Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets

In this paper, we focus on the tails of the unconditional distribution of Latin American emerging markets stock returns. We explore their implications for portfolio diversification according to the safety tirst principIe, tirst proposed by Roy (1952). We tind that the Latin American emerging markets have signiticantly fatter tails than industrial markets. especially, the lower tail of the distrihution. We consider the implication of the safety tirst principIe for a U .S. investor who creates a diversitied portfolio using Latin American stock markets. We tind that a U.S. investor gains by adding Latin American equity markets to her purely domestic portfolio. For different parameter specitications. we finu a more realistic asset allocation than the one suggested by the Iiterature haseu on the traditional mean-variance framework.

Import substitution and economic growth

In spite of Latin America s dismal economic performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. Furthermore, pro- ductivity (measured as TFP) grew at low rates in comparison with the U.S. In this paper, we suggest that all these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our analytical framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital- intensive sector. We assume an economy that is initially open and specialized in the production of labor-intensive goods. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Speci cally, for a su¢ ciently small country, there will be no long-run growth in income per capita, but capital per capita will increase. As a result, measured TFP will fall.

Toward convergence? The brazilian stock market concentration and the role of private equity in its diversification

Using quantitative data obtained from public available database, this paper discusses the difference between of the Brazilian GDP and the Brazilian Stock Exchange industry breakdown. I examined if, and to what extent, the industry breakdowns are similar. First, I found out that the Stock Exchange industry breakdown is overwhelming different from the GDP, which may present a potential problem to asset allocation and portfolio diversification in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a convergence between the GDP and the Stock Exchange in the last 9 years. Third, it became clear that the Privatizations in the late 90’s and IPO market from 2004 to 2008 change the dynamics of the Brazilian Stock Exchange. And fourth, I identified that Private Equity and Venture Capital industry may play an important role on the portfolio diversification in Brazil.

International portfolio diversification: evidence from emerging markets

Taking into account previous research we could assume to be beneficial to diversify investments in emerging economies. We investigate in the paper International Portfolio Diversification: evidence from Emerging Markets if it still holds true, given the assumption of larger world markets integration. Our results suggest a wide spread positive time-varying correlations of emerging and developed markets. However, pair-wise cross-country correlations gave evidence that emerging markets have low integration with developed markets. Consequently, we evaluate out-of-sample performance of a portfolio with emerging equity countries, confirming the initial statement that it has a better a risk-adjusted performance over a purely developed markets portfolio.

How resource rich countries attract foreign direct investments: a study of Western Asian countries and strategies of industrialization and diversification

Fuel is a self-depleting resource and long term dependency on this commodity alone will not suffice. An export trade oriented approach can lead to faster industrialization while diversification leads to economic sustainable growth. This research seeks to understand how countries compete for foreign direct investments, and how certain activities have the most impact in the competitive global marketplace. Research suggests that when companies decide to invest abroad, they seek only to find countries that facilitate their strategic objectives. The results conclude with appropriate levels of government accountability, credibility and visibility with the private sector, foreign direct investment is attracted by policy advocacy and policy reform. By reviewing countries such as United Arab Emirates in direct comparison to Western Asian countries, including Kuwait and Iraq with high levels of fuel exports, along with Qatar with optimistic marketplace indicators and plentitude of skills and capabilities – research seems to suggest that despite high capabilities and attractive GDP, promotional investment activities yield the highest returns using policy advocacy and reform.

Why has productivity growth stagnated in most Latin American countries since the neo-liberal reforms?

Latin America’s economic performance since the beginning of neo-liberal reforms has been poor; this not only contrasts with its own performance pre-1980, but also with what has happened in Asia since 1980. I shall argue that the weakness of the region’s new paradigm is rooted as much in its intrinsic flaws as in the particular way it has been implemented. Latin America’s economic reforms were undertaken primarily as a result of the perceived economic weaknesses of the region — i.e., there was an attitude of ‘throwing in the towel’ vis-à-vis the previous state-led import substituting industrialisation strategy, because most politicians and economists interpreted the 1982 debt crisis as conclusive evidence that it had led the region into a cul-de-sac. As Hirschman has argued, policymaking has a strong component of ‘path-dependency’; as a result, people often stick with policies after they have achieved their aims, and those policies have become counterproductive. This leads to such frustration and disappointment with existing policies and institutions that is not uncommon to experience a ‘rebound effect’. An extreme example of this phenomenon is post-1982 Latin America, where the core of the discourse of the economic reforms that followed ended up simply emphasising the need to reverse as many aspects of the previous development (and political) strategies as possible. This helps to explain the peculiar set of priorities, the rigidity and the messianic attitude with which the reforms were implemented in Latin America, as well as their poor outcome. Something very different happened in Asia, where economic reforms were often intended (rightly or wrongly) as a more targeted and pragmatic mechanism to overcome specific economic and financial constraints. Instead of implementing reforms as a mechanism to reverse existing industrialisation strategies, in Asia they were put into practice in order to continue and strengthen ambitious processes of industrialisation.