Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

A comment on "Rational learning lead to nash equilibrium" by professors Ehud Kalai and Ehud Lehrer

Kalai and Lebrer (93a, b) have recently show that for the case of infinitely repeated games, a coordination assumption on beliefs and optimal strategies ensures convergence to Nash equilibrium. In this paper, we show that for the case of repeated games with long (but finite) horizon, their condition does not imply approximate Nash equilibrium play. Recently Kalai and Lehrer (93a, b) proved that a coordination assumption on beliefs and optimal strategies, ensures that pIayers of an infinitely repeated game eventually pIay 'E-close" to an E-Nash equilibrium. Their coordination assumption requires that if players believes that certain set of outcomes have positive probability then it must be the case that this set of outcomes have, in fact, positive probability. This coordination assumption is called absolute continuity. For the case of finitely repeated games, the absolute continuity assumption is a quite innocuous assumption that just ensures that pIayers' can revise their priors by Bayes' Law. However, for the case of infinitely repeated games, the absolute continuity assumption is a stronger requirement because it also refers to events that can never be observed in finite time.

A educação à distância e suas implicações no ensino superior

This research was as principal interest to verify the motives the prominence of crescent outstanding of distance education in brazilian higher education. To make real the study were used the bibliographical and field researches. The bibliographical informations permitted to conclude that the total success of distance education in Brazil strikes against two obstacles: the digital exclusion and illiteracy. These, in turn, have created another problem called today digital illiteracy. Although there are those limitations, by the data about distance education in the country, it is patent that this modality of education is gaining more and more space in brazilian educational process. It has to detach that the greatest concentration of distance courses accredited in Brazil occurs in higher education. Today, distance courses at this level in the country are authorized in sequential, graduation, specialization, master and doctorate areas. The field research led to confirm practically all suppositions about the increase of distance education in higher education, proposed in anticipation. The flexibility that makes possible the transmission of knowledge at any place and time and the new technologies, chiefly the Internet, were the factors that more impelled the increase of distance education in brazilian higher teaching. Meanwhile, the quality improving of the courses was the less significative in respect to the growth of distance education it the higher level in Brazil. But, this fact does not signify that the distance higher courses have not quality. On the contrary, the courses are ministered by professionals of confirmed competence. What can still legitimize the presence of quality in distance higher teaching is its exponential growth in the country. Moreover, the importance attributed to the pedagogical project well planned in distance higher courses demonstrates the interest by excellence in the distance learning. Certainly, when a pedagogical project is well delineated, at any level of distance teaching, the trend of quality is perfect itself.

Trajetórias De Acumulação De Capacidades Inovadoras, Mecanismos De Aprendizagem E Fatores Organizacionais Relativos A Atividades Em Gestão De Projetos: Estudo De Caso Comparativo Inter-Empresarial Na Indústria De Bens De Capital E De Celulose E Papel No Brasil

Over the last 40 years there has been a profusion of studies about the ccumulation of technological capacities in firms from developing economies. However, there remain few studies that examine, on a combined basis, the relationship among: the trajectories of technological capacities accumulation; the underlying learning mechanisms; and, the implications of organizational factors for these two variables. Still scarcer are the studies that examine the relationship among these variables along time and based on a comparative case study. This dissertation examines the relationship among the trajectory of accumulation of innovative capacities in complex project management, the learning mechanisms underlying these technological capacities and the intra-organizational factors that influence these learning echanisms. That set of relationships is examined through a comparative and a long-term (1988-2008) case study in a capital goods firm (for the pulp and paper industry) and a pulp mill in Brazil. Based on first-hand quantitative and qualitative empiric evidence, gathered through extensive field research, this dissertation found: 1. Both firms accumulated innovative capacity in project management at the international frontier level (Level 6). However, there was variability between the firms in terms of the nature and speed of accumulation of those capacities. It was also observed that, at this level of innovation, the innovative capacities of both firms are not confined to their organizational boundaries, but they are distributed beyond their boundaries. 2. So that these companies could accumulate those levels of innovative capacities it was necessary to manage several learning mechanisms: leveraging of external knowledge and its internalization in terms of internal apacities of the firm. In other words, as the companies accumulated more innovative levels of capacities for project management, it was necessary to manage different cycles of technological learning. 3. Further, the relationship between the ccumulation of technological capacities and learning was affected positively by intra-organizational factors, such as 'authority disposition', 'mutability of work roles' and 'intensity of internal crises', and negatively by the factor 'singularity of goals'. This dissertation revealed divergent results between firms in two of the four factors studied. These results contribute to advance our understanding of the complexity and variability involved in the process of accumulation of innovative capacities in firms from developing economies. This highlights the growing importance of the organizational and the human resource dimensions of innovation and technological capacity as the company approaches the international frontier. The results suggest to managers that: (i) the good performance in project management in the two firms studied did not occur simply as a result of the pulp and paper Brazilian industry growth, rather as a result of the deliberate construction and accumulation of the capacities through an intensive and coordinated cyclical process of technological learning, (ii) to develop innovative capabilities in project management, besides looking for learning mechanisms they should also look at the organizational factors that influence the learning mechanisms directly, (iii) performance of pulp mill¿s projects is better when projects are implemented together with technology suppliers than when performed only by the mill. This dissertation concludes that capital goods firms have been having a fundamental role for the innovative capabilities accumulation in project management of pulp mills in Brazil (and vice-versa) for a long time. This contradicts some authors' propositions that affirm that: a) equipment suppliers for the pulp and paper industry have been creating little, if any, development of processes or engineering projects in Brazil; b) firms in the pulp and paper industry have little capacity for machinery and equipments projects only taking place in few technological activities, being internal or external to the firm. Finally, some studies are proposed for future research.

Gestão do conhecimento em agências do Banco do Brasil S. A.: estudo de caso em filiais localizadas na cidade de Curitiba, Estado do Paraná.

In this text we tried to make a critic analysis of knowledge management, by means of case studies about some branches of Banco do Brasil S.A., trying to identify the presence or absence of elements that characterize the environmental working place focused on a continuous learning. The research was taken at several branches of Banco do Brasil S.A. in Curitiba ¿ State of Paraná ¿ Brasil. We asked the managers to answer the questions as they represent the leadership in every branch. The critic points that interfere positive or negatively the daily activities on knowledge management were examined, such as: time, administration of the branches, market changings, information systems, knowledge generation and transmission, besides the internal and external standard rules. The conclusion is that knowledge management in the researched branches is still in its beginning. Although there is an advanced technical infra structure and the managers have demonstrated some knowledge on this subject and are aware of its .importance for the company. The knowledge management is visualized more as an auxiliary technology for the updated models than a new way of managing the organization. The most important revolution expected - to modify the way of thinking and acting of the employees - is still in its starting point.

Imperfectly credible disinflation under endogenous time-ependent pricing

The real effects of an imperfectly credible disinflation depend critically on the extent of price rigidity. Therefore, the study of how policymakers’ credibility affects the outcome of an announced disinflation should not be dissociated from the analysis of the determinants of the frequency of price adjustments. In this paper we examine how credibility affects the outcome of a disinflation in a model with endogenous timedependent pricing rules. Both the initial degree of price ridigity, calculated optimally, and, more notably, the changes in contract length during disinflation play an important role in the explanation of the effects of imperfect credibility. We initially evaluate the costs of disinflation in a setup where credibility is exogenous, and then allow agents to use Bayes rule to update beliefs about the “type” of monetary authority that they face. In both cases, the interaction between the endogeneity of time-dependent rules and imperfect credibility increases the output costs of disinflation, but the pattern of the output path is more realistic in the case with learning.

Structural analysis of the place of wine in Brazil

With the constant decrease of the wine consumption in traditional winemaking countries, more and more Brazil is seen as an appealing market. But the country also pretends to become an international player of winemaking in its own right. Both the participants of the Brazilian wine industry and the foreigners trying to get advantage of this promising market are facing new challenges to develop the consumption of wine in the world’s fifth largest country. Among all the possible actions to be taken in that sense, it also is worth taking time for a collective thought on the place of wine in the country, as well as the factors that shape it. What are these factors, which ones really make the difference, and what is their respective impact on the evolution of the place of wine in the country? After drawing the big picture of the wine market situation, this thesis tries to identify the levers of the evolution of the place of wine in Brazil. Using the tools of prospective, it aims at putting into perspective the different driving forces that influence its development, and in particular the relative influence of the political drivers. This paper also intends to be a first step of a prospective study as it constitutes a solid base for scenario planning. This paper is divided in five chapters starting with “introduction”, followed by chapter 2 “Theoretical framework”. Chapter 3 is “Methodology”, followed by chapter 4 “Description and analysis of the results”. Finally the results are discussed and concluded in the last part “Conclusions and implications for future studies”.

O mobralense e o domínio do léxico

Na presente pesquisa de campo, abordou-se, primeir~ mente, o estudo da comunicação entre os homens por códigos verbais, as relações entre a linguagem e o pensamento e a visão do mundo percebida pelo individuo ou pela comunidade através do uso da lin guagem. A seguir examinou-se o sistema escola, comprometido com a transmissão de uma determinada cosmovisão, caracteristica de uma nacionalidade dada, e/ou com a manutenção de valores e modos de vi da que identificam uma certa comunidade. As considerações feitas justificam a importância dada à alfabetização e aos programas de alfabetização em massa nos paises em desenvolvimento, c omo o Brasil. Levando-se em conta estas colocações, planejou-se investigar o vocabulário corrente de trinta e sete alunos do MOBRAL, em Nova Friburgo, relacionando-o com os indices sociais dos informantes (procedência, anos de vida na área geográfica considerada, idade, sexo e profissão), com as variáres temáticas (alimentação, saúde/ doença, profissão/afazeres, expectativas de vida, lembranças de vi da, lazer/diversões), escolhidas após sondagem prévia das condições de vida e dos interesses dos informantes, e com as variáveis lingüisticas, ou seja, as classes de palavras. Neste estudo explQ ratório, propôs-se ainda verificar em que medida o material escri to dos livros de leitura continuada do MOBRAL e dos jornais clas se A (Jornal do Brasil) e C (O Dia e Oltima Hora) se relacionam com o vocabulário utilizado pelos alunos do MOBRAL, em Nova Fribur go. Visando ao levantamento do vocabulário dos entrevistados,foram gravadas cinqüenta falas de acordo com a metodologia utilizada em trabalhos de natureza sociolingüistica . Os dados obtidos neste "corpus" gravado foram anali sados quantitativamente, aplicando-se um programa computacional cQ nhecido como SPSS. O estudo das rel ações entre as variáveis(classi ficação morfológica, tema, idade, sexo, profissão) conduziu à for mação de tabelas de contingência multivariada . A análise dos resultados ofereceu algumas conclusões como o uso constante de substantivos e verbos nas elocuções . Embora se tenha introduzido a técnica de captar as palavras disponíveis durante as entrevistas, não foi alterado o número de substan I tivos nesta pesquisa, porque os informantes não indicaram o nome das coisas isoladamente, fizeram-no por enunciados completos. Ba seando-se neste resultado, propuseram-se algumas sugestões de in teresse pedagógico para utilização do MOBRAL: a primeira -- nao en fatizar os nomes (processo estático da língua) em detrimento dos verkos (processo dinâmico); a segunda -- o uso de frases nas estra tégias de alfabetização. No exame das relações entre as variáveis, a grande variação detectada deveu-se ao tema. Quando se investigou a variedade dos vocábulos usa dos pelos entrevistados em Nova Friburgo, observou-se que das 11.337 ocorrências de substantivos, encontraram-se 2.222 substanti vos diferentes e 1.590 vocábulos; das 17.604 ocorrências de verbos, encontraram-se 2.365 verbos diferentes e 588 vocábulos; das 1.980 ocorrências de adjetivo~, encontraram-se 660 adjetivos diferentes e 488 vocábulos. Concluiu-se que o vocabulário deste grupo pode ser diferente dos de outras áreas, dos de outras cfu~adas sociais inse ridas em outros contextos, mas não é limitado, nem re stri to.Expre~ sa a visão e a expectativa do mundo que os cerca. Outra recomendação ao MOBRAL: a escolha das palavras a ensinar seria colhida nas diversas comunidades, onde funcionam as classes de alfabetização e a motivação para sua seleção deveria estar ligada às necessidades cotidianas dos adultos com a palavra geradora integrada em frases.

Avaliação da aprendizagem no contexto socio-político educacional da Paraíba

O reconhecimento da educação escolar como uma mediação imprescindível para uma maior e mais qualitativa inserção do indivíduo no âmbito político, social, cultural e econômico; e da avaliação da aprendizagem como um dos elementos pedagógicos de maior peso no fenômeno fracasso escolar e impeditivo de tal inserção, constituem-se nos fatores nucleares a orientar o presente estudo. Objetivamos através da problematização da educação escolar e do fracasso escolar, discutir e redimensionar o sentido e a prática avaliativa a partir dos trabalhos coletivos desenvolvidos durante o Planejamento, numa escola pública de 1 º e 2º graus na cidade de Patos, Paraíba. Introduzimos a este estudo com uma explanação geral sobre os objetivos propostos, complementados e aprofundados a partir do referencial teórico de alguns estudos sobre a relação escola-sociedade e sobre a avaliação. Consideramos importante descrever os momentos vivenciados durante o desenrolar da pesquisa, seja no que se refere aos trabalhos desenvolvidos junto ao corpo docente, como também aos problemas surgidos no cotidiano escolar; tentamos evidenciá-los a partir da conjuntura político-social e sindical predominante naquele momento no presente contexto. Traçamos os caminhos percorridos no trabalho de campo, pormenorizando acerca da amostra pesquisada, dos procedimentos, estratégias e instrumentos utilizados dentro de um processo que prioriza os trabalhos coletivos e a representação de professores e alunos sobre o objeto de estudo, a avaliação. Os dados resultantes destes procedimentos são tratados e analisados a partir da configuração de algumas categorias, e à luz de alguns pressupostos teóricos e de pesquisas desenvolvidas em outros contextos. Retomamos, enfim, às indagações iniciais, evidenciando a concreticidade e as vias de mudança dessa escola a partir dos trabalhos coletivos ora desenvolvidos, apontando caminhos possíveis.

Child labor and learning

This paper investigates the impact of working while in school on learning outcomes through the use of a unique micro panel dataset of Brazilian students. The potential endogeneity is addressed through the use of di erence-in-di erence and instrumental variable estimators. A negative e ect of working on learning outcomes in both math and Portuguese is found. The e ects of child work range from 3% to 8% of a standard deviation decline in test score which represents a loss of about a quarter to a half of a year of learning on average. We also explore the minimum legal age to entry in the labor market to induce an exogenous variation in child labor status. The results reinforce the detrimental e ects of child labor on learning. Additionally, it is found that this e ect is likely due to the interference of work with the time kids can devote to school and school work.

A case study approach to classroom experiential learning of problem structuring methods

The proposed research aims at consolidating two years of practical experience in developing a classroom experiential learning pedagogic approach for the problem structuring methods (PSMs) of operational research. The results will be prepared as papers to be submitted, respectively, to the Brazilian ISSS-sponsored system theory conference in São Paulo, and to JORS. These two papers follow the submission (in 2004) of one related paper to JORS which is about to be resubmitted following certain revisions. This first paper draws from the PSM and experiential learning literatures in order to introduce a basic foundation upon which a pedagogic framework for experiential learning of PSMs may be built. It forms, in other words, an integral part of my research in this area. By September, the area of pedagogic approaches to PSM learning will have received its first official attention - at the UK OR Society conference. My research and paper production during July-December, therefore, coincide with an important time in this area, enabling me to form part of the small cohort of published researchers creating the foundations upon which future pedagogic research will build. On the institutional level, such pioneering work also raises the national and international profile of FGVEAESP, making it a reference for future researchers in this area.

Histórias de empreendedores: significados, narrativas e artefatos

Compreender o processo de significação e ressignificação que o empreendedor atribui ao novo negócio através das etapas de busca, percepção e interpretação propostas por Daft e Weick (1984) ao longo do tempo. Design/metodologia/abordagem: Sob uma perspectiva interpretativista, este trabalho se valeu de abordagens qualitativas. Foram utilizadas téc nicas de análise de narrativas, antenarrativas e análise de dados qualitativos sobre entrevistas realizadas com 11 empreendedores digitais em dois momentos diferentes. Descobertas: as análises sugerem que o empreendedor ressignifica seu negócio com o passar do tempo, provavelmente em função do nível de sucesso do empreendimento. Esta pesquisa corrobora a proposição de Daft & Weick (1984) acerca da existência de um processo cíclico de busca, interpretação e ação que levaria a um contínuo de ressignificações. Implicações da pesquisa: Para os empreendedores (practioners), este trabalho lança luz sobre as possibilidades de uso das narrativas como recursos para influência e disseminação de significados (sensegiving). Para acadêmicos, este trabalho oferece melhor conceituação do constructo ‘artefato estratégico’, além de avançar na consolidação dos métodos de análise de narrativas. Originalidade/Valor: O valor dessa pesquisa se dá em fortalecer os métodos de análise de narrativas, além de apresentar um possível caminho para capturar os elementos de ressignificação. Além disso, ao propor um framework de análise e construção de narrativas empreendedoras, este trabalho pode auxiliar pesquisadores e practioners