Física estatística aplicada a sistemas sociais através do estudo de redes complexas

In this work a study of social networks based on analysis of family names is presented. A basic approach to the mathematical formalism of graphs is developed and then main theoretical models for complex networks are presented aiming to support the analysis of surnames networks models. These, in turn, are worked so as to be drawn leading quantities, such as aggregation coefficient, minimum average path length and connectivity distribution. Based on these quantities, it can be stated that surnames networks are an example of complex network, showing important features such as preferential attachment and small-world character

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Crescimento inicial e morfologia foliar em plantas de Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth. Em função do manejo microbiano, sob estresse salino

The sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth.) is an endemic species of the Caatinga biome, considered tolerant to salt and water stress. The process of salinization of soil and groundwater and surface water is one of the most important problems of environmental degradation, with its harmful effects being more pronounced in the areas of arid and semiarid regions, and rapidly growing in many parts of the globe, causing problems of the major crop yield. Organic conditioners as barnyard manure, and rice hulls can contribute to reducing the PST, possibly due to the release of CO2 and the production of organic acids during the decomposition of organic matter, and act as sources of calcium and magnesium and inhibit the availability sodium. The intimate association of mycorrhizae and beneficial to plants results in increased uptake of water and nutrients by plants, especially phosphorus, due to their low mobility in soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the initial growth of thrush seedlings under inoculation with mycorrhizal fungi and fertilized with manure corral and irrigated with water of different salinity levels. The experiment was conducted in greenhouse conditions of vegetation on the premises of the Agricultural School of Jundiaí - UFRN, Campus Macaíba. The adopted statistical design was randomized composed of twelve treatments - three substrates (sterile soil, manure and FMA), four salinity levels (0.2, 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 dS m-1 ) and five repetitions, totaling sixty experimental units. The results indicate that inoculation with mycorrhizal fungi own contributions to the growth of plants, especially in roots and shoots, which suggests that its application is beneficial in establishing thrush plants in natural conditions, with poor soil in P. Levels salinity caused no effects with statistical significance in plant development, indicating Sabia resistance to it.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Colônia agrícola Sinimbú: entre a regularidade do espaço projetado e os violentos confrontos do espaço vivido (Rio Grande do Norte, 1850-1880)

In 1878, at the province of Rio Grande do Norte, between Ceará-Mirim and Extremoz, was founded the Agricultural Colony of Sinimbú. On this location, about 6,600 freed men and women had gathered. They were not only fleeing from the terrible 1877 drought but also encouraged by the promise of accessing basic necessities, i.e. housing and medical assistance, upon work, as required by local and central representatives of power. However, the migrants faced otherwise reality, since conditions within the agricultural facility were of shortage and violence, as denounced on the presidential reports of that time. This work aims at analyzing the conflicts that took place at the Sinimbú Colony, while it seeks to emphasize how the tensions and interests of both local elite and central government representatives relate to the opening and closure of this space, on a context where the debate on the control over freed poor workers was on the rise. Thus, we intend to demonstrate that on the one hand, institutionalized places provided the native freed a sense of work guided by the discipline of the body, control of time and arrangement of space. On the other hand, unlike forms of resistance enacted by freed working men and women undergoing the rearranging process of labor world cannot be disregarded.

Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.