Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

The failure of early-stage technology startups in Brazil: a study about the contributing factors to the early-death of startups between 2009 and 2014 in Southeastern Brazil

This research aimed to find out which are the main factors that lead technology startups to fail. The study focused on companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil that operated between 2009 and 2014. In the beginning, a review of the literature was done to have a better understanding of basic concepts of entrepreneurship as well as modern techniques for developing entrepreneurship. Furthermore, an analysis of the entrepreneurial scenario in Brazil, with a focus on the Southeast, was also done. After this phase, the qualitative study began, in which 24 specialists from startups were interviewed and asked about which factors were crucial in leading a technology startup to fail. After analyzing the results, four main factors were identified and these factors were validated through a quantitative survey. A questionnaire was then formulated based on the answers from the respondents and distributed to founders and executives of startups, which both failed and succeeded. The questionnaire was answered by 56 companies and their answers were treated with the factor analysis statistical method to check the validity of the questionnaire. Finally, the logistical regression method was used to know the extent to which the factors led to the startups’ failure. In the end, the results obtained suggest that the most significant factor that leads technology startups in southeastern Brazil to fail are problems with interpersonal relationship between partners or investors.

Toward a venture capital-backed entrepreneurship model in Brazil

It is well documented venture capital‟s positive impact on creation and development of highly successful innovative companies worldwide. Venture capital not only provides funding to startups and SMEs (small and medium enterprises) that usually have financing gap, especially in emerging markets, but also brings a whole package of valuable resources that reduces companies‟ mortality rates. Using quantitative data obtained from an empirical survey as background, this paper discusses the role of venture capital in the success of innovative startups and SMEs, and it examines if, and to what extent, venture capitalists are supporting the entrepreneurial activity in Brazil. I focused on the portfolio companies analyzes and confirmed the hypothesis that the venture capital industry has been supporting entrepreneurship in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a venture capital‟s positive impact on economic activity, especially the capital market. Third, it became clear that venture capital-back entrepreneurship is highly concentrated in the Southeast region. And fourth, I identified that private equity expansion is also playing a key role on that dynamics. As consequence, I conclude that the venture capital (and private equity) industry has been very important to build an enormously dynamic and strong local entrepreneurial economy. Its committed capital grew 50% per year between 2005 and 2008 to achieve US$27 billion, which invested US$ 11 billion, which employs 1,400 professionals (75% with post-graduate degrees) and maintains 482 portfolio companies, mostly SMEs. In addition, venture capital-backed companies represented one third of the IPOs that occurred in Brazil between 2004 and 2008 (approximately US$15 billion).