Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

A descentralização das políticas de desenvolvimento rural: uma análise da experiência do Rio Grande do Norte

MATOS FILHO, João. A descentralização das Políticas de desenvolvimento rural - uma análise da experiência do Rio Grande do Norte. 2002. 259f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Econômicas)– Instituto de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 2002.

O processo de acumulação na economia política clássica: uma interpretação não convencional a partir da leitura dos ricos detalhes comumente inexplorados

LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de ; Macedo, Luziene Dantas de ; SILVA,Marconi Gomes da ; BEZERRA, Márcia Maria de Oliveira ; PEREIRA, W. E. N. . O processo de acumulação na economia política clássica: uma interpretação não-convencional a partir da leitura dos ricos detalhes comumente inexplorados. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política, 14., 2009, São Paulo. Anais... São Paulo, 2009.

A formação e o desenvolvimento de arranjos cooperativos sob a ótica da imersão social e da economia dos custos de transação: um estrudo de caso na Coopercam e na Unipesca

The current study analyzes the birth and development of two strategic alliances established between shrimp producers in Rio Grande do Norte: the Unipesca and the Coopercam. To achieve this aim, two approaches which, at first sight, could be considered contradictory were used: the Transactional Costs Economy and Embeddedness. The first approach is fundamentally based in the studies of Williamson (1985; 1991; 1996; 1999; 2000; 2002). Embededness, on the other hand, went through the review of a series of authors, such as Burt (1992), Granovetter (1973; 1985), Uzzi (1997), Gulati (1994; 1995; 1997; 1998; 1999; 2000), Nielsen (2005), Ring (2002), Ring and Van de Ven (1994), Zafirovski (2002), among others. To analyze the birth and development of the cooperatives in this study, Gulati s work (1998) was used. This study shows the steps to be studied for a better comprehension of an alliance: the decision of starting an alliance and the choice of the partners, the decision about the governance structure, the evolution of the alliance and the development of the companies which established this partnership. To carry this study out, a study case accordingly to Yin s proposal (2001) was adopted. Semi-structured interviews with pre-defined plots were conducted in two phases: in the beginning of 2006 and in the beginning of 2007. The subjects from the research were, in 2006, representative members of the main associations and corporations, besides the shrimp producers from the state, when the context of the activity was set. In the second phase, in 2007, representative members from the two cooperatives that were listed above were interviewed the president from Coopercam and the marketing manager from Unipesca. Besides these two members, directors from two important organizations in each of these cooperatives were also interviewed, giving out the necessary information for the research. Secondary data was also collected from the Brazilian Association of Crab producers website, as well as from news from important newspapers in RN, such as Tribuna do Norte. The primary data was analyzed in terms of quality, accordingly to the documental analysis technique. Thus, through the data that was collected, it can be concluded that the reasons that motivated the companies to cooperate can be explained in terms of the transactional costs economy. However, the choice of partners is more connected to aspects approached by the social embededness. When aspects related to development and evolution were analyzed, it could be seen that both aspects from TCE and Embededness were vital to explain the development of the cooperatives mentioned

Caracterização da economia solidária à luz do ambiente isonômico de guerreiro ramos: um estudo no grupo mulheres decididas a vencer

The Solidary Economy is an area that has shown unusual traits to what is preached in the traditional economic organizations, even organizations that have very similar principles, as some cooperatives. This trait is approaching the concept of isonomy proposed by Ramos (1989). Given this context, and the notion that the isonomy is like a ideal type, the objective this work was to evidence particulars of isonomic environment the in economic and solidarity experiences, taking as an empirical research area the Grupo de Mulheres Decididas a Vencer, considered a solidary economic enterprise. For this, we used the descriptive-exploratory research of qualitative nature, where the object of such research is the know enterprise, therefore, also characterized as a case study, which were taken as research subjects six associates, they being the most active in the enterprise. From the five categories that characterize isonomy - minimum standards prescribing, self-gratifying activity, activities undertaken as a vocation, wide system of making decision and primaries interpersonal relations - and from the traits of a solidary economic enterprise the data analysis was built, through content analysis, specifically the categorial analysis. Given this context and reality in which it is Grupo de Mulheres Decididas a Vencer, with minimal rules and procedures for conducting activities, comparing them to a therapy, women choosing to insert in that environment, faced with a democratic space and unfettered bureaucracy in professional interpersonal relationships, in others words, an organizational space where they were shown signs of substantive rationality was possible to conclude that the Group will share experiences and characteristics of isonomy. This disclosure meets the multidimensional social that presupposes Paraecomomic Paradigm, enabling man to enter in different social environments of the economy in order to search for self-actualization

Economia solidária e relações de gênero na agricultura familiar: o caso do grupo produtivo mulheres decididas a vencer

The Women s experiences in the private sphere under the work s field changes the family relationship allowing them more freedom, autonomy and independence. The inequalities, socially built, homemade women s obligations results in discrimination, difficult to insert and recovery on female s job in a job s market, including low salary if compared with men s and difficult to services access in addiction a difficult daily life and in domestic sphere. The women s organisation in productive groups or economically solidary enterprises (ESE) torn possible the social economically organisations and politicians to promote deep changes in a domestically e socially relationship, positioning, for example, women s in publics areas and in the rout of emancipation. The objective of this search are understand men and women relationship in the family agriculture s field starts insert women in economically solidary enterprises (ESE) on Mulunguzinho s settlement (Mossoró/RN). The theoretical framework is inspirited Economical Solidary concept kind division s job and women s empowerment. This search had a qualitative character and exploration through case s study on Mulheres decididas a vencer s group. The secondary information was create through theoretical framework and information collected through semi-structured interviews based in interviews applied for women and yours respective husbands by criterion for women participation on productive activities of beekeeping culture of goat and sheep. This study turns possible conclude that the women s participations in productive groups in solidary economical change significantly their life and their family life. The group s organisations process, the training was received, the collective production, the marketing and the mobilized participation to move it all was fundamental for women share with their families partners some homemade and take care with the children. This finding confirm a different aspect not economical in solidary economy overcoming the monetary value in associative relationship observing principally individuals well-being and the concern with the form of reproduction this way of life in the associated

José Lins do Rego e a modernização da economia açucareira

Analysis of the northeastern sugar economy insertion on the modernization process of these economy based on the José Lins do Rego literary Discourse. In order to do so, there were used the literary works Fogo Morto, Menino de Engenho, Bangüê and Usina as study objects. Throughout the prosecution of a exploratory and documental bibliographic research it was identified that, in the cited literary works, there are three specialties corresponding to the main scenarios of the plots, the Santa Fé and Santa Rosa mills and the Bom Jesus mill factory. We have conceived the mills as main charachters, since all stories deployment corresponds to the other charachters reactions to the many forms that the specialties are, or not, affected by the modernization. Therefore, the narratives in Fogo Morto, Menino de Engenho, Bangüê and Usina reaffirm the viability of the literary discourse application as a source for the construction of the sociological interpretation of the northeastern sugar economy process of modernization in the end of 19th century and beginning of the 20th century

A previdência rural universalista e a sua relevância na economia dos municípios do Rio Grande do Norte

This study deals with the rural social security Universalist established by the Constitution of 1988 and its importance in the economy of the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte. In this context, the study seeks to satisfy two important criteria that guide the selection of objects of social science research: a consideration of issues that have relevance to the real world and the intention to make the contribution to the scholarly literature on theoretical and empirical aspects. The research seeks to reveal what is the economic importance of the subsystem of social security for rural municipalities in RN. The hypothesis is that the transfer of income received by beneficiaries from the rural social security tax exceeds the explicit mechanisms for most municipalities in RN, in many cases significantly, proving the importance of this policy as a mechanism for combating poverty and reducing social inequality, especially before the fragility of the federal system on the national political entity hall. The study presents theoretical cores - chapters 1-3 - and empirical - Chapter 4. The first core is about the evolution of social protection as a state policy, addressing the influential theories and typologies of the State of Social Welfare and the characteristics of the Brazilian social security model, but mainly, its rural social security subsystem, its history until universalistic model inaugurated by the Federal Constitution of 1988. The second begins with an overview of studies that have emphasized the impact of Social Security on the local economy of small municipalities, then passing data and statistics in order to gauge the socioeconomic importance of pension income in the rural municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte. To this end, the final chapter provides a comparison of the monetary value transferred by the payment of social security benefits - rural and urban - to each of the 167 municipalities in RN with the equally important sources of income in the budget of municipal entities. Apart from their own tax revenues, are objects of comparison with the value of pension benefits awarded in RN, transfer quota state relating to the municipality on the federal ICMS and the transfer on the FPM

A economia social e os estados do cooperativismo: ascensão ou declínio dos princípios do cooperativismo em empreendimentos autogestionários

Crisis in the capitalist system of production, contributes to appearance of social enterprises. In spite of, to believe these undertakings were to promote a true revolution that supply alternatives to consolidation of a socialist society, which it wasn t succeed. The cooperatives which was our object of study, get appearance in the middle of the capitalist system of production in a disorganized way, therefore, many of them Just get rich or they became true work machines and exploration of the human work. This study has like main objective: Do cooperatives have knowledge and/or they pratice rudments of the cooperativist moviment?. Get some conclusions, the cooperatives of work come promoting a decline of the rudments of the cooperativism and they don t have a knowledge about the rudments of the cooperativism and they don t pratice the same ones, instead of, the ccoperative of production comes promoting the appearance of the self-management idealism which they know the rudments of thecooperativism and they pratice the same ones

Cooperativismo sob a ótica da economia solidária e popular : algumas evidências no meio rural potiguar

Las experiencias colectivas como canales de acceso a mejores condiciones de vida, engendradas por los sectores populares y, especialmente, por las populaciones rurales, nos motivaron a la realización de esta investigación. Teniendo como unidad de análisis una cooperativa constituida por agricultores y agricultoras familiares, investigada por medio de un estudio de caso y como base teórica las concepciones de economía solidaria y popular, nuestra cuestión central fue comprender ¿cuales las prácticas adoptadas que han posibilitado su éxito? Para ello, partimos de la hipótesis de que el éxito de esas organizaciones depende de la aplicación de los principios cooperativistas, cuales sean: adhesión libre y voluntaria, democracia, participación, intercooperación, educación e información, preocupación con el entorno, autonomía e independencia; y de sus relaciones externas con el Estado y otras instituciones de apoyo. Para cumplir nuestro propósito, fueron seleccionados también algunos indicadores, una amuestra aleatoria de la población elegida y los representantes de las instituciones involucradas con la cooperativa. Siendo una investigación de carácter más cualitativa, pero usando dados cuantitativos, fueron utilizados para la coleta de los datos encuestas semi-estructuradas, cuestionarios con preguntas abiertas y cerradas, observaciones directas, registros fotográficos y análisis documentales. Los principales resultados encontrados indican que la hipótesis fue confirmada, o sea, el éxito de la cooperativa estudiada tuvo vinculación directa con la aplicación de los principios cooperativistas, con el acceso a los recursos públicos disponibles y con los apoyos de otras instituciones, generando beneficios socioeconómicos para los cooperados y externalidades positivas para el desenvolvimiento del entorno

Ação social da Rede Caritas de Empreendimentos de Economia Solidária - EES: um estudo sobre valores e dinheiro

This study seeks to analyze the relationship between values and economic practices in social actions developed by the Caritas Network northeastern in projects linked to the Solidarity Economy over the last decade. This link between economic values and practices is discussed in relation to both Weber (Economy and Society) and Simmel (The Philosophy of Money) with a treatment of the affinities between both the economic sphere and religious ethics and the forms of sociability that bring individuals into contact with the circulation of money. The research scope was comprised of businesses monitored by Caritas in four northeastern states (Pernambuco, Paraíba, Alagoas and Rio Grande do Norte where we sought investigate the influence of ethical values, religious networks, and the economic practices of associations, groups and cooperatives. The field research took place over nine months with visits to local groups in their production areas, participation in trade fairs, training, exchanges, forums and regional meetings. Through this research we saw that money, the symbol and instrument of utilitarian reason, shapes individual behavior and socialization conditions since in business practices it is permeated by religious and ethical values when confronted by their experiences, values and neoliberal practices. The data and conclusions and relates to the overall research of the regional Caritas Network, the place it occupies in the Solidarity Economy and its influence on the sociability of business

Tributação, finanças públicas e política fiscal: uma análise sob a óptica do direito e economia

In the Brazilian legal scenario, the study of taxation has traditionally been restricted to positivist analysis, concerned with investigating the formal aspects of the tax legal rule. Despite its relevance to the formation of the national doctrine of tax, such formalist tradition limits the discipline, separating it from reality and the socioeconomic context in which the Tax Law is inserted. Thus, the proposal of the dissertation is to examine the fundamentals and nature of taxation and tax legal rules from the perspective of Law and Economics (Economic Analysis of Law). For this purpose, the work initially reconnects the Tax Law and Science of Finance (or Public Finance) and Fiscal Policy, undertaking not only a legal analysis, but also economic and financial analysis of the theme. The Economics of Public Sector (or Modern Public Finance) will contribute to the research through topics such as market failures and economic theory of taxation, which are essential to an economic approach to Tax Law. The core of the work lies in the application of Law and Economics instruments in the study of taxation, analyzing the effects of tax rules on the economic system. Accordingly, the dissertation examines the fundamental assumptions that make up the Economic Analysis of Law (as the concept of economic efficiency and its relation to equity), relating them to the tax phenomenon. Due to the nature of the Brazilian legal system, any worth investigation or approach, including Law and Economics, could not pass off the Constitution. Thus, the constitutional rules will serve as a limit and a prerequisite for the application of Law and Economics on taxation, particularly the rules related to property rights, freedom, equality and legal certainty. The relationship between taxation and market failures receives prominent role, particularly due to its importance to the Law and Economics, as well as to the role that taxation plays in the correction of these failures. In addition to performing a review of taxation under the approach of Economic Analysis of Law, the research also investigates the reality of Brazilian tax system, applying the concepts developed in relevant cases and issues to the national scene, such as the relationship between taxation and development, the compliance costs of taxation, the tax evasion and the tax enforcement procedure. Given the above, it is intended to lay the groundwork for a general theory of Economic Analysis of Tax Law, contextualizing it with the Brazilian tax system

Biologia populacional comparada de duas espécies de heliconius (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) em um ambiente sazonal de floresta atlântica do nordeste brasileiro

Tropical environments often face strong seasonal variations in climate, such as alternate periods of dry and rain, that may often be important influence in the annual X the organisms lives. Here we assess how population dynamics of two butterfly species (Heliconius erato and Heliconius mepomene) respond to environmental and seasonal variations. A mark-release-recapture study carried out in an Atlantic forest reserve, 15 Km from Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, for 3 years, during the dry and rainy season, with three visits weekly done. Information such as species, wing lenght, site of capture, pollen load and phenotype (number of spots) (in H. erato only) were noted for each capture. Seasonal variation exists in capture rates of the two species, with great capture rates during the rainy season. Despite finding differences in the mean density of individuals of the two species among the different collection areas, this difference was only significant between floodplain and central areas, and no influence of seasonality was observed in the mean density between the areas. Seasonality in wing size was only observed for H. erato, with larger wings during the rainy season. Females carried larger pollen loads than males both species, but species were similar. Only males differed seasonally, with larger pollen loads during the rainy season. The distribution of the number of wing spots did not vary between the dry and rainy seasons, and the number of spots in males and females was similar. Therefore, we conclude that there was a strong influence of seasonal variation in the population dynamic of the two Heliconius species, as well as in several aspects of their biology

O papel do BNB/FNE na economia nordestina pós 1990

O presente trabalho objetiva analisar o papel do crédito vinculado às tentativas de fomentar a modernização da estrutura econômica nordestina. Tal procedimento se sustenta nos financiamentos do BNB, o qual se configura como instituição financiadora do processo de industrialização da Região Nordeste. O principal fundo à essa finalidade é o FNE. Dessa maneira avaliaremos também a importância do crédito na dinâmica de regiões periféricas como o nordeste o é. Assim, indaga-se: tais mecanismos foram relevantes para eliminar os gargalos produtivos do Nordeste através da modernização de sua economia? O direcionamento do fundo ocorreu de forma a diminuir o hiato intra-regional? A suposição do trabalho é que tais fundos configuraram-se como essenciais à economia nordestina, no entanto, insuficientes para a finalidade a qual foram criados. Usa-se uma pesquisa bibliográfica alicerçada na literatura pertinente, associada a uma análise documental, a qual permite a utilização de dados estatísticos que demonstrem o desempenho do BNB referente ao objetivo do FNE. Finalmente, nota-se que, tanto houve uma concentração no direcionamento do fundo para setores menos complexos, o que contribuiu para a manutenção estrutural da economia nordestina, como o fundo atuou de forma espacialmente imperfeita garantindo a desconcentração de apenas algumas sub-regiões