Reality check for volatility models

Asset allocation decisions and value at risk calculations rely strongly on volatility estimates. Volatility measures such as rolling window, EWMA, GARCH and stochastic volatility are used in practice. GARCH and EWMA type models that incorporate the dynamic structure of volatility and are capable of forecasting future behavior of risk should perform better than constant, rolling window volatility models. For the same asset the model that is the ‘best’ according to some criterion can change from period to period. We use the reality check test∗ to verify if one model out-performs others over a class of re-sampled time-series data. The test is based on re-sampling the data using stationary bootstrapping. For each re-sample we check the ‘best’ model according to two criteria and analyze the distribution of the performance statistics. We compare constant volatility, EWMA and GARCH models using a quadratic utility function and a risk management measurement as comparison criteria. No model consistently out-performs the benchmark.

How children's television networks in the United States have adapted to the changing digital habits of their young audiences: A comparative analysis between the Disney Channel and Nickelodeon

In the contemporary societies, many children are drawn to digital media, using it in ways that were initially unfathomable. Changing digital habits among young children have been affiliated to the rapid development, witnessed in the technological field. Prevalently, new forms of technology are being developed and ingrained into young children’s day-to-day activities. The emergence of new forms of technology has in turn prompted significant changes in digital and media consumption particularly, among young children. Changes in media and digital consumption have in turn instigated linear transition in the analogue media industries. This has resulted in analogue media networks working towards digitalizing their industries in a manner that will befit changing digital habits among young children. This report aims at establishing and analyzing the different ways in which children’s digital habits have changed and revolutionized. To achieve this, the report will critically examine the existing scope of knowledge, with reference to changing digital habits among young audiences. Further, the report also aims at establishing the manner in which children television networks have adapted to the changing digital habits among young audiences. To achieve this, the report will focus on two children television networks, Disney channel, and Nickelodeon. After which, a comparative analysis will be conducted to establish the changes made by each of these television channels, with the aim of adapting to the new digital habits among children.