Social impact bond feasibility study APAC Portugal: enhancing ex-offenders’ lives

Este estudo é uma análise à eficácia de um Social Impact Bond como como instrumento financeiro no modelo de intervenção da APAC Portugal. O objetivo é o de melhorar a vida de ex-criminosos e reduzir os índices de reincidência de modo a apoiar a sua reinserção na sociedade após a libertação. Enquanto os custos de funcionamento de um estabelecimento prisional forem suportados pelo sector público, como é de lei, o modelo inovador de intervenção terá de encontrar um meio alternativo de financiamento. Sendo assim, testámos a rentabilidade de um Social Impact Bond através de um bem estruturado modelo Excel que simula o mecanismo de investimento, tendo os resultados demonstrado que um Social Impact Bond pode, de facto, financiar o modelo de intervenção da APAC Portugal de forma eficaz.

A pontencialidade educativa da pena de prestação de serviços à comunidade

Este trabalho objetiva constatar se a pena de prestação de serviços à comunidade, quando aplicada, tem um papel educativo junto ao infrator beneficiário da medida, seja como substituta da pena privativa de liberdade, após a condenação, seja como medida alternativa, após transação penal em sede do Juizado Especial Criminal. Com base no conceito de educação apresentado pelo professor Paulo Freire, busca identificar, através de entrevistas com beneficiários, se existe um trabalho conscientizador ( mediante troca de experiências e atividades educativas) desenvolvido pelas instituições receptoras dos beneficiários da medida e, se a reinserção imediata do infrator na sociedade viabiliza essa conscientização sobre a sua conduta criminosa. Assim, pretende constatar se a referida medida tem apenas um caráter punitivo ou vem desenvolvendo uma função educativa durante a sua execução.

Essays in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics

This thesis is comprised of three chapters. The first article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of elderly American males and investigates the factors that may account for the changes in retirement between 1950 and 2000. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement. In the second article, I develop an overlapping generations model of criminal behavior, which extends prior research on crime by taking into account individuals' labor supply decisions and the stigma effect that affects convicted offenders, lowering their likelihood of employment. I use the model to guide a quantitative assessment of the determinants of crime and of a counterfactual experiment in which an income redistribution policy is thought as an alternative to greater law enforcement. The model economy considered in this paper is populated by heterogeneous agents who live for a realistic number of periods, have preferences over consumption and leisure, and differ in terms of their age, their skills as well as their employment shocks. In addition, savings may be precautionary and allow partial insurance against the labor income shocks. Because of the lack of full insurance, this model generates an endogenous distribution of wealth across consumers, enabling us to assess the welfare implications of the redistribution policy experiment. I calibrated the model using the US data for 1980 and then use the model to investigate the changes in criminality between 1980 and 1996. The main results that come out of this study are: 1) Law enforcement policy was the most important factor behind the fall in criminality in the period, while the increase in inequality was the most important single factor promoting crime; 2) Stigmatization is not a free-cost crime control policy; 3) Income redistribution can be a powerful alternative policy to fight crime. Finally, the third article studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

Conditional treatment and its effect on recidivism

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the 1985 ”Employment Services for Ex-Offenders” (ESEO) program on recidivism. Initially, the sample has been split randomly in a control group and a treatment group. However, the actual treatment (mainly being job related counseling) only takes place conditional on finding a job, and not having been arrested, for those selected in the treatment group. We use a multiple proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for job seach and recidivism time which incorporates the conditional treatment effect. We find that the program helps to reduce criminal activity, contrary to the result of the previous analysis of this data set. This finding is important for crime prevention policy.

Essays on cartels and market distortions

This dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the Industrial Organization field, this empirical work is applied to the Brazilian retail gasoline market. The first essay investigates the existence of spillover effects from cartel activity. The second essay relates the well-known economic puzzle of asymmetric cost pass through to prices with the existence of horizontal coordination - cartels - in the relevant market. Finally, the third essay investigates the effectiveness of antitrust interventions inside the offenders and the consequences of its disclosure in related markets.