Infrastructure privatization in a neoclassical economy : macroeconomic impact and welfare computation

In this paper a competitive general equilibrium model is used to investigate the welfare and long run allocation impacts of privatization. There are two types of capital in this model economy, one private and the other initially public ("infrastructure"), and a positive externality due to the latter is assumed. A benevolent government can improve upon decentralized allocation internalizing the externality, but it introduces distortions in the economy through the finance of its investments. It is shown that even making the best case for public action - maximization of individuals' welfare, no• operation inefficiency and free supply to society of infrastructure services - privatization is welfare improving for a large set of economies. Hence, arguments against privatization based solely on under-investment are incorrect, as this maybe the optimal action when the financing of public investment are considered. When operation inefficiency is introduced in the public sector, gains from privatization are much higher and positive for most reasonable combinations of parameters .

Técnicas de suavização aplicadas à caracterização de fontes sísmicas e à análise probabilística de ameaça sísmica

A avaliação de risco sísmico, fundamental para as decisões sobre as estruturas de obras de engenharia e mitigação de perdas, envolve fundamentalmente a análise de ameaça sísmica. Calcular a ameaça sísmica é o mesmo que calcular a probabilidade de que certo nível de determinada medida de intensidade em certo local durante um certo tempo seja excedido. Dependendo da complexidade da atividade geológica essas estimativas podem ser bas- tante sofisticadas. Em locais com baixa sismicidade, como é o caso do Brasil, o pouco tempo (geológico) de observação e a pouca quantidade de informação são fontes de muitas incer- tezas e dificuldade de análise pelos métodos mais clássicos e conhecidos que geralmente consideram, através de opiniões de especialistas, determinadas zonas sísmicas. Serão discutidas algumas técnicas de suavização e seus fundamentos como métodos al- ternativos ao zoneamento, em seguida se exemplifica suas aplicações no caso brasileiro.

Infrastructure privatization in a neoclassical economy: macroeconomic impact and welfare computation

In this paper a competi tive general equilibrium model is used to investigate the welfare and long run allocation impacts of privatization. There are two types of capital in this model economy, one private and the other initially public ("infrastructure"), and a positive extemality due to the latter is assumed. A benevolent governrnent can improve upon decentralized allocation intemalizing the extemality, but it introduces distortions in the economy through the finance of its investments. It is shown that even making the best case for public action - maximization of individuais' welfare, no operation inefficiency and free supply to society of infrastructure services - privatization is welfare improving for a large set of economies. Hence, arguments against privatization based solely on under-investment are incorrect, as this maybe the optimal action when the financing of public investment are considered. When operation inefficiency is introduced in the public sector, gains from privatization are much higher and positive for most reasonable combinations of parameters.