The price of threat: the role of identity-safe marketplaces in predicting intergroup price sensitivity

In field experiments with subjects living either inside or outside Brazilian slums (n=955), we show that consumers living in slums are less price sensitive, in opposition with recent price sensitivity research. Comparing slum and non-slum dwellers, we found that negatively stereotyped consumers (e.g. slum dwellers) were more likely to pay higher amounts for friendlier customer service when facing social identity threats (SITs) in marketplaces such as banks. The mechanism which makes them less price sensitive is related to the perception of how other people evaluate their social groups, and we argue that they pay more because they are seeking identity-safe commercial relationships. This work, besides extending the literature in SITs, presents a perspective for the exchange between economics and psychology on price sensitivity, showing that consumers living in slums are willing to pay more to avoid possibly social identity threating experiences.

On the efficiency of the Argentinean electricity wholesale market

This paper discusses two key aspects regarding the efficiency of the Argentinean Electricity Market. Using hourly data on prices, marginal costs, and operational status of generators, it will be argued that, unlike the former British and Californian electricity spot markets, this market is not subject to the conventional forms of exercise of market power by generators. We then use Chao's (1983) model of optimal configuation of electricity supply to evaluate the social desirability of the change in the supply pattern of the Argentinean electricity industry, which took place throughout the last ten years.

Synergies and price trends in sequential auctions

In this paper we consider sequential auctions where an individual’s value for a bundle of objects is either greater than the sum of the values for the objects separately (positive synergy) or less than the sum (negative synergy). We show that the existence of positive synergies implies declining expected prices. When synergies are negative, expected prices are increasing. There are several corollaries. First, the seller is indi¤erent between selling the objects simultaneously as a bundle or sequentially when synergies are positive. Second, when synergies are negative, the expected revenue generated by the simultaneous auction can be larger or smaller than the expected revenue generated by the sequential auction. In addition, in the presence of positive synergies, an option to buy the additional object at the price of the …rst object is never exercised in the symmetric equilibrium and the seller’s revenue is unchanged. Under negative synergies, in contrast, if there is an equilibrium where the option is never exercised, then equilibrium prices may either increase or decrease and, therefore, the net e¤ect on the seller’s revenue of the introduction of an option is ambiguous. Finally, we examine two special cases with asymmetric players. In the …rst case, players have distinct synergies. In this example, even if one player has positive synergies and the other has negative synergies, it is still possible for expected prices to decline. In the second case, one player wants two objects and the remaining players want one object each. For this example, we show that expected prices may not necessarily decrease as predicted by Branco (1997). The reason is that players with singleunit demand will generally bid less than their true valuations in the …rst period. Therefore, there are two opposing forces; the reduction in the bid of the player with multiple-demand in the last auction and less aggressive bidding in the …rst auction by the players with single-unit demand.

Unemployment insurance an analysis of optimal mechanisms under aggregate shocks

The purpose of this work is to provide a brief overview of the literature on the optimal design of unemployment insurance systems by analyzing some of the most influential articles published over the last three decades on the subject and extend the main results to a multiple aggregate shocks environment. The properties of optimal contracts are discussed in light of the key assumptions commonly made in theoretical publications on the area. Moreover, the implications of relaxing each of these hypothesis is reckoned as well. The analysis of models of only one unemployment spell starts from the seminal work of Shavell and Weiss (1979). In a simple and common setting, unemployment benefits policies, wage taxes and search effort assignments are covered. Further, the idea that the UI distortion of the relative price of leisure and consumption is the only explanation for the marginal incentives to search for a job is discussed, putting into question the reduction in labor supply caused by social insurance, usually interpreted as solely an evidence of a dynamic moral hazard caused by a substitution effect. In addition, the paper presents one characterization of optimal unemployment insurance contracts in environments in which workers experience multiple unemployment spells. Finally, an extension to multiple aggregate shocks environment is considered. The paper ends with a numerical analysis of the implications of i.i.d. shocks to the optimal unemployment insurance mechanism.

Fuel ethanol price drivers in the Atlantic basin : Brazil & the U.S. traders perspectives

Como a oportunidade de exportação de etanol combustível é muito recente, o agronegócio carece de literatura para formação de gestores e estrategistas. Este trabalho tem como objetivo descrever o mecanismo de formação de preços de etanol tanto no Brasil como nos Estados Unidos da America. Decupei as variáveis que impactam na formação de preços, custo de produção de etanol de cana-de-açúcar, custo da logística e desidratação no Caribe, custo do etanol de milho e fiz algumas análises de cenários de formação de preços das principais variáveis e consegui organizar este conhecimento em um gráfico que contém no eixo superior preço do etanol hidratado na usina no Brasil e no eixo inferior o preço do bushel de milho em Chicago cujas interceções nas retas da taxa do dólar e do preço do gás natural, fornecem no eixo Y o preço do produto no porto de Nova York, ficando uma visualização simples das possibilidades da janela de exportação. A metodologia permite assumir diferentes cenários de oferta, demanda e preços e estabelecer diferentes estratégias de comercialização.

Ensaios em econometria aplicada

Este tese é composta por quatro ensaios sobre aplicações econométricas em tópicos econômicos relevantes. Os estudos versam sobre consumo de bens não-duráveis e preços de imóveis, capital humano e crescimento econômico, demanda residencial de energia elétrica e, por fim, periodicidade de variáveis fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. No primeiro artigo, "Non-Durable Consumption and Real-Estate Prices in Brazil: Panel-Data Analysis at the State Level", é investigada a relação entre variação do preço de imóveis e variação no consumo de bens não-duráveis. Os dados coletados permitem a formação de um painel com sete estados brasileiros observados entre 2008- 2012. Os resultados são obtidos a partir da estimação de uma forma reduzida obtida em Campbell e Cocco (2007) que aproxima um modelo estrutural. As estimativas para o caso brasileiro são inferiores as de Campbell e Cocco (2007), que, por sua vez, utilizaram microdados britânicos. O segundo artigo, "Uma medida alternativa de capital humano para o estudo empírico do crescimento", propõe uma forma de mensuração do estoque de capital humano que reflita diretamente preços de mercado, através do valor presente do fluxo de renda real futura. Os impactos dessa medida alternativa são avaliados a partir da estimação da função de produção tradicional dos modelos de crescimento neoclássico. Os dados compõem um painel de 25 países observados entre 1970 e 2010. Um exercício de robustez é realizado para avaliar a estabilidade dos coeficientes estimados diante de variações em variáveis exógenas do modelo. Por sua vez, o terceiro artigo "Household Electricity Demand in Brazil: a microdata approach", parte de dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) para mensurar a elasticidade preço da demanda residencial brasileira por energia elétrica. O uso de microdados permite adotar abordagens que levem em consideração a seleção amostral. Seu efeito sobre a demanda de eletricidade é relevante, uma vez que esta demanda é derivada da demanda por estoque de bens duráveis. Nesse contexto, a escolha prévia do estoque de bens duráveis (e consequentemente, a escolha pela intensidade de energia desse estoque) condiciona a demanda por eletricidade dos domicílios. Finalmente, o quarto trabalho, "Interpolação de Variáveis Fiscais Brasileiras usando Representação de Espaço de Estados" procurou sanar o problema de baixa periodicidade da divulgação de séries fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. Através de técnica de interpolação baseada no Filtro de Kalman, as séries mensais não observadas são projetadas a partir de séries bimestrais parcialmente observadas e covariáveis mensais selecionadas.

Potencial de redução na demanda por energia elétrica no Rio de Janeiro através do modelo de preço variável

A energia elétrica é fundamental para o desenvolvimento de qualquer país e o Brasil atravessa atualmente uma crise energética devido ao baixo nível de seus reservatórios, então diversos temas sobre o sistema elétrico brasileiro vêm à tona a fim de dar mais confiabilidade e evitar futuros racionamentos, permitindo assim que a escassez de energia não seja um impeditivo para o crescimento econômico do país. O presente estudo calcula o potencial de redução de demanda por energia elétrica no estado do Rio de Janeiro através do modelo de preço variável, que consiste em ter tarifas distintas para o horário de ponta e fora de ponta. Este é um entre diversos programas de eficiência energética existentes no mundo atualmente. Para tal cálculo as principais premissas são a projeção de demanda máxima coincidente, o número de consumidores por classe e a elasticidade preço da demanda por energia elétrica. A partir dai são sugeridos três cenários de penetração de AMI (Advanced Metering infrastructure), e três cenários de variação de preço, chegando assim a nove resultados possíveis.

Market coupling in the power markets

The thesis analyses the European Unions’ effort to create an integrated pan-European electricity market based on “market coupling” as the proposed allocation mechanism for interconnector transfer capacity. Thus, the thesis’ main focus is if market coupling leads to a price convergence in interlinked markets and how it affects the behavior of electricity price data. The applied research methods are a qualitative, structured literature review and a quantitative analysis of electricity price data. The quantitative analysis relies on descriptive statistics of absolute price differentials and on a Cointegration analysis according to Engle & Granger (1987)’s two step approach. Main findings are that implicit auction mechanisms such as market coupling are more efficient than explicit auctions. Especially the method of price coupling leads to a price convergence in involved markets, to social welfare gains and reduces market power of producers, as shown on the example of the TLC market coupling. The market coupling initiative between Germany and Denmark, on the other hand, is evaluated as less successful and illustrates the complexity and difficulties of implementing market coupling initiatives. The cointegration analysis shows that the time series were already before the coupling date cointegrated, but the statistical significance increased. The thesis suggests that market coupling leads to a price convergence of involved markets and thus functions as method to create a single, integrated European electricity market.

Implications of ernbodied technological change for development economics

Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

The impact of negative social environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners

The present work analyzes the impact of negative social / environmental events on the market value of supply chain partners. The study offers a contextualized discussion around important concepts which are largely employed on the Operations Management and Management literature in general. Among them, the developments of the literature around supply chains, supply chain management, corporate social responsibility, sustainable development and sustainable supply chain management are particularly addressed, beyond the links they share with competitive advantage. As for the theoretical bases, the study rests on the Stakeholder Theory, on the discussion of the efficient-market hypothesis and on the discussion of the adjustment of stock prices to new information. In face of such literature review negative social / environmental events are then hypothesized as causing negative impact in the market value of supply chain partners. Through the documental analysis of publicly available information around 15 different cases (i.e. 15 events), 82 supply chain partners were identified. Event studies for seven different event windows were conducted on the variation of the stock price of each supply chain partner, valuing the market reaction to the stock price of a firm due to triggering events occurred in another. The results show that, in general, the market value of supply chain partners was not penalized in response to such announcements. In that sense, the hypothesis derived from the literature review is not confirmed. Beyond that, the study also provides a critical description of the 15 cases, identifying the companies that have originated such events and their supply chain partners involved.

Lighting and violent crimes: evaluating the effect of an electrification policy in rural Brazil on violent crime reduction

This paper estimates the effect of lighting on violent crime reduction. We explore an electrification program (LUZ PARA TODOS or Light for All - LPT) adopted by the federal government to expand electrification to rural areas in all Brazilian municipalities in the 2000s as an exogenous source of variation in electrification expansion. Our instrumental variable results show a reduction in homicide rates (approximately five homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) on rural roads/urban streets when a municipality moved from no access to full coverage of electricity between 2000 and 2010. These findings are even more significant in the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil, where rates of electrification are lower than those of the rest of the country and, thus, where the program is concentrated. In the north (northeast), the number of violent deaths on the streets per 100,000 inhabitants decreased by 48.12 (13.43). This moved a municipality at the 99th percentile (75th) to the median (zero) of the crime distribution of municipalities. Finally, we do not find effects on violent deaths in households and at other locations. Because we use an IV strategy by exploring the LPT program eligibility criteria, we can interpret the results as the estimated impact of the program on those experiencing an increase in electricity coverage due to their program eligibility. Thus, the results represent local average treatment effects of lighting on homicides.

Volatility of returns, variations in prices and volume traded: evidence from the main stocks in Brazil

We study the relationship between the volatility and the price of stocks and the impact that variables such as past volatility, financial gearing, interest rates, stock return and turnover have on the present volatility of these securities. The results show the persistent behavior of volatility and the relationship between interest rate and volatility. The results also showed that a reduction in stock prices are associated with an increase in volatility. Finally we found a greater trading volume tends to increase the volatility.