Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Special interests and political business cycles

In this paper we bridge the gap between special interest politics and political business cycle literature. We build a framework where the interplay between the lobby power of special interest groups and the voting power of the majority of the population leads to political business cycles. We apply our set up to explain electoral cycles in government expenditure composition, aggregate expenditures and real exchange rates.

On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).

Optimal exchange rate policy, optimal incomplete taxation and business cycles

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recur- rent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is usually followed by an economic downturn (boom). This essay explains why a benevolent government should pursue Þscal and monetary policies that lead to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. It is shown that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average de- valuation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. A currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).

Common factors in Latin America's business cycles

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external trade, fiscal and financial variables. The analysis spans the 135 years since the insertion of these economies into the global economy in the 1870s. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cyc1e chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that ali four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cyc1e volatility and persistence relative to advanced country benchmarks. Volatility changed considerably over time, however, being very high during early formative decades through the Great Depression, and again during the 1970s and ear1y 1980s, before declining sharply in three of the four countries. We also identify a sizeable common factor across the four economies which variance decompositions ascribe mostly to foreign interest rates and shocks to commodity terms of trade.

International Business Research Forum

Professor Rodrigo Bandeira de Mello fala sobre o International Business Research Forum (IBRF)

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

Endogenous cycles in a Stiglitz-Weiss economy

The literature on financiaI imperfections and business cycles has focused on propagation mechanisms. In this pape r we model apure reversion mechanism, such that the economy may converge to a two period equilibrium cycle. This mechanism confirms that financiaI imperfections may have a dramatic amplification effect. Unlike in some related models, contracts are complete. Indexation is not assumed away. The welfare properties of a possible stabilizing policy are analyzed. The model i tself is a dynamic extension of the well-known Stigli tz-Weiss model of lending under moral hazard. Although stylized the model still captures some important features of credit cycles.

Export-led recoveries in small open industrialized economies

This paper studies the role of Vertical Specialization-based trade and foreign damand push as elements capable of explaining export-led recoveries in small open industrialized economies. The empirical evidence on export-led recoveries is reviewed. Data supporting the growing importance of vertical specialization for international trade are presented. I compare the performance of two versions of a small open economy model, calibrated to mimic Canadian Business Cycles. The …rst one is based upon Schmitt-Grohe(1998). The second incorporates Vertical- Specialization-based trade. I show that an arti…cial economy featuring Vertical-Specializationbased trade in conjunction with an exogenous AR(2) process for foreign output displays improved impulse responses to a foreign output shock and is able to mimic the contribution of Canadian exports to output growth during economic recoveries.

Business diplomacy: the compass rose of foreign markets

With transnational corporations (TNCs) around the world today numbering over 60,000 and more than 800,000 affiliates working abroad, it is easy to understand how modern day international business could have transformed into a major global player serving at the axis of politics, social and environmental responsibility. Additionally, with accountability to a large variety of both public and private stakeholders, all exerting significant power and influence, today’s global corporate structure is reinventing modern international relations, and in some cases, dominating it. (Muldoon 2005) This transformative nature of globalization today can also serve as a source of friction among this growing chorus of players and is bringing irreversible change to these relationships and how they impact and influence business around the world. (Muldoon 2005) From the largest to the smallest international corporation seeking to expand into new international markets, the challenges that come with corporate ambition can mean the difference between success and failure and they find a home at the intersection of international relations, diplomacy and economics. To successfully navigate these challenges, especially in emerging economies, a company must now factor in more than just the “bottom line” and address complex issues that include human rights differences, environmental regulations, labor rights and values of each country. (Henisz, 2014) Combined with modern-day mobility achieved through technology and the Internet, corporations today have a great capacity to reach targeted audiences and establish a presence, but it is this same technology that also allows for immediate response to any corporate action. This constant, 24-hour news cycle, where everyone is made to be a real-time reporter through social media, has created a situation that demonstrably necessitates the ability to not only 3 respond immediately, but also to have real-time understanding of the challenges faced by a corporation as it looks toward global expansion. International Business Diplomacy, or simply Business Diplomacy as it will be referred to in this paper, combines all of these nuanced factors into a relatively new discipline that offers companies looking to expand into new markets, guidelines and directives so that they can more strategically map corporate direction, limit risk and achieve their objectives. This paper will examine the history of diplomacy and how the concept of statecraft became intertwined with the increasing globalization of business. Following a scholarly examination of how modern Business Diplomacy came into being, and the unique challenges that come with its application, particularly the liabilities needed to be overcome, this paper will apply the concept to the Brazilian aerospace manufacturer Embraer, tracking its strategic emergence from a small, regionally focused aircraft producer to global leader in the regional and executive jet market platforms. It will then examine Embraer’s entrance into the Chinese market, where the company suffered from several missteps and eventually had to refocus its business model from commercial to executive jets. Finally, as globalization continues to “emancipate international business from its institutional and social constraints,” (Muldoon 2005) this paper will address how the relatively new and emerging discipline of Business Diplomacy is continuing to mature and grow in stature and influence through the proposition of a new challenge or “liability” that corporations must also overcome as they expand into new markets. Through the analysis of Embraer in China, this paper will introduce the Liability of Governance to the lexicon of Business Diplomacy and propose specific steps that a company can undertake to avoid it.

Information asymmetry and transaction costs in a cross-cultural business transaction

The intent of this paper is to provide a practitioners insight into the present and foreseeable future of problem of transaction cost economics related to culture and business etiquette that may increase the of complexity of business communication. We will also explore whether it impacts participant's mindsets regarding opportunistic or passive aggressive behavior. We will study the role of culture, ethics, information asymmetry, and legal systems regarding their importance towards the business contracts and lack of knowledge in local environments. We will make connections to contract theory strategies and objectives and recommend business practices. Furthermore, economic theory explores the role of the impossibility of the perfect contract. Historical and present day operational factors are examined for the determination of forward-looking contract law indications worldwide. This paper is intended provide a practitioners view with a global perspective of a multinational, mid-sized and small corporations giving consideration in a non-partisan and non-nationalistic view, yet examines the individual characteristics of the operational necessities and obligations of any corporation. The study will be general, yet cite specific articles to each argument and give adequate consideration to the intricacies of the global asymmetry of information. This paper defends that corporations of any kind and size should be aware of the risk of international business etiquette and cultural barriers that might jeopardize the savings you could obtain from engaging international suppliers.