Are price limits on futures markets that cool?: evidence from the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazilian futures markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the S˜ao Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. The results indicate that the conditional mean features a floor cool-off effect, whereas the conditional variance significantly increases as the price approaches the upper limit. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect in the conditional mean so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic significance. The in-sample Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider, whereas out-of-sample results evince similar performances.

Comparing value-at-risk methodologies

In this paper, we compare four different Value-at-Risk (V aR) methodologies through Monte Carlo experiments. Our results indicate that the method based on quantile regression with ARCH effect dominates other methods that require distributional assumption. In particular, we show that the non-robust methodologies have higher probability to predict V aRs with too many violations. We illustrate our findings with an empirical exercise in which we estimate V aR for returns of S˜ao Paulo stock exchange index, IBOVESPA, during periods of market turmoil. Our results indicate that the robust method based on quantile regression presents the least number of violations.

Law and narrative: a life history interview with a Brazilian jurist

This article discusses some issues in communicating experience, based on a life history interview with 83-year-old Brazilian jurist Evandro Lins e Silva conducted by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation’s oral history program (Centro de Pesquisa e Documentação de História Contemporânea do Brasil, or CPDOC) between August 1994 and January 1995.1The text focuses especially on two images used by the interviewee, which consolidate both the experiences that have been communicated to him and the experience that he himself endeavors to communicate regarding his activities as an attorney and the status of truth within the field of law.

20 experiências de gestão pública e cidadania

Os 20 projetos apresentados nesta publicação são os finalistas, entre os 629 inscritos do primeiro ano de atividade do Programa Gestão Pública e Cidadania, para disseminação e premiação de inovações de governos subnacionais brasileiros, fruto de iniciativa conjunta da Fundação Getulio Vargas de São Paulo (EAESP/FGV) e da Fundação Ford