Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

Wood : from the forest to the consumer

Illegal logging causes a number of environmental and social damages in countries where wood is sourced from native forests. Logging in protected areas is an act of irresponsibility that exacerbates the loss of biodiversity. In addition, uncontrolled deforestation and bushfires may aggravate climate change, not to mention the negative effects they impose on local populations, such as the impoverishment of rural communities whose livelihoods depend on forest products. Several studies show that Brazil ranks high in terms of irresponsible use of natural resources, including native wood from the Amazon. Even more worrisome is the fact that the state, despite being responsible for regulating logging activities, is one of the largest consumers of native wood, which subverts the goals of any government committed to sustainable environmental management. By monitoring the development and impacts of illegal timber production and consumption around the world, the Friends of the Amazon Network – an initiative by the Getulio Vargas Foundation with support from the British Government and the European Commission – identified a need to describe and evaluate, in a brief and instructive manner, the different mechanisms the state has available to reverse this predatory practice. One of the aspects discussed in this book is the role of civil servants in major efforts aimed at repressing illegal logging and timber production, as well as identifying products derived from these activities in order to prevent their consumption. This is the purpose of this publication, which uses detailed infographics and a journalistic approach, including interviews and true stories, to outline the complexity of Amazon timber’s chain of custody – from logging, processing and transportation to commercialization in the Brazilian market.