urban area of Nova Cruz RN, with the objective of analyzing the social and spatial implications of the relocation of the main street market in the city from 1991 on. Nowadays, the city of Nova Cruz takes over importance in the potiguar social and spatial scenario due to its condition of central city which is practiced for decades in Potiguar Agreste Microregion. Beginning with its formation process connected with traveler‟s hostel which assisted the activity of cattle transportation, further in time by the golden era of cotton production in its territory, it was noticed that its importance in relation with the nearby towns has been happening differently throughout time. From the year 1991 on, the town of Nova Cruz has gone through a territory restructuring of its urban area due to the relocation of the open market from Downtown neighborhood to São Sebastião neighborhood. Such territorial movement resulted in a reformation of the town‟s urban space, promoting in both neighborhoods urban growth and the expansion of commercial activity associated with the migration of the commercial center of the city. The transference of the commercial area has caused these processes through the new uses of the land towards the São Sebastião region, it has also caused a decrease in market value of the downtown area as a result of the breakdown of previous existing business activities, their service contribution and the citizen migration, establishing a space and socioeconomic portrait in the neighborhood. From this context, our analysis seeks to understand the social and spatial impacts occurred in Downtown neighborhood, the way in which the production and reproduction of the urban space in São Sebastião neighborhood and the implications resulted from the actions of the administrative power in restructuring of the urban space of Nova Cruz. In order to do so, a bibliographical research was used to compose our theoretic-conceptual mark, discussing the matter with authors such as Roberto Lobato Corrêa, Ana Fani, Milton Santos, Manuel Castells e Heri Lefvbre, among others, discussing on the subject of urban analysis, the concepts of urban space and the process of reproduction of the urban space. A field research was utilized in our area of study by means of primary data gathering through interviews, questionnaire and photographic register. Secondary data gathering was also obtained by means of bibliographical and documental research related to our study object. By these means, it was sought to contribute to the understanding of the urban space through its production and reproduction based upon the discovery of social and spatial practices

O bibliotecário como mediador no processo de transferência da informação para pessoas com deficiência visual

MAIA, Maria Aniolly Queiroz et al. O bibliotecário como mediador no processo de transferência da informação para pessoas com deficiência visual. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE BIBLIOTECONOMIA, 24., DOCUMENTAÇÃO E CIÊNCIA DA INFORMAÇÃO, 2011, Maceió. Anais... Maceió: CBBD, 2011

Sistemas de gerenciamento de bibliotecas: riscos decorrentes do processo de migração de dados

This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units