Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Transgredir para empoderar: o empoderamento das jovens mulheres pela educação

Este trabalho é a base científica, e também podemos dizer, ideológica, de um relatório solicitado pelo Parlamento Europeu à Comissão dos Direitos das Mulheres e da Igualdade dos Géneros que pretende assegurar uma educação democrática e a educação para a igualdade dos géneros. Em Setembro de 2015 este relatório foi aprovado como resolução por uma larga maioria parlamentar, apoiando a ideia da educação e do currículo como instrumentos de poder. Acredito que a educação tem um papel fundamental na mudança e que é responsável pelo desenvolvimento da personalidade e pela criação de ideias que determinam atitudes, acções e perspectivas sobre o mundo, guiando-nos na vida pessoal e influenciando as escolhas profissionais. Este trabalho foi o primeiro momento de reflexão sobre esta questão e mostra o importante papel da investigação em educação e do currículo no âmbito das políticas europeias.