Fatores demográficos como determinantes da criminalidade

O artigo mostra a influência de fatores demográficos de 1980 na criminalidade de 2000. Usando dados dos municípios de São Paulo apresentaremos evidências que taxa de fecundidade, porcentagem de mães adolescentes, porcentagem de crianças criadas sem o pai são fatores relevantes para explicar a variação de crimes violentos e crimes contra o patrimônio nos municípios paulistas

A competitive growth model with endogenous fertility

This paper investigates the interaction between endogenous fertility behavior and the distribution of income and wealth arnong farnilies in a competitive market economy. We construct a growth model in which altruistic dynasties are heterogeneous in their initial stocks of physical capital. Dynasties make choices of farnily size along with decisions about consumption and intergenerational transfers. We show that if the rate of time preference is increasing in the number of children and preferences over nurnber of children satisfy a norrnality assumption, all steady states are characterized by equality of capital stocks and consumption arnong families. We also provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness of the steady state. In order to illustrate these results, we present an example in which preferences over number of children are logarithrnic and the technology is Cobb-Douglas. For this combination of preferences and technology, there exists a unique egalitarian steady state. Moreover, the economy converges to this steady state in only one generation .

Life expectancy, educational attainment, and fertility choice

This paper explores the role of mortality as a determinant of educational attainment and fertility, both during the demographic transition and after its completion. Two main points distinguish our analysis from the previous ones. Together with the investments of parents in the human capital of children, traditional in the fertility literature, we introduce investments of adult individuals (parents) in their own education, which ultimately determines productivity in both the goods and household sectors. Second, we let adult longevity affect the way parents value each individual child. Increases in adult longevity or reductions in child mortality eventually raise the investments in adult education. Together with the higher utility derived from each child, this tilts the quality-quantity trade off towards less and better educated children, and increases the growth rate of the economy. This setup can explain both the demographic transition and the recent behavior of fertility in “post-transition” countries. Evidence from historical experiences of demographic transition, and from the recent behavior of fertility, education, and growth generally supports the predictions of the model.