Basiléia II e exigência de capital para risco de crédito dos bancos no Brasil

Com a implementação do Acordo de Basiléia II no Brasil, os grandes conglomerados bancários poderão utilizar o chamado modelo IRB (Internal Ratings Based) para cômputo da parcela de risco de crédito da exigência de capital. O objetivo deste trabalho é mensurar a diferença entre o capital mínimo exigido (e, conseqüentemente, do Índice de Basiléia) calculado pela abordagem IRB em relação à regulamentação atual. Para isso, foram estimadas probabilidades de inadimplência (PD) utilizando matrizes de transição construídas a partir dos dados da Central de Risco de Crédito (SCR) do Banco Central do Brasil. Os resultados indicam aumento da exigência de capital, ao contrário do ocorrido nos países do G-10

A time-varying markov-switching model for economic growth

This paper investigates economic growth’s pattern of variation across and within countries using a Time-Varying Transition Matrix Markov-Switching Approach. The model developed follows the approach of Pritchett (2003) and explains the dynamics of growth based on a collection of different states, each of which has a sub-model and a growth pattern, by which countries oscillate over time. The transition matrix among the different states varies over time, depending on the conditioning variables of each country, with a linear dynamic for each state. We develop a generalization of the Diebold’s EM Algorithm and estimate an example model in a panel with a transition matrix conditioned on the quality of the institutions and the level of investment. We found three states of growth: stable growth, miraculous growth, and stagnation. The results show that the quality of the institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth, whereas the level of investment has varying roles in that it contributes positively in countries with high-quality institutions but is of little relevance in countries with medium- or poor-quality institutions.

Judicial system performance and economic development

The role of judicial systems in determining economic perfonnance has gained increasingly attention in recent years. Nonetheless, the literature lacks a clearly articulated framework to examine how judicial systems influence the investment and production decisions of economic agents. This paper tries to till in this gap. It examines what constitutes a well-functioning judiciary, analyzes how dysfunctional judicial systems compromise economic growth, and reviews the relevant empirical literature. It concludes with some remarks about why, despite the widespread perception that well-functioning legal and judicial systems are key to the success of market-oriented reforms in developing and transition countries, judicial refonn has lagged so much behind other reforms.

The Brazilian financial system and the green economy : alignment with sustainable development

Three studies were prepared and are presented in this document. The first, The Brazilian Financial Sector Institutional Context in the Transition to Sustainable Development looks at the legislation, regulation, and public policies aimed at socio-environmental themes related to the financial sector. The second study, Current Financing for the Green Economy in Brazil, provides an initial estimate of the financial assets already allocated to the green economy, as well as a methodological proposal for the survey and monitoring of the respective flow of assets. The third and final study looks at two important segments of the Brazilian economy and their process of transition to a greener economy: renewable energy and agriculture.